ASX · Basic Materials · Weekly analysis

TSO Elliott Wave report

Tesoro Gold Ltd

Latest close AUD 0.885 Week ending 18 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

A pullback is being tested

The wave pattern treats the recent decline as a pullback within a larger advance. A fresh rise is still something to confirm.

62/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Watching Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countA/B/C reset may be completing

A, B and C label a three-part correction. The outlined last point is still forming.

Other readingsThe other readings point the other way

4 of 7 available readings lean against the upward wave interpretation; 3 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

Main uncertaintyModerate count stability

The leading count changed 3 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in AUD · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-09-290.2850.4321.55
2023-10-060.330.4271.52
2023-10-130.2250.41951.47
2023-10-200.270.4141.44
2023-10-270.3150.41151.41
2023-11-030.3150.40751.37
2023-11-100.2850.4031.34
2023-11-170.270.39651.31
2023-11-240.2850.3841.29
2023-12-010.3750.3761.26
2023-12-080.450.3711.24
2023-12-150.4650.3671.22
2023-12-220.3750.361.19
2023-12-290.4350.3571.17
2024-01-050.4050.3541.15
2024-01-120.420.35351.12
2024-01-190.420.3541.09
2024-01-260.360.35251.07
2024-02-020.360.35051.05
2024-02-090.3750.34851.03
2024-02-160.3150.34651.01
2024-02-230.3150.3450.9976
2024-03-010.360.3440.9809
2024-03-080.450.34650.9657
2024-03-150.450.34850.9472
2024-03-220.4650.3540.9297
2024-03-290.450.3580.9141
2024-04-050.420.3610.8982
2024-04-120.450.3660.884
2024-04-190.510.37350.8673
2024-04-260.5550.38250.8538
2024-05-030.570.39050.8403
2024-05-100.6450.40450.8273
2024-05-170.630.41650.8133
2024-05-240.630.4270.8012
2024-05-310.600.43650.7889
2024-06-070.5850.44650.7774
2024-06-140.4950.4540.7668
2024-06-210.4350.4590.7558
2024-06-280.450.46150.7444
2024-07-050.450.46150.7312
2024-07-120.480.4620.7167
2024-07-190.4350.4640.7042
2024-07-260.420.46350.6955
2024-08-020.41250.46370.6868
2024-08-090.390.46270.6783
2024-08-160.390.46170.6713
2024-08-230.4650.46520.6643
2024-08-300.4650.46870.6568
2024-09-060.390.46920.6494
2024-09-130.4650.47420.6424
2024-09-200.4650.47920.6354
2024-09-270.5550.48570.6295
2024-10-040.510.48770.6235
2024-10-110.4950.48920.6174
2024-10-180.4950.49020.6106
2024-10-250.4650.49070.6056
2024-11-010.4350.49120.6006
2024-11-080.360.48820.5949
2024-11-150.3450.48270.5894
2024-11-220.3450.47570.584
2024-11-290.360.46870.5791
2024-12-060.390.46020.574
2024-12-130.300.44920.5685
2024-12-200.3150.43870.5634
2024-12-270.300.42870.5581
2025-01-030.30750.41950.5529
2025-01-100.300.4130.5467
2025-01-170.3450.410.5411
2025-01-240.3450.40650.5364
2025-01-310.360.40350.5316
2025-02-070.390.40050.5271
2025-02-140.4050.39950.5229
2025-02-210.4650.4010.5193
2025-02-280.480.40320.5152
2025-03-070.4050.40370.5101
2025-03-140.420.40470.5051
2025-03-210.480.40520.5008
2025-03-280.450.40470.4958
2025-04-040.420.40570.4911
2025-04-110.4050.40370.4859
2025-04-180.4650.40370.4814
2025-04-250.4650.40070.4776
2025-05-020.390.39670.4735
2025-05-090.4050.39370.4701
2025-05-160.420.39120.4657
2025-05-230.4050.38920.4612
2025-05-300.3750.38720.4571
2025-06-060.420.38920.4536
2025-06-130.4050.39120.4513
2025-06-200.3750.39220.449
2025-06-270.420.39420.4473
2025-07-040.4050.39470.4456
2025-07-110.450.39970.4443
2025-07-180.4650.40470.4432
2025-07-250.4350.40920.4419
2025-08-010.390.4120.4406
2025-08-080.510.4190.44
2025-08-150.5250.4250.4397
2025-08-220.540.43150.4397
2025-08-290.570.43850.4398
2025-09-050.6450.4470.4407
2025-09-120.7950.460.4424
2025-09-190.9450.4760.4453
2025-09-260.900.490.4479
2025-10-031.030.5110.451
2025-10-100.960.5290.4533
2025-10-171.050.5480.4564
2025-10-240.9450.56450.4592
2025-10-310.8550.5790.4615
2025-11-070.810.59250.4631
2025-11-140.9150.60750.4653
2025-11-211.020.6260.4683
2025-11-281.120.65020.472
2025-12-051.000.670.4753
2025-12-121.100.69270.4793
2025-12-191.310.72280.4846
2025-12-261.320.75420.4896
2026-01-021.270.78250.4938
2026-01-091.240.81030.4981
2026-01-161.230.83880.5028
2026-01-231.340.86950.5082
2026-01-301.200.89620.5128
2026-02-061.030.91550.5164
2026-02-131.040.93480.5203
2026-02-201.010.9540.5239
2026-02-271.070.97670.5278
2026-03-060.9950.99280.5311
2026-03-130.9151.010.5341
2026-03-200.921.020.5372
2026-03-270.8851.030.5404
2026-04-030.9051.040.5434
2026-04-101.031.050.5473
2026-04-171.001.050.5508
2026-04-241.071.050.5534
2026-05-011.131.060.5567
2026-05-081.051.060.5596
2026-05-150.9951.060.5622
2026-05-220.961.060.5646
2026-05-291.051.060.568
2026-06-050.9851.070.5711
2026-06-120.911.070.5742
2026-06-190.9751.070.5778
2026-06-260.941.060.5812
2026-07-030.8951.060.5843
2026-07-100.861.050.587
2026-07-170.881.040.5903
2026-07-240.821.020.5932
2026-07-310.851.010.5962
2026-08-070.900.99520.5995
2026-08-140.96250.98620.6032
2026-08-211.060.97680.608
2026-08-280.970.96890.6121
2026-09-041.000.96790.6164
2026-09-110.9850.96590.6208
2026-09-180.8850.96180.6247
4-week return -16.1%
13-week return -9.2%
26-week return -3.8%
52-week return -6.3%
From 52-week high -38.3%
26-week volatility 46.6%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 16.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

A/B/C reset may be completingPrimary swing size · Leading40%
Possible Wave 2 troughPrimary swing size19%
A/B/C reset may be completingStrategic swing size40%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

A/B/C reset may be completing

40% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm above 1.06 Fails below 0.885 Count stability Moderate · 52/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave B protects the correction originOrigin 1.13; Wave B 1.06.
PassWave C progresses beyond Wave AA length 0.31; C length 0.17.
GuidelineWave C is proportionate to Wave AWave C is 0.55× Wave A.
Strategic degreeA/B/C reset may be completing

Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreeA/B/C reset may be completing

Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreeA/B/C reset may be completing

Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing -16.1%

4 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.82

Pivot from 2026-07-24

Nearest confirmed resistance 1.06

Pivot from 2026-08-21

30-week trend 0.9618

Price is -8.0% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.6247

Price is 41.7% from Fair Value

52-week range position 19%

0.76 low · 1.44 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

4 of 7 available readings lean against the upward wave interpretation; 3 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

57% directional agreement

The other readings point the other way. 3 readings support the selected direction; 4 lean against it.

Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

8.0% below trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Rising
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are weakening together.

Falling Stack
Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-11.7
Market activity

Participation is supportive

+4.0
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+0.5
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-12.4
Balance of readings Defensive

3 constructive, 4 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive. This supports the upward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark. This challenges the upward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is negative. This challenges the upward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive. This supports the upward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is rising. That supports the recent upswing, but it does not establish how long it will last.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 75/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseRising

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementFalling Stack

0/100 constructive · 100/100 risk

Estimated next low6 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high13 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 8w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough8w
Possible next low6–10w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score1/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough8w
Possible next low4–10w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 50w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough3w
Possible next low23–71w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 89w
Current phaseCresting
Repeat score75/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough83w
Possible next low0–15w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 67.7% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 38.3% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 100/100.

  • Count instability

    The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability.

Downside risk check

Contained

20/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover0/15
Multi-cycle risk15/15
Count instability5/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.76
52-week high1.44
Annualised volatility46.6%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range8.0%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-67.7%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume172%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Most analysed peers have an upward wave count. That agrees with this report’s upward interpretation.

65% constructive

15 of 23 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

13% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^AXJOMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks35761%2.9%1.6%-11.0% to 19.8%
13 weeks14862%5.6%3.7%-15.1% to 35.3%
26 weeks9166%15.5%10.4%-18.3% to 55.1%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +1.2% across 46 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

46 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
1.2%
13w
0.0%
26w
8.3%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 46 50% 1.2% -20.0% to 72.2%
13 weeks 45 47% 0.0% -37.5% to 119.2%
26 weeks 45 62% 8.3% -52.5% to 209.0%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-18 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 16.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2025-03-21 Confirmed High 0.48 60.0% 10 weeks
2025-06-20 Confirmed Low 0.375 -21.9% 13 weeks
2025-07-18 Confirmed High 0.465 24.0% 4 weeks
2025-08-01 Confirmed Low 0.39 -16.1% 2 weeks
2025-10-17 Confirmed High 1.05 169.2% 11 weeks
2025-11-07 Confirmed Low 0.81 -22.9% 3 weeks
2026-01-23 Confirmed High 1.34 65.4% 11 weeks
2026-03-27 Confirmed Low 0.885 -34.0% 9 weeks
2026-05-01 Confirmed High 1.13 27.7% 5 weeks
2026-07-24 Confirmed Low 0.82 -27.4% 12 weeks
2026-08-21 Confirmed High 1.06 28.7% 4 weeks
2026-09-18 Forming Low 0.885 -16.1% 4 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context