ASX · Basic Materials · Weekly analysis

LML Elliott Wave report

Lincoln Minerals Limited

Latest close AUD 0.009 Week ending 11 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

The wave count points to a decline

The selected pattern describes a move downward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

95/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Watching Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countHurst crest risk

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings support this direction

7 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 0 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

Main uncertaintyLow count stability

The leading count changed 6 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in AUD · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-09-220.0060.0086670.007676
2023-09-290.0060.0083670.007671
2023-10-060.0070.0081670.007671
2023-10-130.0080.00810.007679
2023-10-200.0070.0079670.00768
2023-10-270.0090.0079330.007693
2023-11-030.00750.0078170.007698
2023-11-100.00650.00770.007695
2023-11-170.0070.00760.007696
2023-11-240.0070.00750.007697
2023-12-010.0070.0074330.007698
2023-12-080.0060.0073670.007693
2023-12-150.0060.0073330.007687
2023-12-220.0060.00730.007682
2023-12-290.0060.0072330.007676
2024-01-050.0060.0071670.007671
2024-01-120.0060.0070670.007665
2024-01-190.0060.0070330.00766
2024-01-260.0050.0068670.007648
2024-02-020.0050.0066330.007636
2024-02-090.0060.0063670.007631
2024-02-160.0070.00630.007632
2024-02-230.0060.0062670.007626
2024-03-010.0060.00630.007621
2024-03-080.00650.0063170.007618
2024-03-150.00550.00630.00761
2024-03-220.0070.0063670.007611
2024-03-290.0070.00640.007612
2024-04-050.0070.0064670.007612
2024-04-120.0080.0065330.00762
2024-04-190.0080.00660.007627
2024-04-260.0070.0066330.007628
2024-05-030.00650.0066170.007626
2024-05-100.0070.0065830.007627
2024-05-170.0080.0066170.007634
2024-05-240.00750.0065670.007638
2024-05-310.00750.0065670.007642
2024-06-070.0070.0065830.007643
2024-06-140.0060.006550.007638
2024-06-210.0070.006550.007639
2024-06-280.0060.0065170.007633
2024-07-050.0060.0065170.007628
2024-07-120.0060.0065170.007622
2024-07-190.0060.0065170.007617
2024-07-260.00550.00650.007608
2024-08-020.00550.0064830.0076
2024-08-090.0060.0064830.007594
2024-08-160.0060.0064830.007589
2024-08-230.0050.0064830.007577
2024-08-300.0050.0064830.007565
2024-09-060.0040.0064170.007546
2024-09-130.0050.006350.007535
2024-09-200.0060.006350.007529
2024-09-270.0060.006350.007524
2024-10-040.0060.0063330.007518
2024-10-110.0060.006350.007513
2024-10-180.0060.0063170.007507
2024-10-250.0060.0062830.007502
2024-11-010.0070.0062830.007503
2024-11-080.0070.006250.007504
2024-11-150.0070.0062170.007505
2024-11-220.0050.006150.007493
2024-11-290.0060.0061330.007487
2024-12-060.0060.00610.007482
2024-12-130.0060.0060330.007476
2024-12-200.0050.005950.007464
2024-12-270.0050.0058670.007452
2025-01-030.0060.0058330.007447
2025-01-100.0060.0058330.007442
2025-01-170.0050.0057670.00743
2025-01-240.0050.0057330.007418
2025-01-310.00450.0056830.007403
2025-02-070.0060.0056830.007397
2025-02-140.0060.0056830.007392
2025-02-210.0060.00570.007386
2025-02-280.0060.0057170.007381
2025-03-070.0050.0056830.007369
2025-03-140.0050.005650.007357
2025-03-210.0050.005650.007345
2025-03-280.0050.005650.007333
2025-04-040.0040.005650.007315
2025-04-110.0050.005650.007303
2025-04-180.0050.0056170.007291
2025-04-250.0040.005550.007273
2025-05-020.0050.0055170.007261
2025-05-090.0050.0054830.007249
2025-05-160.0040.0054170.007231
2025-05-230.00550.00540.007222
2025-05-300.0050.0053330.00721
2025-06-060.0040.0052330.007192
2025-06-130.00450.005150.007177
2025-06-200.0050.005150.007165
2025-06-270.0060.005150.00716
2025-07-040.0060.005150.007154
2025-07-110.00650.0051670.007152
2025-07-180.0070.0052330.007153
2025-07-250.0070.00530.007154
2025-08-010.0066710.0053220.007152
2025-08-080.0080.0053890.00716
2025-08-150.0070.0054560.007161
2025-08-220.0090.0055890.007175
2025-08-290.0090.0057390.007188
2025-09-050.0070.0057720.007189
2025-09-120.0070.0058060.00719
2025-09-190.0060.0058060.007185
2025-09-260.00650.0058220.007182
2025-10-030.0060.0058560.007177
2025-10-100.0070.0059220.007178
2025-10-170.0080.0060220.007185
2025-10-240.00850.0061390.007196
2025-10-310.0080.0062720.007203
2025-11-070.0080.0063720.00721
2025-11-140.010.0065390.007231
2025-11-210.0080.0066720.007238
2025-11-280.0080.0067720.007245
2025-12-050.0090.0069060.007259
2025-12-120.0110.0071390.007286
2025-12-190.0110.0073220.007312
2025-12-260.0120.0075560.007345
2026-01-020.0150.0079220.007398
2026-01-090.0150.0082720.00745
2026-01-160.0150.0086060.007456
2026-01-230.0160.0089390.007411
2026-01-300.020.0094060.007399
2026-02-060.0160.0097220.007379
2026-02-130.0150.0099890.007354
2026-02-200.0140.01020.007328
2026-02-270.0140.01050.007322
2026-03-060.0130.01060.007322
2026-03-130.0090.01070.007315
2026-03-200.0110.01080.007315
2026-03-270.0120.01090.007328
2026-04-030.01050.0110.007325
2026-04-100.0120.01120.007338
2026-04-170.0150.01140.00737
2026-04-240.0130.01170.007389
2026-05-010.0110.01180.007402
2026-05-080.01150.0120.007424
2026-05-150.0110.01210.00745
2026-05-220.0120.01220.007482
2026-05-290.0130.01240.007514
2026-06-050.0110.01250.007533
2026-06-120.0110.01250.007546
2026-06-190.0110.01260.007572
2026-06-260.0120.01270.007584
2026-07-030.0120.01280.007584
2026-07-100.0110.01280.007565
2026-07-170.01250.01290.007588
2026-07-240.0140.0130.007633
2026-07-310.0110.01280.007671
2026-08-070.0070.01260.007677
2026-08-140.0080.01230.00769
2026-08-210.0080.0120.007709
2026-08-280.0070.01160.007716
2026-09-040.0070.01130.007729
2026-09-110.0090.01110.007748
4-week return 12.5%
13-week return -18.2%
26-week return 0.0%
52-week return 28.6%
From 52-week high -57.1%
26-week volatility 107.8%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 16.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 4 crestPrimary swing size · Leading48%
Possible bearish Wave 2 crestPrimary swing size3%
Possible bearish Wave 4 crestStrategic swing size48%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Possible bearish Wave 4 crest

48% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 0.007 Fails above 0.014 Count stability Low · 4/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 0.015; Wave 2 0.014.
PassWave 3 exceeds Wave 1Wave 1 0.011; Wave 3 0.007.
PassWave 4 does not overlap Wave 1Wave 1 boundary 0.011; Wave 4 0.009.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 75% of Wave 1.
GuidelineWave 3 extension is plausibleWave 3 is 1.75× Wave 1.
GuidelineWave 4 retracement is proportionateRetraced 29% of Wave 3.
GuidelineWaves 2 and 4 show temporal alternationWave 2 lasted 10w; Wave 4 lasted 1w.
Strategic degreePossible bearish Wave 4 crest

Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible bearish Wave 4 crest

Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreeNo valid count

Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 28.6%

1 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.007

Pivot from 2026-09-04

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.014

Pivot from 2026-07-24

30-week trend 0.0111

Price is -19.0% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.007748

Price is 16.2% from Fair Value

52-week range position 25%

0.005 low · 0.021 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

7 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 0 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

100% directional agreement

The other readings support this direction. 7 readings support the selected direction; 0 lean against it.

Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

19.0% below trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is not rising.

Falling
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are weakening together.

Falling Stack
Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-17.7
Market activity

Participation is weak

-38.6
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-0.8
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-40.0
Balance of readings Defensive

0 constructive, 7 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is weak. This supports the downward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark. This supports the downward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is negative. This supports the downward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is weak. This supports the downward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is falling. A recovery in price needs support from the other readings.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 19/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseFalling

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementFalling Stack

25/100 constructive · 75/100 risk

Estimated next low24 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high19 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 12w
Current phaseTroughing
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough1w
Possible next low7–15w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 25w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score19/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough1w
Possible next low13–35w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 30w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough1w
Possible next low22–36w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 64w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough65w
Possible next low51–75w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 60.9% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 57.1% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Cycle rollover

    Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 75/100.

  • Count instability

    The primary interpretation has low recent stability.

Downside risk check

Watch

32/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover11/15
Multi-cycle risk11/15
Count instability10/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.005
52-week high0.021
Annualised volatility107.8%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range17.8%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-60.9%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume295%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Most analysed peers have an upward wave count. That contrasts with this report’s downward interpretation.

73% constructive

16 of 22 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

32% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^AXJOMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks35362%2.9%1.6%-11.1% to 19.7%
13 weeks14761%5.4%3.6%-15.2% to 35.3%
26 weeks8965%15.5%7.1%-19.0% to 55.3%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +0.0% across 78 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

79 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
0.0%
13w
14.3%
26w
10.0%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 78 44% 0.0% -33.3% to 235.8%
13 weeks 77 56% 14.3% -37.5% to 119.0%
26 weeks 77 56% 10.0% -33.3% to 150.0%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-11 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 16.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2025-06-06 Confirmed Low 0.004 -27.3% 2 weeks
2025-08-29 Confirmed High 0.009 125.0% 12 weeks
2025-10-03 Confirmed Low 0.006 -33.3% 5 weeks
2025-11-14 Confirmed High 0.01 66.7% 6 weeks
2025-11-28 Confirmed Low 0.008 -20.0% 2 weeks
2026-01-30 Confirmed High 0.02 150.0% 9 weeks
2026-03-13 Confirmed Low 0.009 -55.0% 6 weeks
2026-04-17 Confirmed High 0.015 66.7% 5 weeks
2026-05-15 Confirmed Low 0.011 -26.7% 4 weeks
2026-07-24 Confirmed High 0.014 27.3% 10 weeks
2026-09-04 Confirmed Low 0.007 -50.0% 6 weeks
2026-09-11 Forming High 0.009 28.6% 1 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context