LSE · Consumer Defensive · Weekly analysis

DIS Elliott Wave report

Distil Plc

Latest close GBP 0.0006 Week ending 11 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

The wave count points to a decline

The selected pattern describes a move downward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

70/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Watching Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countPossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings support this direction

5 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 2 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

Main uncertaintyModerate count stability

The leading count changed 2 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in GBP · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-09-220.0050.0052080.0137
2023-09-290.004750.0051670.0136
2023-10-060.00450.0051170.0136
2023-10-130.00450.0051080.0135
2023-10-200.004250.0050920.0135
2023-10-270.0040.0050670.0134
2023-11-030.0040.0050420.0134
2023-11-100.004250.0050170.0133
2023-11-170.00450.0049920.0132
2023-11-240.0040.0049330.0131
2023-12-010.0040.0048750.0131
2023-12-080.0040.0048250.013
2023-12-150.006750.0048670.0129
2023-12-220.00650.00490.0128
2023-12-290.0060.0049420.0127
2024-01-050.0060.0049920.0126
2024-01-120.007250.0050920.0125
2024-01-190.00650.0051670.0124
2024-01-260.006250.005250.0123
2024-02-020.0060.0052580.0122
2024-02-090.0060.0052750.0121
2024-02-160.0060.0052920.0121
2024-02-230.005250.0052750.012
2024-03-010.0050.005250.0119
2024-03-080.0050.0052250.0118
2024-03-150.0050.00520.0117
2024-03-220.0050.0051750.0116
2024-03-290.005750.00520.0115
2024-04-050.0060.0052330.0113
2024-04-120.0060.0052670.0111
2024-04-190.0060.00530.011
2024-04-260.00550.0053250.0109
2024-05-030.0060.0053750.0107
2024-05-100.0060.0054250.0106
2024-05-170.00550.0054670.0105
2024-05-240.00450.0054830.0104
2024-05-310.004750.0055080.0103
2024-06-070.004750.0055250.0101
2024-06-140.004750.0055330.01
2024-06-210.004750.0055580.009891
2024-06-280.004750.0055830.009774
2024-07-050.00450.00560.009655
2024-07-120.00450.0055250.00953
2024-07-190.00450.0054580.009428
2024-07-260.004250.00540.009324
2024-08-020.004050.0053350.009215
2024-08-090.004250.0052350.009108
2024-08-160.003750.0051430.008997
2024-08-230.003250.0050430.008893
2024-08-300.002250.0049180.008776
2024-09-060.002250.0047930.008659
2024-09-130.002250.0046680.008545
2024-09-200.0020.004560.008427
2024-09-270.00130.0044370.0083
2024-10-040.00130.0043130.008174
2024-10-110.00130.004190.008051
2024-10-180.001450.0040720.007948
2024-10-250.001750.0039380.007863
2024-11-010.00190.0038020.007787
2024-11-080.001550.0036530.007701
2024-11-150.00140.00350.007611
2024-11-220.00140.0033630.00752
2024-11-290.001350.0032080.007439
2024-12-060.001550.003060.007366
2024-12-130.001350.0029220.007283
2024-12-200.001250.0028130.007204
2024-12-270.001250.0026970.007126
2025-01-030.001250.002580.007012
2025-01-100.001050.0024570.0069
2025-01-170.000830.0023260.006797
2025-01-240.00090.0021980.006703
2025-01-310.00090.0020780.006613
2025-02-070.000850.0019560.006522
2025-02-140.000830.0018340.006431
2025-02-210.000830.001720.006344
2025-02-280.000830.0016120.006259
2025-03-070.000830.0014980.006188
2025-03-140.00070.0013970.006115
2025-03-210.000580.0013080.006042
2025-03-280.000450.0012480.005965
2025-04-040.000680.0011950.005879
2025-04-110.00070.0011440.005784
2025-04-180.000780.0011030.005671
2025-04-250.000680.0010820.005569
2025-05-020.00090.0010690.005479
2025-05-090.000850.0010540.005391
2025-05-160.000880.0010350.005309
2025-05-230.001350.0010220.005225
2025-05-300.00130.0010020.005143
2025-06-060.00140.0009970.005069
2025-06-130.00210.001020.005002
2025-06-200.002350.0010520.004937
2025-06-270.00250.001090.004873
2025-07-040.002250.0011130.004801
2025-07-110.002050.0011370.004747
2025-07-180.00170.0011520.004687
2025-07-250.001630.0011640.004624
2025-08-010.001750.0011810.004555
2025-08-080.00180.0012060.004477
2025-08-150.00180.0012380.004402
2025-08-220.00220.0012820.004329
2025-08-290.002750.0013430.00426
2025-09-050.00260.0014020.004191
2025-09-120.001750.0014320.004125
2025-09-190.001350.001450.004066
2025-09-260.00140.0014690.004008
2025-10-030.001350.0014860.003949
2025-10-100.001130.00150.003908
2025-10-170.001230.0015220.003868
2025-10-240.001280.001550.003828
2025-10-310.001380.0015730.003789
2025-11-070.00130.0015930.003757
2025-11-140.001280.001610.003722
2025-11-210.001180.0016260.003677
2025-11-280.001180.0016360.003636
2025-12-050.00110.0016440.003594
2025-12-120.00120.0016550.00355
2025-12-190.00110.0016460.003504
2025-12-260.00110.001640.00346
2026-01-020.00130.0016360.003411
2026-01-090.001330.0016110.003384
2026-01-160.001330.0015770.003362
2026-01-230.001080.0015290.003339
2026-01-300.00120.0014940.003316
2026-02-060.00120.0014660.003292
2026-02-130.00120.0014490.00327
2026-02-200.00110.0014320.003245
2026-02-270.001050.0014080.003214
2026-03-060.00110.0013850.003182
2026-03-130.0010.0013580.003158
2026-03-200.00090.0013150.003134
2026-03-270.000450.0012380.003106
2026-04-030.000350.0011630.003078
2026-04-100.000350.0011170.003048
2026-04-170.00040.0010850.003017
2026-04-240.000380.0010510.002982
2026-05-010.00040.0010190.002948
2026-05-080.00040.0009950.002915
2026-05-150.000450.0009690.002883
2026-05-220.000430.0009410.002851
2026-05-290.000410.0009080.002823
2026-06-050.000550.0008830.002797
2026-06-120.00060.0008610.002774
2026-06-190.000550.000840.00275
2026-06-260.00060.000820.00273
2026-07-030.00060.0008040.002697
2026-07-100.000650.0007850.002666
2026-07-170.000650.000770.002635
2026-07-240.00060.0007540.002602
2026-07-310.00060.000730.002569
2026-08-070.00060.0007060.002536
2026-08-140.00060.0006820.002503
2026-08-210.0005750.0006650.00247
2026-08-280.00050.0006420.002441
2026-09-040.00060.0006220.002413
2026-09-110.00060.0006020.002384
4-week return 0.0%
13-week return 0.0%
26-week return -40.0%
52-week return -65.7%
From 52-week high -62.5%
26-week volatility 106.3%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 16.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 2 crestPrimary swing size · Leading38%
Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completingPrimary swing size25%
Possible bearish Wave 2 crestTactical swing size38%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Possible bearish Wave 2 crest

38% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 0.0005 Fails above 0.00065 Count stability Moderate · 68/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 0.00065; Wave 2 0.0006.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 67% of Wave 1.
Strategic degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 20.0%

2 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.0005

Pivot from 2026-08-28

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.00065

Pivot from 2026-07-17

30-week trend 0.000602

Price is -0.3% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.002384

Price is -74.8% from Fair Value

52-week range position 23%

0.0003 low · 0.0016 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

5 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 2 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

71% directional agreement

The other readings support this direction. 5 readings support the selected direction; 2 lean against it.

Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

0.3% below trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is not rising.

Cresting
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are improving together.

Rising Stack
Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-34.9
Market activity

Participation is weak

-3.4
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+0.5
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-50.0
Balance of readings Defensive

2 constructive, 5 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is weak. This supports the downward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark. This supports the downward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is negative. This supports the downward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is near a high and starting to turn. Watch whether price and momentum also weaken.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 39/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseCresting

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementRising Stack

100/100 constructive · 0/100 risk

Estimated next low23 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high22 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 8w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough2w
Possible next low4–8w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 25w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough2w
Possible next low18–28w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 50w
Current phaseTroughing
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough16w
Possible next low15–53w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 84w
Current phaseTroughing
Repeat score39/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough13w
Possible next low49–93w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 97.6% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 62.5% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Cycle rollover

    Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.

  • Count instability

    The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability.

Downside risk check

Contained

18/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover15/15
Multi-cycle risk0/15
Count instability3/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.0003
52-week high0.0016
Annualised volatility106.3%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range30.2%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-97.6%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume48%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Most analysed peers have an upward wave count. That contrasts with this report’s downward interpretation.

82% constructive

18 of 22 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

14% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Only options information is available

Options: Mixed · 37/100 conviction · ±2.0% expected move

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^FTSEMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks15950%0.2%-0.7%-9.5% to 9.2%
13 weeks9656%2.1%-1.6%-15.2% to 14.8%
26 weeks7553%1.2%-0.3%-20.9% to 31.6%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +0.0% across 54 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

55 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
0.0%
13w
4.6%
26w
0.0%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 54 43% 0.0% -47.2% to 138.6%
13 weeks 46 54% 4.6% -64.8% to 455.6%
26 weeks 46 48% 0.0% -60.4% to 211.1%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-11 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 16.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2025-03-28 Confirmed Low 0.00045 -76.3% 21 weeks
2025-06-27 Confirmed High 0.0025 455.6% 13 weeks
2025-07-25 Confirmed Low 0.00163 -34.8% 4 weeks
2025-08-29 Confirmed High 0.00275 68.7% 5 weeks
2025-10-10 Confirmed Low 0.00113 -58.9% 6 weeks
2025-10-31 Confirmed High 0.00138 22.1% 3 weeks
2025-12-26 Confirmed Low 0.0011 -20.3% 8 weeks
2026-01-16 Confirmed High 0.00133 20.9% 3 weeks
2026-04-10 Confirmed Low 0.00035 -73.7% 12 weeks
2026-07-17 Confirmed High 0.00065 85.7% 14 weeks
2026-08-28 Confirmed Low 0.0005 -23.1% 6 weeks
2026-09-11 Forming High 0.0006 20.0% 2 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context