147970 Elliott Wave Cycles

Investment view

What the current structure is saying

Based on weekly closing prices

Setup lifecycle

Triggered

The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation.

Now

Possible bearish Wave 3 declining is the highest-ranked admissible tactical count; cycle status is falling stack.

Wrong

The underlying directional structure fails beyond 104525.00; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.

Risk

The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.

The picture behind the setup

Weekly wave structure and decision levels

Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined marker is still forming. Decision lines show where the primary interpretation confirms or fails.

Close 30-week trend Fair Value Confirm Directional failure

Scenario comparison

How the valid counts compete

Possible bearish Wave 3 declining79%

A/B/C reset may be completing21%

Relative evidence among displayed counts—not forecast probabilities.

Pre-emptive downside check

Watch

36/100

Wave maturity0/25

Trend extension0/20

Range position0/15

Cycle rollover11/15

Multi-cycle risk15/15

Count instability10/10

Event proximity0/10

This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down.

Current read

The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 3 declining. Price is 3.4% above its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.

3 constructive · 0 neutral · 4 weak

What would confirm the risk

Evidence of deterioration

A confirmed weekly reversal toward or through the 30-week trend.
Cycle pressure rolling from cresting into falling.
Relative strength and market activity losing neutral.

What would challenge it

Bearish structure weakens above

KRW 104525.00

Confirmed on 2026-06-19. Treat this as a structure reference, not an automatic trading level.

4-week return -12.9%

13-week return -6.1%

26-week return 36.1%

52-week return 80.6%

From 52-week high -25.7%

26-week volatility 46.0%

Wave structure

Price, trend and the active swing

The chart uses a 8.1% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Primary admissible count

Possible bearish Wave 3 declining

79% evidence weight

Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities.

Confirm 80870.00 Invalidate 104525.00 Count stability Low · 0/100

PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 105055.00; Wave 2 104525.00.

PassWave 3 exceeds Wave 1Wave 1 96830.00; Wave 3 80870.00.

GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 94% of Wave 1.

GuidelineWave 3 extension is plausibleWave 3 is 2.88× Wave 1.

Strategic degreeNo valid count

Strategic degree uses a 13.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreeNo valid count

Primary degree uses a 8.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible bearish Wave 3 declining

Tactical degree uses a 5.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing -22.6%

5 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support -

No lower pivot in the current window

Nearest confirmed resistance 104525.00

Pivot from 2026-06-19

30-week trend 78241.10

Price is 3.4% from trend

Fair Value reference 40815.33

Price is 98.1% from Fair Value

52-week range position 59%

41200.81 low · 108885.00 high

Cycle timing

Are the main rhythms moving together?

Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.

Pressure phaseFalling

Current medium-term pressure direction

Multi-cycle alignmentFalling Stack

0/100 constructive · 100/100 risk

Nearest trough window9 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Nearest crest window8 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Multi-cycle rhythm

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

Nominal / estimated10w / 12w

Current phaseFalling

Period evidence14/100

FLD confirmationCrossed Down

Since last trough6w

Future trough interval3–9w

Nominal / estimated20w / 15w

Current phaseFalling

Period evidence39/100

FLD confirmationCrossed Down

Since last trough6w

Future trough interval5–13w

Nominal / estimated40w / 49w

Current phaseCresting

Period evidence74/100

FLD confirmationCrossed Up

Since last trough27w

Future trough interval17–27w

Nominal / estimated80w / 100w

Current phaseCresting

Period evidence89/100

FLD confirmationCrossed Up

Since last trough57w

Future trough interval30–56w

Confirmation

Does price behaviour support the wave count?

Each measure answers a different question. Agreement across several measures is more useful than one strong reading in isolation.

57% confirmation alignment

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

3.4% above trend

Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is not rising.

Falling

Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are weakening together.

Falling Stack

Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-3.8

Market activity

Participation is supportive

+35.0

Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-0.8

30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+61.7

Combined reading Defensive

3 constructive, 4 weak and 0 neutral measures.

This is a count of rules-based evidence, not a recommendation.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Risk and participation

How much movement sits behind the pattern?

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

52-week low41200.81

52-week high108885.00

Annualised volatility46.0%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range10.9%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-23.0%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume44%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

Market, peer and event context

Is the structure isolated—or supported by its environment?

Peer breadth tests whether the sector is moving with this security. Event and options context tests whether a catalyst could overwhelm otherwise valid technical structure.

Sector breadth

58% constructive

14 of 24 analysed peers have a bullish rule-valid primary count.

4% have improving cycle stacks Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.

Event collision

No near collision identified

No stored event or positioning warning currently conflicts with the count.

Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure.

Peer-state horizon	Independent samples	Positive	Median	Median excess vs ^KS11	10th–90th percentile
4 weeks	42	52%	0.1%	-13.3%	-9.4% to 10.9%
13 weeks	19	63%	4.2%	-27.9%	-13.6% to 16.1%
26 weeks	11	82%	22.9%	-62.3%	-3.0% to 32.6%

Historical context

What followed similar readings in this security?

Matches compare trend, cycle direction, momentum, relative strength and market dynamics using only information available at each historical week.

55 similar weekly states

Median forward return

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w

1.3%

13w

4.8%

26w

15.5%

Horizon	Matches	Positive	Median	Range
4 weeks	54	56%	1.3%	-21.6% to 35.9%
13 weeks	51	73%	4.8%	-8.4% to 48.0%
26 weeks	46	91%	15.5%	-10.0% to 112.1%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Evidence quality83/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history: 100/100
Indicator coverage: 100/100
Confirmed structure: 17/100

Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-07-24 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.

How the count is built

Rules, references and limitations

Swing points use weekly closes and a 8.1% adaptive reversal threshold.
The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.

Audit trail

Recent swing points

The exact points used to construct the visible wave map.

Date	Status	Type	Price	Move	Duration
2026-06-19	Confirmed	High	104525.00	-	0 weeks
2026-07-24	Forming	Low	80870.00	-22.6%	5 weeks

147970 Elliott Wave report