ASX · Technology · Weekly analysis

DWG Elliott Wave report

DATAWORKS FPO [DWG]

Latest close AUD 0.15 Week ending 11 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

A rebound is being tested

The wave pattern treats the recent rise as a rebound within a larger decline. A fresh fall is still something to confirm.

95/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Triggered Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countHurst crest risk

A, B and C label a three-part correction. The outlined last point is still forming.

Other readingsThe other readings support this direction

5 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 2 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

Main uncertaintyLow count stability

The leading count changed 7 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in AUD · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-09-220.97520.8591.63
2023-09-290.95680.87551.63
2023-10-060.90160.89031.63
2023-10-130.8280.90251.63
2023-10-200.79120.91231.63
2023-10-271.010.92651.63
2023-11-030.95680.93751.62
2023-11-100.99360.94921.62
2023-11-170.99360.95661.61
2023-11-241.010.96271.61
2023-12-010.95680.96581.61
2023-12-080.90160.96831.60
2023-12-150.920.97191.60
2023-12-220.66240.97071.60
2023-12-290.60720.96771.59
2024-01-050.60720.9641.59
2024-01-120.62560.95111.58
2024-01-190.6440.93951.58
2024-01-260.71760.93091.57
2024-02-020.60720.91871.56
2024-02-090.60720.90711.55
2024-02-160.5520.88871.54
2024-02-230.53360.86851.53
2024-03-010.460.84211.52
2024-03-080.460.8171.51
2024-03-150.400.79231.49
2024-03-220.340.7681.48
2024-03-290.300.74251.47
2024-04-050.300.72061.46
2024-04-120.340.69881.45
2024-04-190.280.67561.44
2024-04-260.300.65371.42
2024-05-030.220.6311.40
2024-05-100.280.61271.38
2024-05-170.300.59631.37
2024-05-240.360.57461.35
2024-05-310.300.55271.33
2024-06-070.300.52961.31
2024-06-140.300.50651.29
2024-06-210.300.48271.27
2024-06-280.280.46021.25
2024-07-050.400.44351.23
2024-07-120.400.42611.22
2024-07-190.440.41871.20
2024-07-260.400.41181.18
2024-08-020.480.40761.17
2024-08-090.540.40471.15
2024-08-160.520.40061.14
2024-08-230.580.3961.13
2024-08-300.400.38911.11
2024-09-060.380.38151.10
2024-09-130.320.37381.08
2024-09-200.360.3681.07
2024-09-270.300.36271.05
2024-10-040.280.35671.03
2024-10-110.260.3521.00
2024-10-180.260.34930.9829
2024-10-250.240.34730.9608
2024-11-010.220.34470.9368
2024-11-080.240.34130.9153
2024-11-150.280.34130.8957
2024-11-220.260.340.8795
2024-11-290.220.340.8639
2024-12-060.180.33670.8489
2024-12-130.240.33470.8342
2024-12-200.240.33070.8202
2024-12-270.200.32730.8047
2025-01-030.200.3240.7899
2025-01-100.200.32070.7756
2025-01-170.200.31730.7618
2025-01-240.180.3140.7491
2025-01-310.180.30670.7353
2025-02-070.180.29930.7232
2025-02-140.200.29130.7106
2025-02-210.200.28470.7003
2025-02-280.200.27530.6901
2025-03-070.180.26330.6797
2025-03-140.160.25130.6695
2025-03-210.180.2380.6591
2025-03-280.160.230.6491
2025-04-040.190.22370.6391
2025-04-110.190.21930.6291
2025-04-180.190.21370.6194
2025-04-250.1750.20950.6103
2025-05-020.1550.20530.6017
2025-05-090.150.20170.5935
2025-05-160.140.19770.5863
2025-05-230.140.19430.5793
2025-05-300.130.19130.5727
2025-06-060.100.18670.567
2025-06-130.090.18030.5623
2025-06-200.100.1750.5586
2025-06-270.090.17070.5537
2025-07-040.0850.16750.5479
2025-07-110.080.16220.5428
2025-07-180.080.15680.5375
2025-07-250.080.15280.5318
2025-08-010.080.14880.5266
2025-08-080.080.14480.5213
2025-08-150.060.14020.5159
2025-08-220.0630.13630.511
2025-08-290.060.13230.5062
2025-09-050.060.12830.5019
2025-09-120.0650.12380.4976
2025-09-190.0750.11960.4931
2025-09-260.0750.11540.4891
2025-10-030.0710.11180.4851
2025-10-100.0730.10890.4812
2025-10-170.070.10520.4774
2025-10-240.0680.10220.4737
2025-10-310.06050.09780.4677
2025-11-070.0560.09340.4612
2025-11-140.0560.08890.4558
2025-11-210.0560.0850.4516
2025-11-280.0560.08160.4478
2025-12-050.0560.07850.4442
2025-12-120.0540.07560.4406
2025-12-190.0710.07340.4378
2025-12-260.090.0720.4346
2026-01-020.0920.07180.4314
2026-01-090.0990.0720.4285
2026-01-160.1650.07420.4258
2026-01-230.1650.07670.4235
2026-01-300.150.07890.421
2026-02-060.1750.0820.419
2026-02-130.1650.08490.4171
2026-02-200.2050.0890.4159
2026-02-270.190.09270.4141
2026-03-060.150.0950.4121
2026-03-130.1250.09720.41
2026-03-200.130.09940.4076
2026-03-270.160.10280.4049
2026-04-030.160.10610.4019
2026-04-100.160.10930.3988
2026-04-170.1350.11130.3947
2026-04-240.1450.11360.3904
2026-05-010.120.11520.3856
2026-05-080.140.11750.3812
2026-05-150.12250.11920.3768
2026-05-220.1650.12250.3734
2026-05-290.170.12610.37
2026-06-050.170.12990.3665
2026-06-120.170.13370.3611
2026-06-190.160.13720.3557
2026-06-260.150.14030.3504
2026-07-030.150.14340.3451
2026-07-100.140.14630.3399
2026-07-170.140.14860.3337
2026-07-240.120.14960.3272
2026-07-310.150.15160.3201
2026-08-070.160.15360.3134
2026-08-140.1450.15290.307
2026-08-210.150.15240.3011
2026-08-280.130.15180.2951
2026-09-040.130.15020.2898
2026-09-110.150.14980.2844
4-week return 3.4%
13-week return -11.8%
26-week return 20.0%
52-week return 130.8%
From 52-week high -36.2%
26-week volatility 92.1%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 16.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completingPrimary swing size · Leading37%
Possible bearish Wave 2 crestPrimary swing size26%
Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completingTactical swing size37%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

37% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 0.13 Fails above 0.15 Count stability Low · 0/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave B protects the correction originOrigin 0.12; Wave B 0.13.
PassWave C progresses beyond Wave AA length 0.04; C length 0.02.
GuidelineWave C is proportionate to Wave AWave C is 0.50× Wave A.
Strategic degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreeBearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreeBearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 15.4%

2 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.13

Pivot from 2026-08-28

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.16

Pivot from 2026-08-07

30-week trend 0.1498

Price is 0.2% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.2844

Price is -47.3% from Fair Value

52-week range position 55%

0.045 low · 0.235 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

5 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 2 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

71% directional agreement

The other readings support this direction. 5 readings support the selected direction; 2 lean against it.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

0.2% above trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is not rising.

Falling
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are weakening together.

Falling Stack
Relative strength

Outperforming its benchmark

+21.3
Market activity

Participation is weak

-5.4
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-0.7
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-9.1
Balance of readings Defensive

2 constructive, 5 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is weak. This supports the downward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Outperforming its benchmark. This challenges the downward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is negative. This supports the downward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is weak. This supports the downward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is falling. A recovery in price needs support from the other readings.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 0/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseFalling

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementFalling Stack

0/100 constructive · 100/100 risk

Estimated next low14 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high10 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 8w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough1w
Possible next low5–9w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough1w
Possible next low10–18w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 30w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough1w
Possible next low18–40w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 62w
Current phaseCresting
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough17w
Possible next low33–57w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 96.2% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 36.2% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 100/100.

  • Cycle rollover

    Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.

  • Count instability

    The primary interpretation has low recent stability.

Downside risk check

Watch

36/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover11/15
Multi-cycle risk15/15
Count instability10/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.045
52-week high0.235
Annualised volatility92.1%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range8.6%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-96.2%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume152%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Most analysed peers have an upward wave count. That contrasts with this report’s downward interpretation.

61% constructive

14 of 23 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

17% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^AXJOMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks3053%0.8%-1.8%-11.6% to 14.0%
13 weeks2955%4.8%2.2%-17.1% to 34.6%
26 weeks2463%12.8%9.0%-21.5% to 114.9%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +0.0% across 24 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

25 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
0.0%
13w
-21.1%
26w
-67.4%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 24 46% 0.0% -32.0% to 41.7%
13 weeks 18 22% -21.1% -56.5% to 25.0%
26 weeks 9 0% -67.4% -77.0% to -58.9%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-11 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 16.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2025-09-05 Confirmed Low 0.06 -68.4% 20 weeks
2025-09-26 Confirmed High 0.075 25.0% 3 weeks
2025-12-12 Confirmed Low 0.054 -28.0% 11 weeks
2026-02-20 Confirmed High 0.205 279.6% 10 weeks
2026-03-13 Confirmed Low 0.125 -39.0% 3 weeks
2026-04-10 Confirmed High 0.16 28.0% 4 weeks
2026-05-01 Confirmed Low 0.12 -25.0% 3 weeks
2026-06-12 Confirmed High 0.17 41.7% 6 weeks
2026-07-24 Confirmed Low 0.12 -29.4% 6 weeks
2026-08-07 Confirmed High 0.16 33.3% 2 weeks
2026-08-28 Confirmed Low 0.13 -18.8% 3 weeks
2026-09-11 Forming High 0.15 15.4% 2 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context