Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NYSE · Earnings Dossier
MCD earnings intelligence
McDonald’s CorporationConsumer Cyclical · Restaurants · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Mixed earnings transmission
Delivery and market response do not currently form a persistent directional pattern.
Evidence99/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
No forward date is currently stored
The historical dossier remains available while the next calendar date is unconfirmed.
0event risk
Inactive
Countdown-calendar proximity
EPS estimate-provider consensus
Estimate growth-versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement2.7%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Earnings power is leading market price; the spread is stable and has persisted through 0 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move2.9%2023-08-25 to 2026-08-14
Earnings move13.4%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread10.5 ptsStable
Current multiple21.7xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure21/100Low
Model confidence92/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Business quality supportive
Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive.
Model qualification
The direction is sensitive to the comparison horizon.
Beat rate58.3%7 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise+0.9%median 1.1%
Delivery streak33 consecutive beats
Average response+1.2%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation43%same directional sign
Surprise variability2.9 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth4.7%year on year
Revenue growth6.3%year on year
Average surprise0.9%latest four quarters
SUE0.26standardised surprise
Net margin31.7%trailing basis
Cash conversion1.70xcash flow / net income
P/E22.0xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness93%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close272.83 USDcompleted week
13-week return-0.6%price momentum
Fair-value gap-3.4%price versus current fair value
Relative strength-18.6exchange benchmark
Trend signalInactiveweekly architecture
Next-week statePositive56.9%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period4 Aug 202630 Jun 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.38 / 3.32USD
Surprise+1.8%Beat
EPS growth+6.0%year on year
Revenue / growth7099000000+3.7% · USD
Next close / four weeks+1.4% / -completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period7 May 202631 Mar 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.83 / 2.74USD
Surprise+3.3%Beat
EPS growth+6.0%year on year
Revenue / growth6517000000+9.4% · USD
Next close / four weeks-3.8% / -2.6%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period11 Feb 202631 Dec 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.12 / 3.05USD
Surprise+2.3%Beat
EPS growth+10.2%year on year
Revenue / growth7009000000+9.7% · USD
Next close / four weeks+0.1% / +0.8%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period5 Nov 202530 Sep 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.22 / 3.35USD
Surprise-3.9%Miss
EPS growth-0.3%year on year
Revenue / growth7078000000+3.0% · USD
Next close / four weeks+0.4% / +4.5%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period6 Aug 202530 Jun 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.19 / 3.15USD
Surprise+1.3%Beat
EPS growth+7.4%year on year
Revenue / growth6843000000+5.4% · USD
Next close / four weeks+0.8% / +3.5%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period1 May 202531 Mar 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.67 / 2.67USD
Surprise0.0%In-Line
EPS growth-1.1%year on year
Revenue / growth5955000000-3.5% · USD
Next close / four weeks-1.5% / -0.7%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period10 Feb 202531 Dec 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.83 / 2.86USD
Surprise-1.0%Miss
EPS growth-4.1%year on year
Revenue / growth6388000000-0.3% · USD
Next close / four weeks+4.8% / +9.8%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period29 Oct 202430 Sep 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.23 / 3.20USD
Surprise+0.9%Beat
EPS growth+1.3%year on year
Revenue / growth6874000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+0.9% / -0.8%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period29 Jul 202430 Jun 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.97 / 3.07USD
Surprise-3.3%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth6490000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+9.8% / +14.9%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period30 Apr 202431 Mar 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.70 / 2.73USD
Surprise-1.1%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth6169000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-1.0% / -5.5%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period5 Feb 202431 Dec 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.95 / 2.83USD
Surprise+4.2%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth6406200000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-2.6% / -1.6%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period30 Oct 202330 Sep 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.19 / 2.99USD
Surprise+6.7%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+4.7% / +10.5%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.