ASX · Energy · Weekly analysis

AEU Elliott Wave report

Atomic Eagle Limited

Latest close AUD 0.48 Week ending 11 Sep 2026 History 204 weeks
Current reading

The wave count points to an advance

The selected pattern describes a move upward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

95/100 Setup score 92/100 Data quality Watching Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countWave + Hurst trough confluence

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings support this direction

7 of 7 available readings support the upward wave interpretation; 0 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

Main uncertaintyLow count stability

The leading count changed 6 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in AUD · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-09-220.500.54540.5773
2023-09-290.450.54120.5748
2023-10-060.350.53380.5703
2023-10-130.350.52460.5661
2023-10-200.350.51540.562
2023-10-270.350.50790.5581
2023-11-030.350.49880.5543
2023-11-100.350.49120.5507
2023-11-170.350.48290.5471
2023-11-240.350.47540.5438
2023-12-010.350.46960.5405
2023-12-080.350.46330.5373
2023-12-150.350.45670.5342
2023-12-220.350.45170.5312
2023-12-290.350.44670.5284
2024-01-050.350.44080.5256
2024-01-120.350.43580.5229
2024-01-190.350.43080.5203
2024-01-260.350.42670.5177
2024-02-020.350.42170.5153
2024-02-090.350.41580.5129
2024-02-160.350.40920.5105
2024-02-230.350.40330.5083
2024-03-010.350.39580.5061
2024-03-080.350.38830.5039
2024-03-150.350.38250.5019
2024-03-220.350.37580.4998
2024-03-290.350.36830.4979
2024-04-050.350.36330.4959
2024-04-120.350.35830.4941
2024-04-190.350.35330.4922
2024-04-260.350.350.4905
2024-05-030.350.350.4887
2024-05-100.350.350.487
2024-05-170.350.350.4854
2024-05-240.350.350.4838
2024-05-310.350.350.4822
2024-06-070.350.350.4807
2024-06-140.350.350.4792
2024-06-210.350.350.4777
2024-06-280.350.350.4763
2024-07-050.350.350.4749
2024-07-120.350.350.4735
2024-07-190.350.350.4721
2024-07-260.350.350.4708
2024-08-020.350.350.4695
2024-08-090.350.350.4683
2024-08-160.350.350.4671
2024-08-230.350.350.4659
2024-08-300.350.350.4647
2024-09-060.350.350.4635
2024-09-130.350.350.4624
2024-09-200.350.350.4613
2024-09-270.350.350.4602
2024-10-040.350.350.4591
2024-10-110.350.350.4581
2024-10-180.350.350.457
2024-10-250.350.350.456
2024-11-010.350.350.455
2024-11-080.350.350.4541
2024-11-150.350.350.4531
2024-11-220.350.350.4522
2024-11-290.350.350.4512
2024-12-060.350.350.4503
2024-12-130.350.350.4494
2024-12-200.350.350.4486
2024-12-270.350.350.4477
2025-01-030.350.350.4469
2025-01-100.350.350.446
2025-01-170.350.350.4452
2025-01-240.350.350.4444
2025-01-310.350.350.4436
2025-02-070.350.350.4429
2025-02-140.350.350.4421
2025-02-210.350.350.4414
2025-02-280.350.350.4406
2025-03-070.350.350.4399
2025-03-140.350.350.4392
2025-03-210.350.350.4385
2025-03-280.350.350.4378
2025-04-040.350.350.4371
2025-04-110.350.350.4364
2025-04-180.350.350.4358
2025-04-250.350.350.4351
2025-05-020.350.350.4345
2025-05-090.350.350.4339
2025-05-160.350.350.4332
2025-05-230.350.350.4326
2025-05-300.350.350.432
2025-06-060.350.350.4314
2025-06-130.350.350.4308
2025-06-200.350.350.4303
2025-06-270.350.350.4297
2025-07-040.350.350.4291
2025-07-110.350.350.4286
2025-07-180.350.350.428
2025-07-250.350.350.4275
2025-08-010.350.350.427
2025-08-080.350.350.4264
2025-08-150.350.350.4259
2025-08-220.350.350.4254
2025-08-290.350.350.4249
2025-09-050.350.350.4244
2025-09-120.350.350.4239
2025-09-190.350.350.4234
2025-09-260.350.350.423
2025-10-030.350.350.4225
2025-10-100.350.350.422
2025-10-170.350.350.4201
2025-10-240.350.350.4187
2025-10-310.350.350.4177
2025-11-070.350.350.4166
2025-11-140.350.350.415
2025-11-210.350.350.4135
2025-11-280.3350.34950.4123
2025-12-050.360.34980.41
2025-12-120.3150.34870.4082
2025-12-190.2750.34620.4056
2025-12-260.2850.3440.4033
2026-01-020.3850.34520.4017
2026-01-090.330.34450.3993
2026-01-160.4150.34670.3977
2026-01-230.630.3560.3969
2026-01-300.7150.36820.3972
2026-02-060.440.37120.396
2026-02-130.4750.37530.395
2026-02-200.460.3790.3938
2026-02-270.460.38270.3931
2026-03-060.490.38730.3925
2026-03-130.4450.39050.3914
2026-03-200.400.39220.3899
2026-03-270.3750.3930.3886
2026-04-030.4850.39750.3877
2026-04-100.4750.40170.3871
2026-04-170.4650.40550.3862
2026-04-240.4150.40770.3852
2026-05-010.400.40930.3844
2026-05-080.3950.41080.3835
2026-05-150.400.41250.3825
2026-05-220.360.41280.3816
2026-05-290.410.41480.3811
2026-06-050.400.41650.3803
2026-06-120.340.41620.3792
2026-06-190.490.42080.3792
2026-06-260.420.42370.3788
2026-07-030.410.42530.3782
2026-07-100.400.42820.3774
2026-07-170.3650.43120.3762
2026-07-240.3950.43480.3754
2026-07-310.4750.43780.3748
2026-08-070.440.44150.3739
2026-08-140.450.44270.3734
2026-08-210.460.4370.3729
2026-08-280.540.43120.3726
2026-09-040.5350.43430.3729
2026-09-110.480.43450.3727
4-week return 6.7%
13-week return 41.2%
26-week return 7.9%
52-week return 37.1%
From 52-week high -36.0%
26-week volatility 98.2%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 5.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible Wave 4 troughPrimary swing size · Leading47%
Possible Wave 2 troughPrimary swing size5%
Possible Wave 4 troughTactical swing size47%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Possible Wave 4 trough

47% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm above 0.54 Fails below 0.44 Count stability Low · 4/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 0.365; Wave 2 0.44.
PassWave 3 exceeds Wave 1Wave 1 0.475; Wave 3 0.54.
PassWave 4 does not overlap Wave 1Wave 1 boundary 0.475; Wave 4 0.48.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 32% of Wave 1.
GuidelineWave 3 extension is plausibleWave 3 is 0.91× Wave 1.
GuidelineWave 4 retracement is proportionateRetraced 60% of Wave 3.
GuidelineWaves 2 and 4 show temporal alternationWave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 2w.
Strategic degreePossible Wave 2 trough

Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible Wave 4 trough

Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible Wave 4 trough

Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing -11.1%

2 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.44

Pivot from 2026-08-07

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.54

Pivot from 2026-08-28

30-week trend 0.4345

Price is 10.5% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.3727

Price is 28.8% from Fair Value

52-week range position 49%

0.22 low · 0.75 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

7 of 7 available readings support the upward wave interpretation; 0 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

100% directional agreement

The other readings support this direction. 7 readings support the selected direction; 0 lean against it.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

10.5% above trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Rising
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are improving together.

Rising Stack
Relative strength

Outperforming its benchmark

+17.2
Market activity

Participation is supportive

+61.4
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+0.7
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+1.1
Balance of readings Constructive

7 constructive, 0 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive. This supports the upward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Outperforming its benchmark. This supports the upward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is positive. This supports the upward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive. This supports the upward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is rising. That supports the recent upswing, but it does not establish how long it will last.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 43/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseRising

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementRising Stack

100/100 constructive · 0/100 risk

Estimated next low14 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high13 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 11w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough7w
Possible next low0–8w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 21w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score22/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough7w
Possible next low11–17w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 30w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score33/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough4w
Possible next low11–41w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 60w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score43/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough7w
Possible next low45–61w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 36.0% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 36.0% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Count instability

    The primary interpretation has low recent stability.

  • Trend extension

    Price is 10.5% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.

Downside risk check

Contained

17/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension7/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover0/15
Multi-cycle risk0/15
Count instability10/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.22
52-week high0.75
Annualised volatility98.2%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range10.3%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-36.0%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume115%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

42% constructive

10 of 24 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

54% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^AXJOMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks70245%-0.8%-1.2%-15.2% to 14.0%
13 weeks26446%-0.9%-1.1%-25.3% to 31.6%
26 weeks15349%-0.5%-1.3%-33.3% to 38.5%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was -9.7% across 18 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

19 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
-9.7%
13w
-15.8%
26w
-2.6%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 18 39% -9.7% -35.7% to 21.6%
13 weeks 15 20% -15.8% -44.1% to 22.5%
26 weeks 8 25% -2.6% -37.3% to 17.4%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality92/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
78/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-11 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 5.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2026-03-06 Confirmed High 0.49 11.4% 4 weeks
2026-03-27 Confirmed Low 0.375 -23.5% 3 weeks
2026-04-03 Confirmed High 0.485 29.3% 1 weeks
2026-05-22 Confirmed Low 0.36 -25.8% 7 weeks
2026-05-29 Confirmed High 0.41 13.9% 1 weeks
2026-06-12 Confirmed Low 0.34 -17.1% 2 weeks
2026-06-19 Confirmed High 0.49 44.1% 1 weeks
2026-07-17 Confirmed Low 0.365 -25.5% 4 weeks
2026-07-31 Confirmed High 0.475 30.1% 2 weeks
2026-08-07 Confirmed Low 0.44 -7.4% 1 weeks
2026-08-28 Confirmed High 0.54 22.7% 3 weeks
2026-09-11 Forming Low 0.48 -11.1% 2 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context