HEL · Communication Services · Weekly analysis

TELIA1 Elliott Wave report

Telia Company AB (publ)

Latest close EUR 4.07 Week ending 18 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

The wave count points to an advance

The selected pattern describes a move upward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

76/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Watching Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countPossible Wave 4 trough

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings support this direction

4 of 7 available readings support the upward wave interpretation; 3 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

Main uncertaintyHigh count stability

The most recent swing is still forming and can extend. A settled label needs a confirmed reversal.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in EUR · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-09-290.24010.21080.1335
2023-10-060.24210.21310.1348
2023-10-130.24910.21560.1362
2023-10-200.26870.21890.1376
2023-10-270.32420.2240.1394
2023-11-030.33510.22780.1412
2023-11-100.33140.23160.143
2023-11-170.33730.23550.1448
2023-11-240.34630.23920.1467
2023-12-010.35880.24360.1487
2023-12-080.37170.24860.1507
2023-12-150.36890.25360.1527
2023-12-220.37230.25890.1547
2023-12-290.36990.26450.1567
2024-01-050.3850.27070.1588
2024-01-120.390.27720.1609
2024-01-190.38020.28380.163
2024-01-260.38270.29030.165
2024-02-020.4650.29940.1676
2024-02-090.43750.30750.17
2024-02-160.44220.31580.1725
2024-02-230.44680.32240.175
2024-03-010.44750.32970.1775
2024-03-080.44280.3370.1799
2024-03-150.46410.34520.1825
2024-03-220.47590.35370.1852
2024-03-290.48080.36210.1878
2024-04-050.47940.37050.1905
2024-04-120.58380.38220.1937
2024-04-190.59230.39370.197
2024-04-260.56970.40470.2001
2024-05-030.5640.41540.2032
2024-05-100.57490.42630.2063
2024-05-170.60380.43750.2097
2024-05-240.59360.44650.2129
2024-05-310.61970.45590.2164
2024-06-070.62120.46560.2198
2024-06-140.61730.47490.2232
2024-06-210.63270.48450.2267
2024-06-280.65010.49420.2304
2024-07-050.65760.50370.234
2024-07-120.6410.51280.2375
2024-07-190.68340.52320.2414
2024-07-260.70890.53450.2453
2024-08-020.86340.55040.2503
2024-08-090.85220.56580.2552
2024-08-160.85950.58180.2602
2024-08-230.86910.5980.2652
2024-08-300.88970.61220.2704
2024-09-060.92430.62840.2758
2024-09-130.92470.64450.2812
2024-09-200.94120.6610.2866
2024-09-270.91860.67670.292
2024-10-040.90620.69210.2973
2024-10-110.90050.70670.3025
2024-10-180.89070.72050.3077
2024-10-250.88840.73410.3127
2024-11-011.060.75350.3188
2024-11-081.020.76810.3246
2024-11-151.020.78240.3304
2024-11-221.070.79890.3366
2024-11-291.070.81580.3427
2024-12-061.070.83230.3489
2024-12-131.020.84630.3547
2024-12-201.010.86040.3605
2024-12-271.030.87420.3664
2025-01-031.050.88850.3725
2025-01-101.020.90180.3782
2025-01-171.060.91610.3843
2025-01-241.060.92970.3904
2025-01-311.100.94430.3967
2025-02-071.380.96880.4048
2025-02-141.400.99260.413
2025-02-211.421.020.4214
2025-02-281.461.040.4301
2025-03-071.481.060.4389
2025-03-141.521.080.4479
2025-03-211.521.100.4569
2025-03-281.551.120.4661
2025-04-041.521.140.4748
2025-04-111.721.170.4847
2025-04-181.791.200.4951
2025-04-251.791.230.5054
2025-05-021.851.260.5162
2025-05-091.831.290.5268
2025-05-161.851.320.5376
2025-05-231.921.360.5488
2025-05-301.891.380.5599
2025-06-061.861.410.5708
2025-06-131.801.440.5812
2025-06-201.761.460.5915
2025-06-271.701.480.6014
2025-07-041.711.500.6113
2025-07-111.661.520.6209
2025-07-181.731.550.6309
2025-07-251.771.570.6413
2025-08-012.061.610.6535
2025-08-082.051.640.6656
2025-08-152.091.670.678
2025-08-222.141.710.6907
2025-08-292.111.740.7032
2025-09-052.161.770.7161
2025-09-122.181.800.7292
2025-09-192.161.820.7421
2025-09-262.141.840.755
2025-10-032.141.870.7679
2025-10-102.151.890.7808
2025-10-172.191.910.7941
2025-10-242.281.930.8075
2025-10-312.631.970.8231
2025-11-072.682.000.839
2025-11-142.622.030.8545
2025-11-212.622.060.8701
2025-11-282.702.090.8861
2025-12-052.722.120.9023
2025-12-122.672.140.9183
2025-12-192.762.170.9349
2025-12-262.792.200.9517
2026-01-022.852.230.9688
2026-01-092.832.270.9857
2026-01-162.832.301.00
2026-01-232.952.351.02
2026-01-302.992.391.04
2026-02-063.572.451.06
2026-02-133.682.521.08
2026-02-203.722.581.11
2026-02-273.842.641.13
2026-03-063.852.701.15
2026-03-133.852.761.18
2026-03-203.812.821.20
2026-03-273.842.871.22
2026-04-033.892.931.25
2026-04-104.473.011.27
2026-04-174.283.081.30
2026-04-244.443.151.33
2026-05-014.413.231.35
2026-05-084.483.311.38
2026-05-154.503.381.41
2026-05-224.653.461.44
2026-05-294.593.531.46
2026-06-054.443.591.49
2026-06-124.733.661.52
2026-06-194.423.721.55
2026-06-264.343.771.57
2026-07-034.103.821.60
2026-07-104.083.871.62
2026-07-174.143.911.65
2026-07-244.033.951.67
2026-07-314.023.991.70
2026-08-073.974.031.72
2026-08-143.984.071.75
2026-08-213.934.101.77
2026-08-283.944.131.79
2026-09-043.994.151.82
2026-09-114.054.161.84
2026-09-184.074.171.87
4-week return 3.6%
13-week return -7.8%
26-week return 7.0%
52-week return 89.0%
From 52-week high -13.9%
26-week volatility 28.7%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 5.2% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible Wave 4 troughPrimary swing size · Leading47%
Possible Wave 2 troughPrimary swing size5%
Possible Wave 4 troughStrategic swing size47%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Possible Wave 4 trough

47% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm above 4.73 Fails below 1.66 Count stability High · 100/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 1.01; Wave 2 1.66.
PassWave 3 exceeds Wave 1Wave 1 1.92; Wave 3 4.73.
PassWave 4 does not overlap Wave 1Wave 1 boundary 1.92; Wave 4 4.07.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 29% of Wave 1.
GuidelineWave 3 extension is plausibleWave 3 is 3.38× Wave 1.
GuidelineWave 4 retracement is proportionateRetraced 21% of Wave 3.
GuidelineWaves 2 and 4 show temporal alternationWave 2 lasted 7w; Wave 4 lasted 14w.
Strategic degreePossible Wave 4 trough

Strategic degree uses a 8.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible Wave 4 trough

Primary degree uses a 5.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreeNo valid count

Tactical degree uses a 3.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing -13.9%

14 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 1.66

Pivot from 2025-07-11

Nearest confirmed resistance 4.73

Pivot from 2026-06-12

30-week trend 4.17

Price is -2.3% from trend

Fair Value reference 1.87

Price is 118.1% from Fair Value

52-week range position 75%

2.10 low · 4.73 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

4 of 7 available readings support the upward wave interpretation; 3 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

57% directional agreement

The other readings support this direction. 4 readings support the selected direction; 3 lean against it.

Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

2.3% below trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Troughing
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are weakening together.

Falling Stack
Relative strength

Outperforming its benchmark

+4.6
Market activity

Participation is supportive

+5.6
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-0.7
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+9.4
Balance of readings Constructive

4 constructive, 3 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive. This supports the upward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Outperforming its benchmark. This supports the upward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is positive. This supports the upward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is weak. This challenges the upward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is near a low and starting to turn. Look for price to confirm an upswing.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 6/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseTroughing

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementFalling Stack

25/100 constructive · 75/100 risk

Estimated next low13 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high3 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 12w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score6/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough6w
Possible next low3–9w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 25w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough1w
Possible next low19–29w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 30w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough33w
Possible next low17–37w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 60w
Current phaseCresting
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough47w
Possible next low2–24w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 13.9% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 13.9% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 75/100.

Downside risk check

Contained

11/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover0/15
Multi-cycle risk11/15
Count instability0/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low2.10
52-week high4.73
Annualised volatility28.7%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range2.4%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-13.9%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume134%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Most analysed peers have an upward wave count. That agrees with this report’s upward interpretation.

60% constructive

3 of 5 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

20% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^OMXH25Middle 80% of returns
4 weeks4342%-1.1%-1.5%-8.7% to 9.4%
13 weeks2152%0.2%-3.7%-11.9% to 11.4%
26 weeks1741%-4.6%-13.5%-32.0% to 12.8%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +0.3% across 29 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

30 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
0.4%
13w
26.6%
26w
36.8%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 29 55% 0.4% -17.3% to 53.0%
13 weeks 24 96% 26.6% -8.6% to 39.5%
26 weeks 24 100% 36.8% 7.9% to 102.5%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-18 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 5.2% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2023-07-28 Confirmed High 0.2504 36.2% 5 weeks
2023-08-18 Confirmed Low 0.219 -12.6% 3 weeks
2024-02-02 Confirmed High 0.465 112.3% 24 weeks
2024-02-09 Confirmed Low 0.4375 -5.9% 1 weeks
2024-09-20 Confirmed High 0.9412 115.1% 32 weeks
2024-10-25 Confirmed Low 0.8884 -5.6% 5 weeks
2024-11-29 Confirmed High 1.07 20.5% 5 weeks
2024-12-20 Confirmed Low 1.01 -5.3% 3 weeks
2025-05-23 Confirmed High 1.92 89.6% 22 weeks
2025-07-11 Confirmed Low 1.66 -13.7% 7 weeks
2026-06-12 Confirmed High 4.73 185.3% 48 weeks
2026-09-18 Forming Low 4.07 -13.9% 14 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context