Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NYSE · Earnings Dossier
RCL earnings intelligence
Royal Caribbean Cruises LtdConsumer Cyclical · Travel Services · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Delivery and acceptance aligned
Results have usually cleared estimates and the next completed weekly close has, on average, confirmed the delivery.
Evidence100/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Tuesday 27 October 2026
Time unconfirmed · Fiscal period ending 30 Sep 2026
37event risk
Moderate
Countdown76 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate6.26 USDprovider consensus
Estimate growth+8.9%versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement7.3%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Earnings power is leading market price; the spread is stable and has persisted through 12 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move231.8%2023-08-18 to 2026-08-07
Earnings move2141.1%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread1909.3 ptsStable
Current multiple19.6xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure88/100Extreme
Model confidence61/100Moderate
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Persistent earnings lead
Earnings power has led market price across several updates.
Business quality supportive
Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive.
Starting-base sensitivity
The three-year earnings move begins from an unusually depressed level; compare the shorter horizons before relying on its scale.
Model qualification
The three-year starting earnings level was unusually depressed.
Model qualification
The earnings move is exceptionally large and should be read with its quality confirmation.
Model qualification
The direction is sensitive to the comparison horizon.
Beat rate91.7%11 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise+10.2%median 8.0%
Delivery streak22 consecutive beats
Average response+2.4%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation63%same directional sign
Surprise variability8.9 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth22.2%year on year
Revenue growth8.7%year on year
Average surprise4.9%latest four quarters
SUE1.41standardised surprise
Net margin23.6%trailing basis
Cash conversion3.18xcash flow / net income
P/E19.4xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness100%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close320.00 USDcompleted week
13-week return16.9%price momentum
Fair-value gap49.3%price versus current fair value
Relative strength-2.7exchange benchmark
Trend signalActiveweekly architecture
Next-week statePositive55.5%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period28 Jul 202630 Jun 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate4.21 / 3.97USD
Surprise+6.0%Beat
EPS growth-3.9%year on year
Revenue / growth4832000000+6.5% · USD
Next close / four weeks+8.4% / -completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period30 Apr 202631 Mar 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.60 / 3.20USD
Surprise+12.5%Beat
EPS growth+32.8%year on year
Revenue / growth4452000000+11.3% · USD
Next close / four weeks-0.1% / -3.7%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period29 Jan 202631 Dec 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.80 / 2.80USD
Surprise0.0%In-Line
EPS growth+71.8%year on year
Revenue / growth4259000000+13.2% · USD
Next close / four weeks+13.5% / +10.1%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period28 Oct 202530 Sep 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate5.75 / 5.68USD
Surprise+1.2%Beat
EPS growth+10.6%year on year
Revenue / growth5139000000+5.2% · USD
Next close / four weeks-9.4% / -16.5%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period29 Jul 202530 Jun 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate4.38 / 4.08USD
Surprise+7.4%Beat
EPS growth+36.4%year on year
Revenue / growth4538000000+10.4% · USD
Next close / four weeks-10.9% / -2.3%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period29 Apr 202531 Mar 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.71 / 2.53USD
Surprise+7.0%Beat
EPS growth+53.1%year on year
Revenue / growth3999000000+7.3% · USD
Next close / four weeks+8.5% / +13.3%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period28 Jan 202531 Dec 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.63 / 1.50USD
Surprise+8.7%Beat
EPS growth+30.4%year on year
Revenue / growth3761000000+12.9% · USD
Next close / four weeks+14.9% / +0.9%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period29 Oct 202430 Sep 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate5.20 / 5.03USD
Surprise+3.4%Beat
EPS growth+35.1%year on year
Revenue / growth4886000000+17.5% · USD
Next close / four weeks+0.6% / +20.2%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period25 Jul 202430 Jun 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.21 / 2.75USD
Surprise+16.7%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth4110000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-8.8% / -6.2%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period25 Apr 202431 Mar 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.77 / 1.31USD
Surprise+35.1%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth3728000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+8.8% / +9.8%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period1 Feb 202431 Dec 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.25 / 1.13USD
Surprise+10.6%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth3331419000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-0.0% / -1.3%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period26 Oct 202330 Sep 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.85 / 3.39USD
Surprise+13.6%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth4160000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+3.5% / +31.9%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.