Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NYSE · Earnings Dossier
TGT earnings intelligence
Target CorporationConsumer Defensive · Discount Stores · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Mixed earnings transmission
Delivery and market response do not currently form a persistent directional pattern.
Evidence99/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Wednesday 19 August 2026
Before the open · Fiscal period ending 31 Jul 2026
68event risk
Elevated
Countdown7 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate2.21 USDprovider consensus
Estimate growth+7.8%versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement8.0%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Market price is leading earnings power; the spread is widening and has persisted through 0 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move26.5%2023-08-18 to 2026-08-07
Earnings move9.6%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread-16.9 ptsWidening
Current multiple18.8xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure31/100Low
Model confidence98/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Business quality supportive
Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive.
Beat rate75.0%9 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise+9.2%median 10.0%
Delivery streak44 consecutive beats
Average response+0.6%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation75%same directional sign
Surprise variability17.6 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth-17.6%year on year
Revenue growth0.5%year on year
Average surprise8.8%latest four quarters
SUE0.16standardised surprise
Net margin3.2%trailing basis
Cash conversion3.15xcash flow / net income
P/E19.7xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness100%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close149.70 USDcompleted week
13-week return20.6%price momentum
Fair-value gap26.2%price versus current fair value
Relative strength21.6exchange benchmark
Trend signalActiveweekly architecture
Next-week statePositive57.2%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period20 May 202630 Apr 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.71 / 1.46USD
Surprise+17.1%Beat
EPS growth+31.5%year on year
Revenue / growth25443000000+6.7% · USD
Next close / four weeks+3.3% / +11.3%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period3 Mar 202631 Jan 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.44 / 2.16USD
Surprise+13.0%Beat
EPS growth+1.2%year on year
Revenue / growth30453000000-1.5% · USD
Next close / four weeks+6.2% / +5.3%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period19 Nov 202531 Oct 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.78 / 1.71USD
Surprise+4.1%Beat
EPS growth-3.8%year on year
Revenue / growth25270000000-1.6% · USD
Next close / four weeks-2.5% / +8.0%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period20 Aug 202531 Jul 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.05 / 2.03USD
Surprise+1.0%Beat
EPS growth-20.2%year on year
Revenue / growth25211000000-0.9% · USD
Next close / four weeks-3.7% / -12.7%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period21 May 202530 Apr 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.30 / 1.65USD
Surprise-21.2%Miss
EPS growth-36.0%year on year
Revenue / growth23846000000-2.8% · USD
Next close / four weeks-4.4% / -3.3%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period4 Mar 202531 Jan 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.41 / 2.25USD
Surprise+7.1%Beat
EPS growth-19.1%year on year
Revenue / growth30915000000-3.1% · USD
Next close / four weeks-7.4% / -16.6%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period20 Nov 202431 Oct 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.85 / 2.30USD
Surprise-19.6%Miss
EPS growth-11.9%year on year
Revenue / growth25668000000+1.1% · USD
Next close / four weeks-17.1% / -10.8%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period21 Aug 202431 Jul 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.57 / 2.18USD
Surprise+17.9%Beat
EPS growth+42.8%year on year
Revenue / growth25452000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+10.8% / +5.8%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period22 May 202430 Apr 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.03 / 2.06USD
Surprise-1.5%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth24531000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-9.3% / -11.8%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period5 Mar 202431 Jan 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.98 / 2.41USD
Surprise+23.7%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth31919000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+9.3% / +14.1%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period15 Nov 202331 Oct 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.10 / 1.48USD
Surprise+41.9%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth25398000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+21.1% / +26.0%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period16 Aug 202331 Jul 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.80 / 1.42USD
Surprise+26.8%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+1.0% / -4.8%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.