HKG · Industrials · Weekly analysis

2503 Elliott Wave report

Zhongshen Jianye Holding Limited

Latest close HKD 0.265 Week ending 18 Sep 2026 History 141 weeks
Current reading

The wave count points to a decline

The selected pattern describes a move downward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

67/100 Setup score 84/100 Data quality Setup in timing window Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countPossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings support this direction

4 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 2 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

Main uncertaintyLow count stability

The leading count changed 6 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in HKD · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2024-01-120.93Unavailable0.93
2024-01-191.04Unavailable0.985
2024-01-261.17Unavailable1.05
2024-02-021.42Unavailable1.14
2024-02-091.05Unavailable1.12
2024-02-161.14Unavailable1.12
2024-02-231.23Unavailable1.14
2024-03-011.00Unavailable1.12
2024-03-080.90Unavailable1.10
2024-03-150.85Unavailable1.07
2024-03-220.82Unavailable1.05
2024-03-290.79Unavailable1.03
2024-04-050.81Unavailable1.01
2024-04-120.76Unavailable0.9936
2024-04-190.73Unavailable0.976
2024-04-261.00Unavailable0.9775
2024-05-030.99Unavailable0.9782
2024-05-100.83Unavailable0.97
2024-05-170.80Unavailable0.9611
2024-05-240.86Unavailable0.956
2024-05-310.79Unavailable0.9481
2024-06-070.82Unavailable0.9423
2024-06-140.89Unavailable0.94
2024-06-210.92Unavailable0.9392
2024-06-280.90Unavailable0.9376
2024-07-050.90Unavailable0.9362
2024-07-120.89Unavailable0.9344
2024-07-190.97Unavailable0.9357
2024-07-260.87Unavailable0.9334
2024-08-020.810.92930.9293
2024-08-090.800.9250.9252
2024-08-160.740.9150.9194
2024-08-230.660.8980.9115
2024-08-300.630.87170.9032
2024-09-060.740.86130.8986
2024-09-130.600.84330.8903
2024-09-200.600.82230.8824
2024-09-270.610.80930.8753
2024-10-040.580.79870.8677
2024-10-110.590.790.8608
2024-10-180.660.78470.8559
2024-10-250.600.77830.8498
2024-11-010.620.7720.8444
2024-11-080.650.76830.84
2024-11-150.720.7680.8373
2024-11-220.590.75430.832
2024-11-290.600.74130.827
2024-12-060.590.73330.8221
2024-12-130.620.72730.818
2024-12-200.630.71970.8142
2024-12-270.660.71530.8112
2025-01-030.630.7090.8077
2025-01-100.590.6990.8036
2025-01-170.750.69330.8026
2025-01-240.850.69170.8035
2025-01-310.930.69270.8057
2025-02-070.880.69230.807
2025-02-141.120.69730.8124
2025-02-211.150.70670.8181
2025-02-281.110.71670.823
2025-03-071.150.72830.8284
2025-03-141.050.73870.8319
2025-03-211.040.75130.8352
2025-03-280.960.76230.8372
2025-04-040.860.76630.8375
2025-04-110.770.7720.8365
2025-04-180.690.7750.8343
2025-04-250.690.77770.8322
2025-05-020.610.77870.829
2025-05-090.610.77930.8259
2025-05-160.730.78170.8245
2025-05-230.810.78870.8243
2025-05-300.800.79470.824
2025-06-060.800.79970.8236
2025-06-130.730.800.8224
2025-06-200.740.8050.8213
2025-06-270.730.80930.8201
2025-07-041.000.8230.8224
2025-07-111.520.8530.8313
2025-07-181.800.8920.8434
2025-07-251.610.92370.8528
2025-08-011.500.95270.8607
2025-08-081.300.97630.866
2025-08-151.300.99470.8712
2025-08-221.111.000.874
2025-08-291.421.020.8803
2025-09-050.551.010.8766
2025-09-120.440.9860.8716
2025-09-190.670.970.8693
2025-09-260.580.95230.8661
2025-10-030.570.9330.8629
2025-10-100.580.91730.8598
2025-10-170.640.9040.8574
2025-10-240.560.89070.8543
2025-10-310.570.8810.8513
2025-11-070.600.87530.8486
2025-11-140.780.87830.8479
2025-11-210.690.87830.8463
2025-11-280.630.8790.8441
2025-12-050.620.87930.8419
2025-12-120.630.8760.8398
2025-12-190.560.86770.8371
2025-12-260.510.8580.8339
2026-01-020.500.8480.8307
2026-01-090.560.84230.8281
2026-01-160.540.83570.8254
2026-01-230.510.82830.8224
2026-01-300.480.8110.8193
2026-02-060.430.77470.8157
2026-02-130.4450.72950.8123
2026-02-200.4250.690.8088
2026-02-270.390.6530.8051
2026-03-060.340.6210.801
2026-03-130.280.5870.7964
2026-03-200.2310.55770.7915
2026-03-270.2210.51770.7866
2026-04-030.2270.5070.7818
2026-04-100.280.50160.7775
2026-04-170.3450.49080.7739
2026-04-240.330.48250.7702
2026-05-010.3650.47560.7669
2026-05-080.3050.46650.7631
2026-05-150.20860.45210.7586
2026-05-220.210.44040.7541
2026-05-290.2140.42860.7498
2026-06-050.1860.41480.7453
2026-06-120.1860.3950.7409
2026-06-190.1860.37820.7366
2026-06-260.180.36320.7323
2026-07-030.1850.34870.7281
2026-07-100.200.33430.724
2026-07-170.2270.32320.7203
2026-07-240.260.31490.7168
2026-07-310.2480.30650.7133
2026-08-070.3350.2990.7105
2026-08-140.2550.28950.7072
2026-08-210.2650.28130.7039
2026-08-280.2470.27360.7006
2026-09-040.2550.26770.6974
2026-09-110.2480.26120.6942
2026-09-180.2650.25580.6912
4-week return 0.0%
13-week return 42.5%
26-week return 14.7%
52-week return -60.4%
From 52-week high -68.5%
26-week volatility 100.5%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 16.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 2 crestPrimary swing size · Leading33%
Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completingPrimary swing size33%
Possible bearish Wave 2 crestStrategic swing size33%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Possible bearish Wave 2 crest

33% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 0.255 Fails above 0.335 Count stability Low · 4/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 0.335; Wave 2 0.265.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 13% of Wave 1.
Strategic degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 3.9%

5 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.255

Pivot from 2026-08-14

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.335

Pivot from 2026-08-07

30-week trend 0.2558

Price is 3.6% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.6912

Price is -61.7% from Fair Value

52-week range position 14%

0.174 low · 0.84 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

4 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 2 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

57% directional agreement

The other readings support this direction. 4 readings support the selected direction; 2 lean against it.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

3.6% above trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is not rising.

Cresting
Cycle alignment

Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction.

Mixed
Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-28.3
Market activity

Participation is weak

-12.1
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+1.5
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-37.6
Balance of readings Defensive

2 constructive, 4 weak and 1 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is weak. This supports the downward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark. This supports the downward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is negative. This supports the downward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is near a high and starting to turn. Watch whether price and momentum also weaken.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 23/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseCresting

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementMixed

50/100 constructive · 50/100 risk

Estimated next low6 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high11 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 12w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough14w
Possible next low7–13w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 22w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score23/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough1w
Possible next low16–26w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 30w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough24w
Possible next low0–12w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 80w
Current phaseTroughing
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough12w
Possible next low49–87w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 85.3% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 68.5% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Cycle rollover

    Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.

  • Count instability

    The primary interpretation has low recent stability.

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 50/100.

Downside risk check

Watch

33/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover15/15
Multi-cycle risk8/15
Count instability10/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.174
52-week high0.84
Annualised volatility100.5%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range10.7%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-85.3%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume638%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Most analysed peers have an upward wave count. That contrasts with this report’s downward interpretation.

59% constructive

13 of 22 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

32% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^HSIMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks11353%2.0%1.3%-8.7% to 11.7%
13 weeks7359%1.8%1.8%-14.1% to 26.1%
26 weeks6266%8.2%9.0%-11.4% to 43.7%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

There are not enough completed, comparable outcomes to draw a useful historical comparison.

3 similar weekly states
Not enough comparable history yet

Historical context appears only when at least eight completed outcomes are available for one of the measured horizons.

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality84/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
54/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-18 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 16.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2025-08-22 Confirmed Low 1.11 -38.3% 5 weeks
2025-08-29 Confirmed High 1.42 27.9% 1 weeks
2025-09-12 Confirmed Low 0.44 -69.0% 2 weeks
2025-09-19 Confirmed High 0.67 52.3% 1 weeks
2025-10-24 Confirmed Low 0.56 -16.4% 5 weeks
2025-11-14 Confirmed High 0.78 39.3% 3 weeks
2026-03-27 Confirmed Low 0.221 -71.7% 19 weeks
2026-05-01 Confirmed High 0.365 65.2% 5 weeks
2026-06-26 Confirmed Low 0.18 -50.7% 8 weeks
2026-08-07 Confirmed High 0.335 86.1% 6 weeks
2026-08-14 Confirmed Low 0.255 -23.9% 1 weeks
2026-09-18 Forming High 0.265 3.9% 5 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context