HKG · Consumer Cyclical · Weekly analysis

6918 Elliott Wave report

Kidztech Holdings Limited

Latest close HKD 0.121 Week ending 18 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

The five-wave move is mature

The count describes a move that may be nearing its end. Watch for a confirmed reversal; maturity alone does not mean price has turned.

95/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Mature / manage risk Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countFive-wave decline mature

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsCheck whether the move is losing support

0 readings are positive, 7 are negative and 0 are neutral. They describe current direction, not whether a mature move has finished.

Main uncertaintyModerate count stability

The leading count changed 2 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in HKD · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-09-291.400.68171.17
2023-10-061.400.7061.17
2023-10-131.320.73351.17
2023-10-201.480.76631.18
2023-10-271.470.80071.18
2023-11-031.680.8421.18
2023-11-101.730.8851.19
2023-11-171.890.93331.19
2023-11-241.880.98131.20
2023-12-011.891.031.20
2023-12-082.201.091.21
2023-12-152.021.141.22
2023-12-222.501.211.22
2023-12-290.211.201.22
2024-01-050.1931.191.21
2024-01-120.1871.191.21
2024-01-190.1851.181.20
2024-01-260.191.171.19
2024-02-020.1741.161.18
2024-02-090.1651.151.18
2024-02-160.171.141.17
2024-02-230.1981.121.16
2024-03-010.1891.101.14
2024-03-080.1811.081.13
2024-03-150.1741.051.11
2024-03-220.1651.011.10
2024-03-290.1380.9751.09
2024-04-050.1380.94221.07
2024-04-120.1380.90181.06
2024-04-190.1380.85981.05
2024-04-260.1380.81771.04
2024-05-030.1380.77561.03
2024-05-100.1380.73621.02
2024-05-170.1380.69151.01
2024-05-240.1380.64711.00
2024-05-310.1380.59570.9951
2024-06-070.1380.54260.9852
2024-06-140.1380.48420.9759
2024-06-210.1380.42620.9664
2024-06-280.1690.36880.9577
2024-07-050.1690.30110.9491
2024-07-120.1720.23950.9404
2024-07-190.1520.16120.9315
2024-07-260.1460.15910.9231
2024-08-020.1690.15830.9144
2024-08-090.1690.15770.906
2024-08-160.1670.15710.8978
2024-08-230.2180.1580.8898
2024-08-300.2950.16210.8825
2024-09-060.2220.1640.8749
2024-09-130.200.1650.8673
2024-09-200.1810.16440.8597
2024-09-270.1880.16440.8525
2024-10-040.210.16530.8455
2024-10-110.1810.16560.8384
2024-10-180.1990.16670.8314
2024-10-250.2180.16940.8246
2024-11-010.2110.17180.8178
2024-11-080.1850.17340.8112
2024-11-150.1780.17470.8048
2024-11-220.140.17480.7978
2024-11-290.150.17520.7909
2024-12-060.1560.17580.7841
2024-12-130.1380.17580.7772
2024-12-200.2050.1780.7721
2024-12-270.2090.18040.7672
2025-01-030.1440.18060.7618
2025-01-100.120.180.7563
2025-01-170.1190.17930.7509
2025-01-240.1140.17750.7455
2025-01-310.1220.17590.7403
2025-02-070.1180.17410.7353
2025-02-140.130.17340.7305
2025-02-210.1350.1730.7259
2025-02-280.1380.1720.7212
2025-03-070.1330.17080.7166
2025-03-140.1350.16970.712
2025-03-210.1430.16720.7072
2025-03-280.140.16210.7025
2025-04-040.1320.15910.6982
2025-04-110.1230.15650.6938
2025-04-180.1190.15440.6891
2025-04-250.1180.15210.6841
2025-05-020.1230.14920.679
2025-05-090.1210.14720.6731
2025-05-160.1180.14450.6674
2025-05-230.1240.14140.6608
2025-05-300.1180.13830.6542
2025-06-060.120.13610.6476
2025-06-130.1190.13410.6408
2025-06-200.130.13380.6338
2025-06-270.1210.13280.6241
2025-07-040.1150.13150.6137
2025-07-110.1150.13070.6033
2025-07-180.1160.12770.5924
2025-07-250.1230.12490.5818
2025-08-010.1350.12460.5652
2025-08-080.1570.12580.5425
2025-08-150.1710.12750.517
2025-08-220.2750.13290.4922
2025-08-290.190.13520.4857
2025-09-050.2430.13930.4833
2025-09-120.180.1410.4801
2025-09-190.1920.14290.4764
2025-09-260.190.14460.4721
2025-10-030.200.14690.4681
2025-10-100.2210.14970.4651
2025-10-170.2050.15180.462
2025-10-240.200.15380.4577
2025-10-310.1990.1560.4529
2025-11-070.1870.15820.4482
2025-11-140.1530.15930.4434
2025-11-210.1550.16050.4387
2025-11-280.1710.16210.4344
2025-12-050.1390.16270.4294
2025-12-120.1630.16420.4249
2025-12-190.1620.16550.4206
2025-12-260.1650.16710.4164
2026-01-020.1690.16870.4127
2026-01-090.1540.16990.4089
2026-01-160.1720.17130.4052
2026-01-230.1650.17270.4017
2026-01-300.1650.17440.3982
2026-02-060.1570.17580.3955
2026-02-130.160.17730.3929
2026-02-200.1590.17850.39
2026-02-270.1620.17940.3868
2026-03-060.1590.17940.3835
2026-03-130.1450.17860.3813
2026-03-200.1490.17440.3791
2026-03-270.1550.17320.3773
2026-04-030.160.17040.3755
2026-04-100.1530.16950.3736
2026-04-170.1590.16840.3718
2026-04-240.1560.16730.37
2026-05-010.160.1660.3682
2026-05-080.1530.16370.3664
2026-05-150.1460.16170.3645
2026-05-220.1470.160.3626
2026-05-290.1520.15840.3608
2026-06-050.1550.15730.3589
2026-06-120.1490.15720.3571
2026-06-190.1450.15690.3552
2026-06-260.1450.1560.3533
2026-07-030.1440.15620.3514
2026-07-100.150.15570.3486
2026-07-170.1490.15530.3469
2026-07-240.1340.15430.3438
2026-07-310.1450.15350.3395
2026-08-070.1370.15290.3349
2026-08-140.1390.15180.3287
2026-08-210.1380.15090.3213
2026-08-280.1350.14990.3142
2026-09-040.1370.14920.3079
2026-09-110.1190.14790.3001
2026-09-180.1210.14660.2919
4-week return -12.3%
13-week return -16.6%
26-week return -18.8%
52-week return -37.0%
From 52-week high -49.6%
26-week volatility 32.9%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 13.2% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Five-wave decline maturePrimary swing size · Leading74%
A/B/C reset may be completingPrimary swing size18%
Possible bearish Wave 3 decliningPrimary swing size8%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Five-wave decline mature

74% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 0.121 Fails above 0.172 Count stability Moderate · 68/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 0.243; Wave 2 0.221.
PassWave 3 exceeds Wave 1Wave 1 0.18; Wave 3 0.139.
PassWave 4 does not overlap Wave 1Wave 1 boundary 0.18; Wave 4 0.172.
PassWave 3 is not the shortest motive waveMotive lengths: 0.06, 0.08, 0.05.
PassWave 5 makes motive progressWave 3 0.139; Wave 5 0.121.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 65% of Wave 1.
GuidelineWave 3 extension is plausibleWave 3 is 1.30× Wave 1.
GuidelineWave 4 retracement is proportionateRetraced 40% of Wave 3.
GuidelineWaves 2 and 4 show temporal alternationWave 2 lasted 4w; Wave 4 lasted 6w.
Strategic degreeFive-wave decline mature

Strategic degree uses a 21.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreeFive-wave decline mature

Primary degree uses a 13.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible bearish Wave 3 declining

Tactical degree uses a 9.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing -29.7%

35 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.115

Pivot from 2025-07-11

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.172

Pivot from 2026-01-16

30-week trend 0.1466

Price is -17.5% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.2919

Price is -58.5% from Fair Value

52-week range position 5%

0.115 low · 0.24 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

0 readings are positive, 7 are negative and 0 are neutral. They describe current direction, not whether a mature move has finished.

100% directional agreement

Check whether the move is losing support.

Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

17.5% below trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is not rising.

Falling
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are weakening together.

Falling Stack
Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-20.5
Market activity

Participation is weak

-9.6
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-1.1
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-23.9
Balance of readings Defensive

0 constructive, 7 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is weak.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is negative.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is weak.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is falling. A recovery in price needs support from the other readings.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 25/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseFalling

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementFalling Stack

0/100 constructive · 100/100 risk

Estimated next low12 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high5 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 12w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score1/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough3w
Possible next low7–11w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough3w
Possible next low7–17w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 50w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score25/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough61w
Possible next low30–48w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 100w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score13/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough113w
Possible next low65–109w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 97.1% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 49.6% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Wave maturity

    A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving.

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 100/100.

  • Cycle rollover

    Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.

Downside risk check

Elevated vulnerability

54/100
Wave maturity25/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover11/15
Multi-cycle risk15/15
Count instability3/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.115
52-week high0.24
Annualised volatility32.9%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range6.6%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-97.1%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume243%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

35% constructive

8 of 23 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

9% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^HSIMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks61848%-0.3%-0.3%-14.5% to 17.9%
13 weeks23648%-1.1%-0.1%-22.1% to 33.4%
26 weeks13449%-0.2%-1.2%-26.2% to 49.2%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +0.0% across 109 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

110 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
0.0%
13w
-7.0%
26w
13.0%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 109 36% 0.0% -34.3% to 123.6%
13 weeks 100 35% -7.0% -46.3% to 121.8%
26 weeks 87 58% 13.0% -53.7% to 293.2%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-18 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 13.2% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2024-12-27 Confirmed High 0.209 51.4% 2 weeks
2025-01-24 Confirmed Low 0.114 -45.5% 4 weeks
2025-03-21 Confirmed High 0.143 25.4% 8 weeks
2025-07-11 Confirmed Low 0.115 -19.6% 16 weeks
2025-08-22 Confirmed High 0.275 139.1% 6 weeks
2025-08-29 Confirmed Low 0.19 -30.9% 1 weeks
2025-09-05 Confirmed High 0.243 27.9% 1 weeks
2025-09-12 Confirmed Low 0.18 -25.9% 1 weeks
2025-10-10 Confirmed High 0.221 22.8% 4 weeks
2025-12-05 Confirmed Low 0.139 -37.1% 8 weeks
2026-01-16 Confirmed High 0.172 23.7% 6 weeks
2026-09-18 Forming Low 0.121 -29.7% 35 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context