TOR · Basic Materials · Weekly analysis

ITH Elliott Wave report

International Tower Hill Mines Ltd.

Latest close CAD 3.83 Week ending 18 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

The wave count points to a decline

The selected pattern describes a move downward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

59/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Watching Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countHurst crest risk

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings point the other way

6 of 7 available readings lean against the downward wave interpretation; 1 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

Main uncertaintyLow count stability

The leading count changed 5 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in CAD · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-09-290.490.62071.02
2023-10-060.480.61371.02
2023-10-130.540.60731.01
2023-10-200.580.6020.9976
2023-10-270.550.59330.9885
2023-11-030.510.5820.9785
2023-11-100.510.57270.9693
2023-11-170.480.5650.9606
2023-11-240.490.55830.9522
2023-12-010.740.5580.9451
2023-12-080.640.55630.9383
2023-12-150.680.5580.9306
2023-12-220.750.56070.9236
2023-12-290.770.5650.9171
2024-01-050.890.5750.9121
2024-01-120.850.58430.9072
2024-01-190.730.5890.9011
2024-01-260.750.59570.8952
2024-02-020.820.60330.8894
2024-02-090.740.60870.8829
2024-02-160.760.61570.8783
2024-02-230.700.6210.8738
2024-03-010.770.62930.8694
2024-03-080.840.63930.8652
2024-03-150.940.65370.8604
2024-03-220.850.66270.8571
2024-03-290.900.6760.8539
2024-04-050.950.6910.8506
2024-04-121.040.70830.8485
2024-04-190.900.72130.8453
2024-04-260.880.73430.8431
2024-05-030.920.7490.8403
2024-05-100.910.76130.8382
2024-05-170.930.7730.8358
2024-05-240.920.78530.8329
2024-05-310.810.79530.8297
2024-06-070.810.80530.8266
2024-06-140.750.81430.8233
2024-06-210.710.82170.8194
2024-06-280.680.81970.8151
2024-07-050.690.82130.8113
2024-07-120.680.82130.8071
2024-07-190.640.81770.8032
2024-07-260.650.81370.7993
2024-08-020.620.80470.7954
2024-08-090.570.79530.7923
2024-08-160.610.79130.789
2024-08-230.760.79170.787
2024-08-300.690.78730.7841
2024-09-060.680.78530.7817
2024-09-130.710.78370.7801
2024-09-200.760.78570.7795
2024-09-270.790.78630.7782
2024-10-040.750.78330.7769
2024-10-110.860.78070.7757
2024-10-180.980.7850.7754
2024-10-250.900.7850.7747
2024-11-010.840.78130.7744
2024-11-080.700.770.7712
2024-11-150.600.760.7679
2024-11-220.630.75170.7648
2024-11-290.640.74230.7631
2024-12-060.660.7340.7614
2024-12-130.720.7270.7597
2024-12-200.670.71870.7575
2024-12-270.640.7130.7557
2025-01-030.690.7090.7542
2025-01-100.710.70770.752
2025-01-170.750.7090.7503
2025-01-240.710.710.749
2025-01-310.680.70970.7475
2025-02-070.730.71130.7456
2025-02-140.700.71330.7409
2025-02-210.710.71530.7374
2025-02-280.680.71730.7335
2025-03-070.910.72870.7313
2025-03-140.940.73970.7297
2025-03-210.970.74670.7276
2025-03-280.930.75470.7254
2025-04-040.730.75630.7221
2025-04-110.910.7630.7198
2025-04-180.910.7680.718
2025-04-250.870.77070.7161
2025-05-020.950.77730.7155
2025-05-091.180.7880.7171
2025-05-160.920.7860.7171
2025-05-231.200.7960.719
2025-05-301.110.8050.7206
2025-06-061.320.82570.7237
2025-06-131.270.8480.727
2025-06-201.180.86630.7297
2025-06-271.180.88430.7329
2025-07-041.200.90230.7361
2025-07-111.510.92870.7414
2025-07-181.410.95330.7458
2025-07-251.540.98330.7505
2025-08-011.561.010.7558
2025-08-081.941.050.7635
2025-08-151.661.080.7697
2025-08-221.931.120.7775
2025-08-291.931.170.7858
2025-09-051.901.200.794
2025-09-122.211.260.8042
2025-09-192.191.300.8143
2025-09-262.171.350.8237
2025-10-032.601.410.8362
2025-10-102.741.470.8499
2025-10-172.851.530.8637
2025-10-242.541.590.8762
2025-10-312.541.650.8887
2025-11-072.361.700.8994
2025-11-142.321.740.9104
2025-11-212.091.780.9199
2025-11-282.721.840.9336
2025-12-052.411.880.945
2025-12-122.861.950.9598
2025-12-192.852.000.9743
2025-12-262.732.060.9881
2026-01-022.572.101.00
2026-01-092.972.161.01
2026-01-163.132.221.03
2026-01-233.462.301.05
2026-01-303.532.371.06
2026-02-063.482.441.08
2026-02-133.382.511.10
2026-02-203.712.581.12
2026-02-274.782.681.14
2026-03-064.122.761.16
2026-03-133.492.821.18
2026-03-202.772.851.19
2026-03-272.992.881.21
2026-04-033.242.931.22
2026-04-103.632.971.24
2026-04-173.623.021.26
2026-04-243.613.071.28
2026-05-013.163.091.29
2026-05-083.513.111.31
2026-05-153.393.131.33
2026-05-223.283.161.35
2026-05-293.763.201.37
2026-06-052.843.211.38
2026-06-122.963.231.40
2026-06-193.113.271.41
2026-06-262.963.281.43
2026-07-033.293.311.45
2026-07-103.043.311.46
2026-07-172.813.311.48
2026-07-242.883.321.49
2026-07-312.473.311.50
2026-08-073.133.321.52
2026-08-143.753.341.54
2026-08-213.873.351.56
2026-08-283.643.361.58
2026-09-043.483.361.60
2026-09-113.353.351.62
2026-09-183.833.361.64
4-week return -1.0%
13-week return 23.2%
26-week return 38.3%
52-week return 74.9%
From 52-week high -22.5%
26-week volatility 80.1%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 16.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 2 crestTactical swing size · Leading60%
Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completingTactical swing size40%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Possible bearish Wave 2 crest

60% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 3.35 Fails above 3.87 Count stability Low · 20/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 3.87; Wave 2 3.83.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 92% of Wave 1.
Strategic degreeNo valid count

Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreeNo valid count

Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 55.1%

7 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 2.47

Pivot from 2026-07-31

Nearest confirmed resistance 4.78

Pivot from 2026-02-27

30-week trend 3.36

Price is 14.0% from trend

Fair Value reference 1.64

Price is 133.4% from Fair Value

52-week range position 62%

2.02 low · 4.94 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

6 of 7 available readings lean against the downward wave interpretation; 1 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

86% directional agreement

The other readings point the other way. 1 readings support the selected direction; 6 lean against it.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

14.0% above trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Rising
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are weakening together.

Falling Stack
Relative strength

Outperforming its benchmark

+14.0
Market activity

Participation is supportive

+25.0
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+0.7
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+3.2
Balance of readings Constructive

6 constructive, 1 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Outperforming its benchmark. This challenges the downward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is positive. This challenges the downward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is rising. That supports the recent upswing, but it does not establish how long it will last.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 72/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseRising

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementFalling Stack

25/100 constructive · 75/100 risk

Estimated next low2 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high12 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 11w
Current phaseCresting
Repeat score4/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough1w
Possible next low8–12w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w
Current phaseCresting
Repeat score13/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough7w
Possible next low4–12w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 50w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough5w
Possible next low33–57w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 83w
Current phaseCresting
Repeat score72/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough81w
Possible next low0–11w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 19.9% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 22.5% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Trend extension

    Price is 14.0% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 75/100.

  • Count instability

    The primary interpretation has low recent stability.

Downside risk check

Watch

31/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension12/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover0/15
Multi-cycle risk11/15
Count instability8/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low2.02
52-week high4.94
Annualised volatility80.1%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range8.0%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-19.9%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume371%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

39% constructive

9 of 23 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

30% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^GSPTSEMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks83058%2.6%1.2%-11.3% to 16.9%
13 weeks29963%6.6%2.9%-17.6% to 37.2%
26 weeks16464%13.0%5.9%-20.2% to 67.4%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +4.0% across 97 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

98 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
4.1%
13w
9.7%
26w
8.9%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 97 56% 4.1% -38.8% to 39.1%
13 weeks 96 60% 9.7% -37.4% to 116.7%
26 weeks 93 57% 8.9% -43.5% to 256.2%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-18 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 16.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2024-11-15 Confirmed Low 0.60 -38.8% 4 weeks
2025-03-21 Confirmed High 0.97 61.7% 18 weeks
2025-04-04 Confirmed Low 0.73 -24.7% 2 weeks
2025-05-09 Confirmed High 1.18 61.6% 5 weeks
2025-05-16 Confirmed Low 0.92 -22.0% 1 weeks
2025-10-17 Confirmed High 2.85 209.8% 22 weeks
2025-11-21 Confirmed Low 2.09 -26.7% 5 weeks
2026-02-27 Confirmed High 4.78 128.7% 14 weeks
2026-03-20 Confirmed Low 2.77 -42.1% 3 weeks
2026-05-29 Confirmed High 3.76 35.7% 10 weeks
2026-07-31 Confirmed Low 2.47 -34.3% 9 weeks
2026-09-18 Forming High 3.83 55.1% 7 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context