ASX · Energy · Weekly analysis

TER Elliott Wave report

TerraCom Limited

Latest close AUD 0.075 Week ending 11 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

The wave count points to an advance

The selected pattern describes a move upward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

92/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Triggered Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countWave + Hurst trough confluence

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings support this direction

5 of 7 available readings support the upward wave interpretation; 2 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

Main uncertaintyLow count stability

The leading count changed 4 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in AUD · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-09-220.44030.46160.3181
2023-09-290.42590.45610.3202
2023-10-060.38290.45180.322
2023-10-130.40680.44920.324
2023-10-200.41640.44740.3262
2023-10-270.40680.44190.3281
2023-11-030.3350.43410.3297
2023-11-100.30150.42540.331
2023-11-170.30150.41820.3324
2023-11-240.29670.40990.3337
2023-12-010.32070.40380.3351
2023-12-080.37810.39810.3368
2023-12-150.37330.39320.3385
2023-12-220.36850.3910.3402
2023-12-290.4020.39090.3421
2024-01-050.39720.38990.344
2024-01-120.4020.38930.3459
2024-01-190.38290.38950.3478
2024-01-260.36370.3890.3495
2024-02-020.28720.38430.3507
2024-02-090.25370.37950.3517
2024-02-160.25840.37560.3528
2024-02-230.25370.37140.3539
2024-03-010.23450.36680.3551
2024-03-080.22490.3610.3562
2024-03-150.22970.35540.3573
2024-03-220.23450.34890.3585
2024-03-290.22970.34130.3596
2024-04-050.22970.33310.3607
2024-04-120.24410.32610.3619
2024-04-190.23930.31940.363
2024-04-260.25840.31380.3643
2024-05-030.22970.30870.3654
2024-05-100.22490.30260.3663
2024-05-170.22490.29620.3673
2024-05-240.21060.28970.3681
2024-05-310.2010.28520.3689
2024-06-070.21060.28220.3697
2024-06-140.2010.27890.3706
2024-06-210.21540.27610.3715
2024-06-280.21060.27250.3724
2024-07-050.21540.26710.3732
2024-07-120.21060.26160.374
2024-07-190.19620.25590.3747
2024-07-260.19140.24890.3754
2024-08-020.19140.2420.3761
2024-08-090.17710.23450.3766
2024-08-160.18190.22780.3771
2024-08-230.17710.22160.3775
2024-08-300.18190.21810.3781
2024-09-060.17230.21540.3785
2024-09-130.15790.2120.3789
2024-09-200.16750.20910.3793
2024-09-270.17710.20720.3797
2024-10-040.19140.20610.3804
2024-10-110.2010.20520.3809
2024-10-180.19620.20390.3814
2024-10-250.18660.20240.3818
2024-11-010.19140.20120.3822
2024-11-080.21540.20020.3828
2024-11-150.21540.19940.3835
2024-11-220.200.19750.384
2024-11-290.1950.19630.3846
2024-12-060.190.19510.385
2024-12-130.1850.19380.3855
2024-12-200.170.19250.3858
2024-12-270.190.19210.3863
2025-01-030.1950.19160.3868
2025-01-100.190.19120.3873
2025-01-170.190.19040.3877
2025-01-240.1850.18950.3881
2025-01-310.170.1880.3883
2025-02-070.1750.18680.3883
2025-02-140.160.18560.3881
2025-02-210.1450.18410.3877
2025-02-280.120.18170.3868
2025-03-070.110.17940.3858
2025-03-140.1050.17690.3846
2025-03-210.0880.17390.3832
2025-03-280.0820.17060.3818
2025-04-040.0680.16710.3801
2025-04-110.070.16420.3781
2025-04-180.0680.16090.3761
2025-04-250.0640.15710.3742
2025-05-020.060.15270.3723
2025-05-090.0580.14790.3703
2025-05-160.060.14340.3679
2025-05-230.0580.13910.3652
2025-05-300.0630.13480.3622
2025-06-060.060.12960.3593
2025-06-130.0580.12440.3568
2025-06-200.0720.12010.355
2025-06-270.0780.11620.3531
2025-07-040.0820.11260.3512
2025-07-110.0830.10920.3488
2025-07-180.0770.10610.3461
2025-07-250.0910.10280.3434
2025-08-010.0790.0990.3407
2025-08-080.0740.09510.3378
2025-08-150.0780.09140.3344
2025-08-220.070.08750.3303
2025-08-290.0730.08430.3267
2025-09-050.0660.08070.3227
2025-09-120.0640.07750.3184
2025-09-190.0660.07480.3141
2025-09-260.0680.07310.31
2025-10-030.0680.07170.3054
2025-10-100.0670.07040.3011
2025-10-170.0820.07020.2971
2025-10-240.0840.07030.2934
2025-10-310.0940.07120.2899
2025-11-070.0850.07170.2872
2025-11-140.0860.07230.2838
2025-11-210.0850.0730.2805
2025-11-280.0870.07390.2768
2025-12-050.100.07530.2732
2025-12-120.0970.07650.2694
2025-12-190.0910.07760.2651
2025-12-260.06220.07760.2609
2026-01-020.0660.07780.2565
2026-01-090.0640.0780.2521
2026-01-160.0610.07760.2474
2026-01-230.0650.07720.2435
2026-01-300.0650.07660.2399
2026-02-060.0670.07610.2366
2026-02-130.0690.07580.2333
2026-02-200.0680.0750.23
2026-02-270.0660.07460.2266
2026-03-060.0890.07510.2239
2026-03-130.0950.07570.2214
2026-03-200.110.0770.2191
2026-03-270.100.07790.2161
2026-04-030.0920.07880.213
2026-04-100.0870.07950.21
2026-04-170.0830.08010.2072
2026-04-240.0750.08030.2042
2026-05-010.0690.08040.2014
2026-05-080.0730.08060.1983
2026-05-150.070.08020.1954
2026-05-220.0670.07960.1931
2026-05-290.070.07880.1909
2026-06-050.0820.07870.1887
2026-06-120.0850.07870.1866
2026-06-190.070.07820.1846
2026-06-260.0630.07740.1826
2026-07-030.0660.07620.1803
2026-07-100.070.07530.1782
2026-07-170.0660.07450.1762
2026-07-240.0690.07470.1742
2026-07-310.0640.07470.1722
2026-08-070.0640.07470.1701
2026-08-140.0630.07470.1679
2026-08-210.0730.0750.1656
2026-08-280.0790.07550.1632
2026-09-040.0770.07580.1607
2026-09-110.0750.0760.1582
4-week return 19.0%
13-week return -11.8%
26-week return -21.1%
52-week return 17.2%
From 52-week high -40.0%
26-week volatility 61.7%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 16.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible Wave 2 troughPrimary swing size · Leading28%
A/B/C reset may be completingPrimary swing size28%
Possible bearish Wave 2 crestTactical swing size43%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Possible Wave 2 trough

28% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm above 0.079 Fails below 0.063 Count stability Low · 36/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 0.063; Wave 2 0.075.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 25% of Wave 1.
Strategic degreePossible Wave 2 trough

Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible Wave 2 trough

Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing -5.1%

2 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.063

Pivot from 2026-08-14

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.079

Pivot from 2026-08-28

30-week trend 0.076

Price is -1.3% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.1582

Price is -52.6% from Fair Value

52-week range position 24%

0.059 low · 0.125 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

5 of 7 available readings support the upward wave interpretation; 2 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

71% directional agreement

The other readings support this direction. 5 readings support the selected direction; 2 lean against it.

Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

1.3% below trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Rising
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are improving together.

Rising Stack
Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-0.9
Market activity

Participation is supportive

+2.1
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+0.7
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+8.7
Balance of readings Constructive

5 constructive, 2 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive. This supports the upward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark. This challenges the upward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is positive. This supports the upward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive. This supports the upward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is rising. That supports the recent upswing, but it does not establish how long it will last.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 0/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseRising

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementRising Stack

100/100 constructive · 0/100 risk

Estimated next low5 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high14 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 12w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough4w
Possible next low5–11w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough10w
Possible next low1–9w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 50w
Current phaseTroughing
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough3w
Possible next low36–58w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 80w
Current phaseTroughing
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough64w
Possible next low0–32w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 90.6% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 40.0% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Count instability

    The primary interpretation has low recent stability.

Downside risk check

Contained

6/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover0/15
Multi-cycle risk0/15
Count instability6/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.059
52-week high0.125
Annualised volatility61.7%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range7.4%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-90.6%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume207%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

42% constructive

10 of 24 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

54% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Check the upcoming earnings date

Earnings: 2026-10-27 · about 7w away

Options: Volatility · 52/100 conviction · ±10.5% expected move

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^AXJOMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks22949%0.0%-0.4%-12.6% to 15.3%
13 weeks11649%0.0%-1.8%-18.2% to 23.2%
26 weeks9357%5.0%-0.9%-23.9% to 33.9%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was -7.5% across 49 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

49 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
-7.5%
13w
-12.8%
26w
-23.1%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 49 29% -7.5% -36.9% to 17.7%
13 weeks 49 22% -12.8% -65.4% to 51.5%
26 weeks 49 4% -23.1% -73.1% to 34.9%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-11 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 16.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2024-11-15 Confirmed High 0.2154 36.4% 9 weeks
2025-06-13 Confirmed Low 0.058 -73.1% 30 weeks
2025-07-25 Confirmed High 0.091 56.9% 6 weeks
2025-09-12 Confirmed Low 0.064 -29.7% 7 weeks
2025-12-05 Confirmed High 0.10 56.3% 12 weeks
2026-01-16 Confirmed Low 0.061 -39.0% 6 weeks
2026-03-20 Confirmed High 0.11 80.3% 9 weeks
2026-05-22 Confirmed Low 0.067 -39.1% 9 weeks
2026-06-12 Confirmed High 0.085 26.9% 3 weeks
2026-08-14 Confirmed Low 0.063 -25.9% 9 weeks
2026-08-28 Confirmed High 0.079 25.4% 2 weeks
2026-09-11 Forming Low 0.075 -5.1% 2 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context