SES · Consumer Cyclical · Weekly analysis

42L Elliott Wave report

Taka Jewellery Holdings Limited

Latest close SGD 0.205 Week ending 18 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

The five-wave move is mature

The count describes a move that may be nearing its end. Watch for a confirmed reversal; maturity alone does not mean price has turned.

71/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Mature / manage risk Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countFive-wave advance mature

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsCheck whether the move is losing support

5 readings are positive, 2 are negative and 0 are neutral. They describe current direction, not whether a mature move has finished.

Main uncertaintyLow count stability

The leading count changed 4 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in SGD · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-09-290.0720.07290.0634
2023-10-060.07110.0730.0635
2023-10-130.06150.07260.0636
2023-10-200.06240.07240.0637
2023-10-270.06240.07220.0637
2023-11-030.06240.07170.0638
2023-11-100.06240.07130.064
2023-11-170.06240.07110.064
2023-11-240.07110.07110.0642
2023-12-010.07110.07110.0643
2023-12-080.07010.0710.0645
2023-12-150.06630.07090.0646
2023-12-220.06630.07070.0647
2023-12-290.06720.07050.0648
2024-01-050.06530.07030.0648
2024-01-120.06630.07030.0648
2024-01-190.06630.06990.0648
2024-01-260.05960.06960.0648
2024-02-020.06530.06910.0648
2024-02-090.06530.06860.0648
2024-02-160.06340.06820.0648
2024-02-230.06050.06750.0648
2024-03-010.06050.06670.0648
2024-03-080.06050.06590.0648
2024-03-150.06340.06540.0648
2024-03-220.06340.06510.0648
2024-03-290.05480.06450.0648
2024-04-050.05760.06420.0647
2024-04-120.05860.06410.0647
2024-04-190.05760.06390.0646
2024-04-260.05570.06340.0646
2024-05-030.06820.06330.0647
2024-05-100.06440.06340.0647
2024-05-170.07590.06380.0648
2024-05-240.07590.06430.0649
2024-05-310.07010.06450.065
2024-06-070.08070.06510.0651
2024-06-140.06720.06530.0651
2024-06-210.06820.06520.0651
2024-06-280.06820.06510.0651
2024-07-050.06820.0650.0652
2024-07-120.06530.0650.0652
2024-07-190.07590.06530.0652
2024-07-260.07590.06560.0653
2024-08-020.07590.0660.0654
2024-08-090.07590.06630.0655
2024-08-160.0720.06650.0655
2024-08-230.07490.0670.0656
2024-08-300.07110.06720.0656
2024-09-060.07110.06740.0657
2024-09-130.07490.06780.0657
2024-09-200.07690.06830.0658
2024-09-270.07780.06890.0659
2024-10-040.08260.06960.066
2024-10-110.08450.07030.0662
2024-10-180.08360.0710.0663
2024-10-250.08650.0720.0665
2024-11-010.08630.0730.0666
2024-11-080.09020.07410.0668
2024-11-150.09220.07520.067
2024-11-220.08730.07630.0671
2024-11-290.08630.07690.0673
2024-12-060.09020.07770.0674
2024-12-130.09020.07820.0676
2024-12-200.09020.07870.0678
2024-12-270.09020.07930.068
2025-01-030.09120.07970.0682
2025-01-100.08830.08040.0683
2025-01-170.08830.08110.0685
2025-01-240.08630.08170.0687
2025-01-310.08630.08230.0689
2025-02-070.08920.08310.069
2025-02-140.09120.08360.0692
2025-02-210.09220.08410.0694
2025-02-280.09120.08460.0696
2025-03-070.09120.08510.0697
2025-03-140.09320.08580.0699
2025-03-210.1030.08680.0702
2025-03-280.1020.08780.0704
2025-04-040.09810.08870.0707
2025-04-110.08920.08920.0708
2025-04-180.08920.08960.071
2025-04-250.09120.090.0712
2025-05-020.100.09060.0715
2025-05-090.100.09110.0717
2025-05-160.09320.09150.072
2025-05-230.1020.0920.0722
2025-05-300.1020.09250.0725
2025-06-060.10390.0930.0727
2025-06-130.1020.09330.073
2025-06-200.10690.09390.0733
2025-06-270.11180.09480.0737
2025-07-040.11570.09560.074
2025-07-110.11670.09650.0744
2025-07-180.12060.09750.0748
2025-07-250.11770.09840.0753
2025-08-010.11670.09930.0757
2025-08-080.11670.10020.0761
2025-08-150.14610.10220.0766
2025-08-220.14220.1040.0771
2025-08-290.14610.1060.0777
2025-09-050.14610.10790.0782
2025-09-120.1520.110.0788
2025-09-190.1510.11190.0793
2025-09-260.14320.11360.0798
2025-10-030.13920.11530.0803
2025-10-100.13730.11670.0808
2025-10-170.14220.1180.0813
2025-10-240.13920.11930.0818
2025-10-310.14220.12070.0823
2025-11-070.13530.12230.0827
2025-11-140.1350.12380.0832
2025-11-210.1240.12490.0836
2025-11-280.1280.12580.0841
2025-12-050.1290.12680.0845
2025-12-120.1290.1280.0849
2025-12-190.1290.12890.0854
2025-12-260.1250.12970.0858
2026-01-020.1360.13070.0862
2026-01-090.130.13170.0867
2026-01-160.1360.13260.0871
2026-01-230.1510.13390.0877
2026-01-300.1840.13620.0884
2026-02-060.1970.13890.0892
2026-02-130.210.14190.0901
2026-02-200.2150.14510.091
2026-02-270.220.14860.092
2026-03-060.1990.15130.0928
2026-03-130.1990.15310.0936
2026-03-200.2050.15520.0945
2026-03-270.1940.15680.0953
2026-04-030.1960.15840.0961
2026-04-100.1940.15980.0968
2026-04-170.1950.16130.0976
2026-04-240.2050.16330.0985
2026-05-010.2050.16550.0994
2026-05-080.2050.16780.1002
2026-05-150.2050.16990.1011
2026-05-220.200.17190.1019
2026-05-290.200.17380.1027
2026-06-050.200.1760.1035
2026-06-120.1990.17810.1044
2026-06-190.1990.18060.1052
2026-06-260.1970.18290.106
2026-07-030.1830.18470.1066
2026-07-100.1930.18690.1074
2026-07-170.1920.1890.1081
2026-07-240.1980.19140.1089
2026-07-310.1950.19340.1096
2026-08-070.1980.19560.1103
2026-08-140.190.19740.111
2026-08-210.1950.19890.1118
2026-08-280.1960.19930.1126
2026-09-040.200.19940.1134
2026-09-110.1980.1990.1143
2026-09-180.2050.19870.1152
4-week return 5.1%
13-week return 3.0%
26-week return 0.0%
52-week return 35.8%
From 52-week high -10.9%
26-week volatility 20.0%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 7.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Five-wave advance maturePrimary swing size · Leading90%
Possible bearish Wave 2 crestPrimary swing size6%
Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completingPrimary swing size4%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Five-wave advance mature

90% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm above 0.205 Fails below 0.183 Count stability Low · 36/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 0.0892; Wave 2 0.124.
PassWave 3 exceeds Wave 1Wave 1 0.152; Wave 3 0.22.
PassWave 4 does not overlap Wave 1Wave 1 boundary 0.152; Wave 4 0.183.
PassWave 3 is not the shortest motive waveMotive lengths: 0.06, 0.10, 0.02.
FailWave 5 makes motive progressWave 3 0.22; Wave 5 0.205.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 45% of Wave 1.
GuidelineWave 3 extension is plausibleWave 3 is 1.53× Wave 1.
GuidelineWave 4 retracement is proportionateRetraced 39% of Wave 3.
GuidelineWaves 2 and 4 show temporal alternationWave 2 lasted 10w; Wave 4 lasted 18w.
Strategic degreeFive-wave advance mature

Strategic degree uses a 11.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreeFive-wave advance mature

Primary degree uses a 7.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreeNo valid count

Tactical degree uses a 4.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 12.0%

11 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.183

Pivot from 2026-07-03

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.22

Pivot from 2026-02-27

30-week trend 0.1987

Price is 3.2% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.1152

Price is 77.9% from Fair Value

52-week range position 77%

0.12 low · 0.23 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

5 readings are positive, 2 are negative and 0 are neutral. They describe current direction, not whether a mature move has finished.

71% directional agreement

Check whether the move is losing support.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

3.2% above trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Rising
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are improving together.

Rising Stack
Relative strength

Outperforming its benchmark

+2.4
Market activity

Participation is supportive

+4.0
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-0.0
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-4.7
Balance of readings Constructive

5 constructive, 2 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Outperforming its benchmark.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is negative.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is weak.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is rising. That supports the recent upswing, but it does not establish how long it will last.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 25/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseRising

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementRising Stack

75/100 constructive · 25/100 risk

Estimated next low19 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high4 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 8w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough1w
Possible next low5–9w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 24w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score22/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough5w
Possible next low8–30w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 30w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score23/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough1w
Possible next low21–37w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 65w
Current phaseCresting
Repeat score25/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough34w
Possible next low4–58w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 6.8% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 10.9% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Wave maturity

    A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving.

  • Count instability

    The primary interpretation has low recent stability.

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 25/100.

Downside risk check

Watch

36/100
Wave maturity25/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position1/15
Cycle rollover0/15
Multi-cycle risk4/15
Count instability6/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.12
52-week high0.23
Annualised volatility20.0%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range2.8%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-6.8%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume36%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Most analysed peers have an upward wave count. That agrees with this report’s upward interpretation.

52% constructive

12 of 23 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

9% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^STIMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks15036%-1.0%-1.3%-5.3% to 6.1%
13 weeks8836%-1.5%-2.2%-9.8% to 13.2%
26 weeks7141%-1.6%-5.1%-11.6% to 30.7%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +3.6% across 38 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

38 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
3.6%
13w
10.1%
26w
33.2%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 38 63% 3.6% -10.0% to 54.4%
13 weeks 38 74% 10.1% -18.8% to 56.8%
26 weeks 32 78% 33.2% -18.1% to 63.2%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-18 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 7.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2024-03-29 Confirmed Low 0.0548 -16.2% 7 weeks
2024-05-24 Confirmed High 0.0759 38.6% 8 weeks
2024-05-31 Confirmed Low 0.0701 -7.6% 1 weeks
2024-06-07 Confirmed High 0.0807 15.1% 1 weeks
2024-07-12 Confirmed Low 0.0653 -19.0% 5 weeks
2025-03-21 Confirmed High 0.103 57.6% 36 weeks
2025-04-18 Confirmed Low 0.0892 -13.3% 4 weeks
2025-09-12 Confirmed High 0.152 70.3% 21 weeks
2025-11-21 Confirmed Low 0.124 -18.4% 10 weeks
2026-02-27 Confirmed High 0.22 77.4% 14 weeks
2026-07-03 Confirmed Low 0.183 -16.8% 18 weeks
2026-09-18 Forming High 0.205 12.0% 11 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context