MEX · Technology · Weekly analysis

ASM1N Elliott Wave report

ASM International NV

Latest close MXN 17,388.64 Week ending 11 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

The wave count points to an advance

The selected pattern describes a move upward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

88/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Setup in timing window Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countPossible Wave 4 trough

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings support this direction

4 of 7 available readings support the upward wave interpretation; 3 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

Main uncertaintyHigh count stability

The most recent swing is still forming and can extend. A settled label needs a confirmed reversal.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in MXN · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-09-227,014.647,279.966,653.19
2023-09-297,217.967,320.416,657.20
2023-10-067,317.727,364.196,661.85
2023-10-137,317.727,392.786,666.44
2023-10-207,317.727,421.366,670.96
2023-10-277,035.407,431.546,673.47
2023-11-037,035.407,441.716,675.95
2023-11-107,035.407,434.756,678.40
2023-11-177,035.407,439.866,680.81
2023-11-248,603.317,494.166,693.71
2023-12-018,668.237,550.626,706.87
2023-12-088,364.047,596.936,717.85
2023-12-158,364.047,643.176,728.68
2023-12-229,081.267,714.116,744.06
2023-12-299,081.267,762.546,759.23
2024-01-059,081.267,810.966,774.21
2024-01-129,081.267,858.916,789.00
2024-01-199,243.217,912.256,813.78
2024-01-269,243.217,984.276,840.20
2024-02-029,243.218,056.306,864.84
2024-02-099,243.218,106.436,886.86
2024-02-169,243.218,158.136,908.58
2024-02-239,243.218,201.016,930.30
2024-03-019,243.218,241.756,956.44
2024-03-089,243.218,282.506,981.67
2024-03-159,243.218,331.077,006.77
2024-03-229,243.218,367.097,030.47
2024-03-299,243.218,403.127,051.71
2024-04-059,243.218,439.147,069.68
2024-04-1210,332.368,530.097,095.58
2024-04-1910,332.368,640.697,123.38
2024-04-269,373.848,712.557,144.07
2024-05-0310,957.838,833.897,174.94
2024-05-1010,957.838,955.227,209.62
2024-05-1710,960.589,076.657,244.64
2024-05-2410,960.589,207.497,275.13
2024-05-3110,960.589,338.337,304.80
2024-06-0710,960.589,469.177,334.48
2024-06-1410,960.589,600.017,362.00
2024-06-2110,960.589,678.597,391.64
2024-06-2810,960.589,755.007,420.79
2024-07-0510,960.589,841.557,449.50
2024-07-1210,960.589,928.107,476.25
2024-07-1910,960.589,990.747,505.18
2024-07-2610,960.5810,053.397,534.12
2024-08-0210,960.5810,116.037,558.08
2024-08-0910,960.5810,178.687,582.04
2024-08-1610,960.5810,235.927,604.46
2024-08-2310,960.5810,293.177,626.12
2024-08-3010,960.5810,350.417,647.77
2024-09-0610,960.5810,407.667,664.87
2024-09-1310,960.5810,464.907,679.11
2024-09-2010,960.5810,522.157,696.13
2024-09-2710,960.5810,579.407,716.09
2024-10-0410,960.5810,636.647,737.48
2024-10-1110,960.5810,693.897,756.79
2024-10-1810,960.5810,751.137,776.11
2024-10-2510,960.5810,808.387,787.96
2024-11-0110,960.5810,865.637,794.34
2024-11-0810,960.5810,886.577,802.84
2024-11-1510,960.5810,907.517,808.23
2024-11-2210,960.5810,960.407,813.62
2024-11-2910,960.5810,960.497,821.50
2024-12-0610,960.5810,960.587,833.55
2024-12-1310,960.5810,960.587,849.84
2024-12-2010,960.5810,960.587,863.52
2024-12-2710,960.5810,960.587,877.21
2025-01-0310,960.5810,960.587,890.90
2025-01-1010,960.5810,960.587,904.82
2025-01-1710,960.5810,960.587,918.74
2025-01-2412,993.8911,028.367,958.36
2025-01-3111,389.1811,042.647,984.68
2025-02-0711,389.1811,056.938,012.53
2025-02-1411,389.1811,071.228,043.04
2025-02-2111,389.1811,085.508,075.50
2025-02-2811,389.1811,099.798,107.91
2025-03-0711,389.1811,114.088,139.47
2025-03-1411,389.1811,128.368,166.55
2025-03-2111,389.1811,142.658,193.63
2025-03-2810,005.8811,110.838,210.95
2025-04-0410,005.8811,079.008,232.65
2025-04-1110,005.8811,047.188,255.92
2025-04-1810,005.8811,015.368,279.20
2025-04-2510,005.8810,983.538,301.99
2025-05-0210,005.8810,951.718,326.72
2025-05-0910,005.8810,919.898,354.07
2025-05-1610,008.8810,888.168,380.09
2025-05-2310,008.8810,856.448,405.69
2025-05-3010,008.8810,824.728,431.29
2025-06-0610,869.2110,821.678,462.40
2025-06-1311,643.9210,844.458,504.89
2025-06-2011,643.9210,867.238,546.98
2025-06-2711,643.9210,890.018,590.36
2025-07-0411,287.2910,900.908,633.84
2025-07-1111,265.3910,911.068,675.73
2025-07-1811,265.3910,921.228,710.54
2025-07-2511,265.3910,931.388,744.03
2025-08-0111,265.3910,941.548,776.18
2025-08-0811,265.3910,951.708,808.31
2025-08-1511,265.3910,961.868,841.63
2025-08-2211,265.3910,904.248,876.42
2025-08-2911,265.3910,900.118,914.57
2025-09-058,754.8410,812.308,935.38
2025-09-129,272.5310,741.758,960.08
2025-09-199,272.5310,671.198,986.49
2025-09-269,272.5310,600.649,014.93
2025-10-0311,026.4810,588.559,054.61
2025-10-1011,026.4810,576.469,095.77
2025-10-1711,748.9110,588.459,139.85
2025-10-2411,748.9110,646.559,183.94
2025-10-3112,170.5110,718.709,230.72
2025-11-0712,170.5110,790.869,277.51
2025-11-1412,170.5110,863.019,324.30
2025-11-2110,481.6010,878.879,360.26
2025-11-2810,481.6010,894.739,391.60
2025-12-0510,481.6010,910.589,422.95
2025-12-1210,481.6010,926.349,454.29
2025-12-1910,481.6010,942.109,488.61
2025-12-2610,481.6010,957.869,522.93
2026-01-0210,481.6010,944.949,557.25
2026-01-0910,481.6010,906.199,586.41
2026-01-1610,481.6010,867.459,614.42
2026-01-2314,576.6610,965.219,666.78
2026-01-3014,576.6611,074.859,719.20
2026-02-0614,576.6611,185.239,771.62
2026-02-1314,576.6611,295.609,824.04
2026-02-2014,227.5511,394.349,874.23
2026-02-2714,348.0811,497.109,927.71
2026-03-0614,348.0811,599.859,981.20
2026-03-1314,348.0811,702.6110,031.76
2026-03-2014,348.0811,805.3710,082.33
2026-03-2713,957.6011,895.1110,128.66
2026-04-0313,957.6012,068.5310,174.99
2026-04-1013,957.6012,224.7010,218.02
2026-04-1713,957.6012,380.8710,263.38
2026-04-2413,957.6012,537.0410,308.14
2026-05-0113,957.6012,634.7410,352.90
2026-05-0813,957.6012,732.4510,397.67
2026-05-1513,960.8512,806.1810,442.44
2026-05-2213,960.8512,879.9110,487.36
2026-05-2918,215.7113,081.4210,555.22
2026-06-0517,468.3613,258.0110,618.30
2026-06-1217,468.3613,434.6110,681.28
2026-06-1917,468.3613,667.5010,744.27
2026-06-2617,468.3613,900.3910,810.84
2026-07-0319,963.7514,216.4610,893.42
2026-07-1017,863.7114,462.5310,958.32
2026-07-1717,388.6414,692.7711,020.47
2026-07-2417,388.6414,923.0011,080.93
2026-07-3117,388.6415,153.2411,140.98
2026-08-0717,388.6415,383.4711,201.03
2026-08-1417,388.6415,613.7111,262.59
2026-08-2117,388.6415,707.4411,321.73
2026-08-2817,388.6415,801.1711,380.87
2026-09-0417,388.6415,894.9011,440.01
2026-09-1117,388.6415,988.6411,502.74
4-week return 0.0%
13-week return -0.5%
26-week return 21.2%
52-week return 87.5%
From 52-week high -12.9%
26-week volatility 50.0%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 5.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible Wave 4 troughPrimary swing size · Leading47%
Possible Wave 2 troughPrimary swing size5%
Possible Wave 4 troughStrategic swing size47%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Possible Wave 4 trough

47% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm above 19,963.75 Fails below 10,481.60 Count stability High · 100/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 8,754.84; Wave 2 10,481.60.
PassWave 3 exceeds Wave 1Wave 1 12,170.51; Wave 3 19,963.75.
PassWave 4 does not overlap Wave 1Wave 1 boundary 12,170.51; Wave 4 17,388.64.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 49% of Wave 1.
GuidelineWave 3 extension is plausibleWave 3 is 2.78× Wave 1.
GuidelineWave 4 retracement is proportionateRetraced 27% of Wave 3.
GuidelineWaves 2 and 4 show temporal alternationWave 2 lasted 9w; Wave 4 lasted 10w.
Strategic degreePossible Wave 4 trough

Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible Wave 4 trough

Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreeNo valid count

Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing -12.9%

10 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 10,481.60

Pivot from 2026-01-16

Nearest confirmed resistance 19,963.75

Pivot from 2026-07-03

30-week trend 15,988.64

Price is 8.8% from trend

Fair Value reference 11,502.74

Price is 51.2% from Fair Value

52-week range position 76%

9,272.53 low · 19,963.75 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

4 of 7 available readings support the upward wave interpretation; 3 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

57% directional agreement

The other readings support this direction. 4 readings support the selected direction; 3 lean against it.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

8.8% above trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is not rising.

Cresting
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are weakening together.

Falling Stack
Relative strength

Outperforming its benchmark

+27.9
Market activity

Participation is supportive

+18.4
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-0.6
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+19.3
Balance of readings Constructive

4 constructive, 3 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive. This supports the upward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Outperforming its benchmark. This supports the upward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is positive. This supports the upward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is weak. This challenges the upward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is near a high and starting to turn. Watch whether price and momentum also weaken.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 25/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseCresting

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementFalling Stack

25/100 constructive · 75/100 risk

Estimated next low2 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high10 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 12w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough19w
Possible next low0–11w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 18w
Current phaseCresting
Repeat score25/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough16w
Possible next low0–7w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 33w
Current phaseCresting
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough16w
Possible next low11–23w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 100w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score11/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough34w
Possible next low48–84w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 12.9% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 12.9% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Cycle rollover

    Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 75/100.

  • Trend extension

    Price is 8.8% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.

Downside risk check

Watch

31/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension4/20
Range position1/15
Cycle rollover15/15
Multi-cycle risk11/15
Count instability0/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low9,272.53
52-week high19,963.75
Annualised volatility50.0%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range0.0%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-12.9%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume206%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Most analysed peers have an upward wave count. That agrees with this report’s upward interpretation.

71% constructive

17 of 24 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

29% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^MXXMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks15054%0.9%0.6%-9.9% to 12.9%
13 weeks9655%3.6%0.7%-16.5% to 25.2%
26 weeks8369%10.0%12.4%-21.8% to 56.3%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +0.0% across 79 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

80 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
0.0%
13w
3.9%
26w
3.9%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 79 29% 0.0% -12.9% to 30.5%
13 weeks 72 61% 3.9% -23.0% to 43.0%
26 weeks 60 63% 3.9% -23.1% to 31.8%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-11 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 5.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2023-09-08 Confirmed High 8,162.49 15.3% 9 weeks
2023-09-22 Confirmed Low 7,014.64 -14.1% 2 weeks
2024-04-19 Confirmed High 10,332.36 47.3% 30 weeks
2024-04-26 Confirmed Low 9,373.84 -9.3% 1 weeks
2025-01-24 Confirmed High 12,993.89 38.6% 39 weeks
2025-05-09 Confirmed Low 10,005.88 -23.0% 15 weeks
2025-06-27 Confirmed High 11,643.92 16.4% 7 weeks
2025-09-05 Confirmed Low 8,754.84 -24.8% 10 weeks
2025-11-14 Confirmed High 12,170.51 39.0% 10 weeks
2026-01-16 Confirmed Low 10,481.60 -13.9% 9 weeks
2026-07-03 Confirmed High 19,963.75 90.5% 24 weeks
2026-09-11 Forming Low 17,388.64 -12.9% 10 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context