KLS · Consumer Cyclical · Weekly analysis

7498 Elliott Wave report

Ralco Corporation Berhad

Latest close MYR 0.98 Week ending 18 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

The wave count points to an advance

The selected pattern describes a move upward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

63/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Watching Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countWave + Hurst trough confluence

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings point the other way

4 of 7 available readings lean against the upward wave interpretation; 3 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

Main uncertaintyModerate count stability

The leading count changed 3 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in MYR · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-09-290.790.9180.9066
2023-10-060.790.9070.9095
2023-10-130.780.89770.9125
2023-10-200.780.88870.9155
2023-10-270.780.8750.9186
2023-11-030.780.86330.9216
2023-11-100.7850.85220.9241
2023-11-170.830.84720.927
2023-11-240.830.84270.9288
2023-12-010.780.83550.9301
2023-12-080.790.82780.9311
2023-12-150.7950.82270.9298
2023-12-220.790.8190.9296
2023-12-290.7850.81580.9289
2024-01-050.800.81320.9289
2024-01-120.8050.81120.9287
2024-01-190.800.8110.9284
2024-01-260.7950.81080.9282
2024-02-020.7950.81050.9283
2024-02-090.800.80880.9277
2024-02-160.800.80870.9259
2024-02-230.800.80720.9241
2024-03-010.770.80450.9226
2024-03-080.730.79880.9202
2024-03-150.730.79550.9176
2024-03-220.760.79320.915
2024-03-290.760.78980.9118
2024-04-050.750.78620.9087
2024-04-120.730.78280.9052
2024-04-190.750.7820.9022
2024-04-260.730.780.8989
2024-05-030.730.7780.8957
2024-05-100.730.77630.8925
2024-05-170.780.77630.8896
2024-05-240.780.77630.8867
2024-05-310.730.77470.8835
2024-06-070.730.77280.8803
2024-06-140.740.76980.8778
2024-06-210.740.76680.8754
2024-06-280.730.76520.873
2024-07-050.760.76420.8712
2024-07-120.720.76170.869
2024-07-190.750.76030.8662
2024-07-260.730.75850.8634
2024-08-020.730.75620.8609
2024-08-090.7450.75420.8588
2024-08-160.7350.7520.8562
2024-08-230.720.74950.8542
2024-08-300.720.7470.852
2024-09-060.720.74430.8494
2024-09-130.720.74170.8466
2024-09-200.720.7390.8445
2024-09-270.730.73770.8428
2024-10-040.7250.73750.8412
2024-10-110.7250.73730.8395
2024-10-180.730.73630.8382
2024-10-250.7250.73520.8366
2024-11-010.7250.73430.8349
2024-11-080.7250.73420.8333
2024-11-150.7250.73330.8317
2024-11-220.7250.73320.8301
2024-11-290.7250.7330.8284
2024-12-060.780.73470.827
2024-12-130.780.73470.8255
2024-12-200.7250.73280.8236
2024-12-270.7550.73370.8223
2025-01-030.750.73430.8213
2025-01-100.760.7350.8203
2025-01-170.760.73570.8192
2025-01-240.750.73630.8181
2025-01-310.750.7360.8169
2025-02-070.750.7370.8157
2025-02-140.750.7370.8133
2025-02-210.750.73770.8113
2025-02-280.750.73830.8103
2025-03-070.700.73680.809
2025-03-140.700.73570.8067
2025-03-210.700.7350.805
2025-03-280.630.7320.803
2025-04-040.630.7290.8011
2025-04-110.550.72330.7987
2025-04-180.550.71770.7964
2025-04-250.550.71170.7943
2025-05-020.550.70580.7922
2025-05-090.550.700.7904
2025-05-160.550.6940.7886
2025-05-230.550.68820.7866
2025-05-300.550.68230.7842
2025-06-060.500.67480.782
2025-06-130.500.66730.7802
2025-06-200.500.65980.7789
2025-06-270.4950.65220.7766
2025-07-040.6850.6490.7755
2025-07-110.800.64970.7752
2025-07-180.900.65550.7755
2025-07-250.890.660.7757
2025-08-010.9650.66720.7764
2025-08-081.150.68020.7783
2025-08-151.100.69150.7802
2025-08-221.110.70350.782
2025-08-291.030.71280.7832
2025-09-051.020.72180.785
2025-09-121.000.73020.7869
2025-09-190.850.73350.7874
2025-09-260.880.73780.7889
2025-10-030.970.74680.7911
2025-10-101.010.75720.7937
2025-10-171.020.76780.7963
2025-10-240.8450.7750.7979
2025-10-310.780.780.7989
2025-11-070.7050.78520.7995
2025-11-140.710.79050.8001
2025-11-210.6550.7940.8002
2025-11-280.7650.80120.7974
2025-12-050.700.80620.7959
2025-12-120.880.81720.7964
2025-12-190.880.82820.7972
2025-12-260.7950.83630.7968
2026-01-020.800.84630.7966
2026-01-090.9150.86020.797
2026-01-160.930.87450.7976
2026-01-230.920.88870.7982
2026-01-300.9550.89770.7986
2026-02-060.9850.90380.799
2026-02-131.070.90950.80
2026-02-201.090.91620.801
2026-02-271.080.920.8017
2026-03-061.060.9170.8013
2026-03-131.080.91630.8014
2026-03-201.070.9150.8016
2026-03-271.060.9160.8007
2026-04-031.040.91670.8002
2026-04-101.040.9180.7996
2026-04-171.100.92630.8004
2026-04-241.080.9330.8012
2026-05-011.120.9380.802
2026-05-081.050.93930.8021
2026-05-151.000.93870.8025
2026-05-221.030.94480.8033
2026-05-291.030.95320.8043
2026-06-051.030.9640.8052
2026-06-120.980.9730.806
2026-06-190.900.98120.8066
2026-06-261.030.990.808
2026-07-030.950.99830.809
2026-07-100.981.000.8098
2026-07-170.9551.000.8108
2026-07-240.9851.010.8117
2026-07-310.9751.020.8125
2026-08-070.961.020.8129
2026-08-140.971.020.8138
2026-08-210.971.020.8146
2026-08-280.9651.020.8153
2026-09-040.9351.020.8158
2026-09-110.991.020.8168
2026-09-180.981.010.8181
4-week return 1.0%
13-week return 8.9%
26-week return -8.4%
52-week return 15.3%
From 52-week high -14.0%
26-week volatility 33.5%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 5.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible Wave 2 troughPrimary swing size · Leading28%
A/B/C reset may be completingPrimary swing size28%
Possible bearish Wave 2 crestStrategic swing size43%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Possible Wave 2 trough

28% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm above 0.99 Fails below 0.935 Count stability Moderate · 52/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 0.935; Wave 2 0.98.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 18% of Wave 1.
Strategic degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible Wave 2 trough

Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible Wave 2 trough

Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing -1.0%

1 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.935

Pivot from 2026-09-04

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.99

Pivot from 2026-09-11

30-week trend 1.01

Price is -3.3% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.8181

Price is 19.8% from Fair Value

52-week range position 67%

0.65 low · 1.14 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

4 of 7 available readings lean against the upward wave interpretation; 3 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

57% directional agreement

The other readings point the other way. 3 readings support the selected direction; 4 lean against it.

Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

3.3% below trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Troughing
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are improving together.

Rising Stack
Relative strength

Outperforming its benchmark

+4.1
Market activity

Participation is weak

-8.1
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-0.3
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-10.1
Balance of readings Defensive

3 constructive, 4 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is weak. This challenges the upward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Outperforming its benchmark. This supports the upward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is negative. This challenges the upward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is weak. This challenges the upward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is near a low and starting to turn. Look for price to confirm an upswing.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 18/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseTroughing

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementRising Stack

75/100 constructive · 25/100 risk

Estimated next low23 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high12 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 8w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough2w
Possible next low4–8w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 25w
Current phaseTroughing
Repeat score18/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough2w
Possible next low19–27w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 30w
Current phaseTroughing
Repeat score14/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough2w
Possible next low15–41w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 60w
Current phaseCresting
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough63w
Possible next low41–73w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 20.3% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 14.0% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Count instability

    The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability.

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 25/100.

Downside risk check

Contained

9/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover0/15
Multi-cycle risk4/15
Count instability5/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.65
52-week high1.14
Annualised volatility33.5%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range3.1%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-20.3%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume86%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

29% constructive

7 of 24 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

38% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^KLSEMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks14543%-0.8%-1.3%-7.7% to 6.2%
13 weeks8642%-1.9%-2.3%-15.6% to 11.1%
26 weeks7047%-0.6%-1.5%-19.8% to 26.9%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +0.0% across 65 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

65 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
0.0%
13w
1.9%
26w
-0.7%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 65 43% 0.0% -21.6% to 93.6%
13 weeks 65 59% 1.9% -28.6% to 109.1%
26 weeks 65 46% -0.7% -24.1% to 85.5%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-18 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 5.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2025-10-17 Confirmed High 1.02 20.0% 4 weeks
2025-11-21 Confirmed Low 0.655 -35.8% 5 weeks
2025-11-28 Confirmed High 0.765 16.8% 1 weeks
2025-12-05 Confirmed Low 0.70 -8.5% 1 weeks
2025-12-19 Confirmed High 0.88 25.7% 2 weeks
2025-12-26 Confirmed Low 0.795 -9.7% 1 weeks
2026-05-01 Confirmed High 1.12 40.9% 18 weeks
2026-06-19 Confirmed Low 0.90 -19.6% 7 weeks
2026-06-26 Confirmed High 1.03 14.4% 1 weeks
2026-09-04 Confirmed Low 0.935 -9.2% 10 weeks
2026-09-11 Confirmed High 0.99 5.9% 1 weeks
2026-09-18 Forming Low 0.98 -1.0% 1 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context