HEL · Industrials · Weekly analysis

KHG Elliott Wave report

KH Group Oyj

Latest close EUR 0.914 Week ending 18 Sep 2026 History 202 weeks
Current reading

No clear wave pattern yet

There is no leading pattern that meets the wave rules. Use the trend and other readings for context while more swings develop.

95/100 Setup score 92/100 Data quality Observing Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countHurst rising stack

No wave count meets the rules yet. The chart still shows price, trend and confirmed swings.

Other readingsUse the other readings for context

7 of 7 available readings are positive and 0 are negative. There is no leading wave direction to compare them with.

Main uncertaintyModerate count stability

Wait for a pattern that meets the wave rules. A label should not be forced onto every price move.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in EUR · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-09-290.860.99471.06
2023-10-060.8090.98741.06
2023-10-130.7990.98131.05
2023-10-200.7740.97461.04
2023-10-270.7680.96621.04
2023-11-030.7930.9581.03
2023-11-100.7680.94971.03
2023-11-170.7590.9421.02
2023-11-240.7610.93431.02
2023-12-010.7610.92481.01
2023-12-080.7580.91311.01
2023-12-150.7610.90291.01
2023-12-220.760.89411.00
2023-12-290.8150.88650.9987
2024-01-050.8090.8790.9956
2024-01-120.7990.87070.9924
2024-01-190.7730.86190.989
2024-01-260.7760.85240.9856
2024-02-020.7610.84210.9822
2024-02-090.7460.83250.9786
2024-02-160.730.82260.9749
2024-02-230.7320.81310.9713
2024-03-010.7190.80340.9677
2024-03-080.6840.79220.9636
2024-03-150.6820.78430.9596
2024-03-220.8340.78230.9579
2024-03-290.8350.78050.9562
2024-04-050.830.77930.9545
2024-04-120.8280.77810.9528
2024-04-190.7940.77590.9507
2024-04-260.7940.77370.9487
2024-05-030.6740.76920.9452
2024-05-100.5640.76140.9403
2024-05-170.540.75360.9353
2024-05-240.5360.74590.9304
2024-05-310.530.73710.9255
2024-06-070.640.73280.9221
2024-06-140.640.72890.9187
2024-06-210.6360.72470.9154
2024-06-280.6260.72020.912
2024-07-050.6320.7160.9088
2024-07-120.6280.71160.9056
2024-07-190.6460.70780.9027
2024-07-260.6180.70120.8995
2024-08-020.6240.6950.8965
2024-08-090.5840.68790.8931
2024-08-160.570.68110.8896
2024-08-230.5860.67480.8864
2024-08-300.6280.67030.8837
2024-09-060.620.66610.8809
2024-09-130.630.66280.8784
2024-09-200.610.65870.8756
2024-09-270.620.65540.873
2024-10-040.6260.65350.8706
2024-10-110.6020.65080.8679
2024-10-180.5860.64260.8651
2024-10-250.570.63370.8623
2024-11-010.6020.62610.8598
2024-11-080.5760.61770.8571
2024-11-150.5740.61040.8544
2024-11-220.5480.60220.8515
2024-11-290.5340.59750.8486
2024-12-060.570.59770.846
2024-12-130.5380.59770.8432
2024-12-200.5340.59760.8405
2024-12-270.5360.59780.8377
2025-01-030.5360.59430.8351
2025-01-100.5260.59050.8324
2025-01-170.4980.58590.8295
2025-01-240.4990.58170.8266
2025-01-310.500.57730.8238
2025-02-070.5160.57360.8212
2025-02-140.5080.5690.8186
2025-02-210.5060.56520.816
2025-02-280.4990.56110.8133
2025-03-070.4850.55780.8107
2025-03-140.5580.55740.8086
2025-03-210.5480.55610.8065
2025-03-280.5560.55370.8045
2025-04-040.510.550.8022
2025-04-110.5180.54630.7999
2025-04-180.5240.54340.7978
2025-04-250.530.54040.7957
2025-05-020.550.53790.7938
2025-05-090.5340.53560.7918
2025-05-160.540.53410.7899
2025-05-230.5260.53260.7879
2025-05-300.5440.53070.7861
2025-06-060.530.52920.7842
2025-06-130.5320.52780.7824
2025-06-200.5440.52760.7806
2025-06-270.550.52820.7789
2025-07-040.5340.5270.7772
2025-07-110.540.5270.7755
2025-07-180.540.52720.7738
2025-07-250.5260.52690.7721
2025-08-010.5280.52660.7704
2025-08-080.5220.52650.7686
2025-08-150.5080.52680.7668
2025-08-220.540.52820.7653
2025-08-290.5420.52960.7638
2025-09-050.5360.53030.7622
2025-09-120.500.530.7605
2025-09-190.4930.52960.7587
2025-09-260.4550.52810.7567
2025-10-030.4440.52670.7546
2025-10-100.430.52250.7525
2025-10-170.4260.51840.7504
2025-10-240.460.51520.7485
2025-10-310.4550.51340.7466
2025-11-070.4290.51040.7417
2025-11-140.4160.50680.7366
2025-11-210.4270.50340.7316
2025-11-280.4230.49910.7266
2025-12-050.4180.49530.7222
2025-12-120.4070.49080.7172
2025-12-190.3950.48650.7121
2025-12-260.4150.48220.7072
2026-01-020.450.47950.7025
2026-01-090.4650.47730.698
2026-01-160.4670.47470.6934
2026-01-230.4690.4720.6887
2026-01-300.4680.46980.6841
2026-02-060.5880.47140.6803
2026-02-130.560.47210.6763
2026-02-200.5720.47360.6725
2026-02-270.5560.47450.6692
2026-03-060.5280.47470.666
2026-03-130.5480.47610.6632
2026-03-200.550.47640.6605
2026-03-270.5260.47590.6574
2026-04-030.5360.47590.6541
2026-04-100.5560.47770.6512
2026-04-170.5640.48010.6485
2026-04-240.5820.48430.6458
2026-05-010.570.48850.6428
2026-05-080.5220.49160.639
2026-05-150.520.49470.6355
2026-05-220.530.49710.6323
2026-05-290.5120.4990.6289
2026-06-050.5160.50190.6256
2026-06-120.520.50530.6222
2026-06-190.520.50840.6189
2026-06-260.5180.51160.6154
2026-07-030.530.51530.612
2026-07-100.530.51940.6087
2026-07-170.5380.52420.6056
2026-07-240.5320.52810.6025
2026-07-310.550.53140.5995
2026-08-070.5660.53480.5966
2026-08-140.640.54060.5949
2026-08-210.7520.550.5939
2026-08-280.8760.56360.5939
2026-09-040.8280.57160.5936
2026-09-110.8620.58170.5936
2026-09-180.9140.59310.594
4-week return 21.5%
13-week return 75.8%
26-week return 66.2%
52-week return 85.4%
From 52-week high 0.0%
26-week volatility 42.0%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 8.2% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

No leading count meets the wave rules yet.

Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

No valid count

There is no leading pattern to test yet. Use the other readings and wait for more price swings.

Strategic degreeNo valid count

Strategic degree uses a 13.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreeNo valid count

Primary degree uses a 8.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreeNo valid count

Tactical degree uses a 5.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 78.5%

16 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.512

Pivot from 2026-05-29

Nearest confirmed resistance -

Price is above prior confirmed highs

30-week trend 0.5931

Price is 54.1% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.594

Price is 53.9% from Fair Value

52-week range position 100%

0.391 low · 0.914 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

7 of 7 available readings are positive and 0 are negative. There is no leading wave direction to compare them with.

100% directional agreement

Use the other readings for context.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

54.1% above trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Rising
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are improving together.

Rising Stack
Relative strength

Outperforming its benchmark

+55.8
Market activity

Participation is supportive

+81.5
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+1.2
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+59.8
Balance of readings Constructive

7 constructive, 0 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Outperforming its benchmark.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is positive.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is rising. That supports the recent upswing, but it does not establish how long it will last.

Cycle repeat scores range from 7 to 69/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseRising

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementRising Stack

100/100 constructive · 0/100 risk

Estimated next low17 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high4 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 11w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score7/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough15w
Possible next low5–9w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 25w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score25/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough8w
Possible next low11–23w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 30w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score44/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough8w
Possible next low11–33w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 72w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score69/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough36w
Possible next low27–45w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 24.8% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 0.0% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Trend extension

    Price is 54.1% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.

  • Range position

    Price is 100% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.

  • Count instability

    The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability.

Downside risk check

Watch

40/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension20/20
Range position15/15
Cycle rollover0/15
Multi-cycle risk0/15
Count instability5/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.391
52-week high0.914
Annualised volatility42.0%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range5.2%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-24.8%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume158%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

45% constructive

10 of 22 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

32% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^OMXH25Middle 80% of returns
4 weeks57353%0.6%0.2%-8.7% to 12.0%
13 weeks21857%1.4%0.8%-16.0% to 22.1%
26 weeks12660%2.8%-0.6%-22.8% to 40.8%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was -2.7% across 16 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

17 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
-2.7%
13w
-5.5%
26w
31.5%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 16 38% -2.7% -10.2% to 59.3%
13 weeks 13 8% -5.5% -20.4% to 8.4%
26 weeks 7 71% 31.5% -13.9% to 57.6%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality92/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
78/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-18 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 8.2% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2024-05-31 Confirmed Low 0.53 -36.5% 9 weeks
2024-07-19 Confirmed High 0.646 21.9% 7 weeks
2024-08-16 Confirmed Low 0.57 -11.8% 4 weeks
2024-09-13 Confirmed High 0.63 10.5% 4 weeks
2025-03-07 Confirmed Low 0.485 -23.0% 25 weeks
2025-03-14 Confirmed High 0.558 15.1% 1 weeks
2025-12-19 Confirmed Low 0.395 -29.2% 40 weeks
2026-02-06 Confirmed High 0.588 48.9% 7 weeks
2026-03-27 Confirmed Low 0.526 -10.5% 7 weeks
2026-04-24 Confirmed High 0.582 10.6% 4 weeks
2026-05-29 Confirmed Low 0.512 -12.0% 5 weeks
2026-09-18 Forming High 0.914 78.5% 16 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context