ASX · Basic Materials · Weekly analysis

CXU Elliott Wave report

Cauldron Energy Limited

Latest close AUD 0.12 Week ending 11 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

The wave count points to a decline

The selected pattern describes a move downward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

60/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Triggered Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countPossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings point the other way

5 of 7 available readings lean against the downward wave interpretation; 2 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

Main uncertaintyLow count stability

The leading count changed 7 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in AUD · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-09-220.0098570.0068830.0207
2023-09-290.01280.0071130.0205
2023-10-060.0098570.0072120.0204
2023-10-130.0090.0072820.0202
2023-10-200.00850.0073020.02
2023-10-270.0090.0073720.0198
2023-11-030.010.0074760.0195
2023-11-100.0130.0076790.0193
2023-11-170.0160.0079820.0192
2023-11-240.0190.0083860.0191
2023-12-010.0160.0086890.019
2023-12-080.0150.0089920.0189
2023-12-150.0250.0096280.0188
2023-12-220.0240.01020.0187
2023-12-290.0240.01080.0186
2024-01-050.0310.01160.0185
2024-01-120.0370.01260.0185
2024-01-190.0460.01390.0185
2024-01-260.0380.0150.0184
2024-02-020.0420.01620.0184
2024-02-090.0490.01760.0185
2024-02-160.0480.0190.0186
2024-02-230.0360.020.0186
2024-03-010.0350.02090.0186
2024-03-080.0410.0220.0187
2024-03-150.0390.02320.0187
2024-03-220.0380.02420.0187
2024-03-290.0390.02530.0187
2024-04-050.0430.02650.0187
2024-04-120.0480.02770.0187
2024-04-190.0370.02860.0188
2024-04-260.040.02950.0188
2024-05-030.0380.03040.0188
2024-05-100.0410.03150.0188
2024-05-170.040.03260.0188
2024-05-240.0370.03350.0188
2024-05-310.040.03450.0188
2024-06-070.0320.03510.0188
2024-06-140.0270.03550.0187
2024-06-210.0230.03560.0186
2024-06-280.0240.03590.0186
2024-07-050.0250.03620.0185
2024-07-120.0250.03620.0185
2024-07-190.0260.03630.0184
2024-07-260.0270.03640.0184
2024-08-020.0210.03610.0184
2024-08-090.020.03550.0183
2024-08-160.0170.03450.0182
2024-08-230.0180.03390.0182
2024-08-300.0160.0330.018
2024-09-060.0150.03190.0179
2024-09-130.0220.0310.0178
2024-09-200.020.03050.0177
2024-09-270.02260.03010.0176
2024-10-040.0180.02930.0176
2024-10-110.0180.02860.0175
2024-10-180.0180.02790.0175
2024-10-250.0140.02710.0174
2024-11-010.0140.02610.0173
2024-11-080.0150.0250.0172
2024-11-150.0150.02430.0172
2024-11-220.0150.02350.0171
2024-11-290.0160.02270.017
2024-12-060.0150.02190.017
2024-12-130.01350.0210.0169
2024-12-200.0110.02010.0168
2024-12-270.0130.01920.0167
2025-01-030.0150.01860.0166
2025-01-100.0130.01820.0166
2025-01-170.0130.01780.0165
2025-01-240.0120.01740.0164
2025-01-310.0120.0170.0164
2025-02-070.0110.01650.0163
2025-02-140.0110.0160.0162
2025-02-210.0110.01550.0162
2025-02-280.010.01510.0161
2025-03-070.0090.01480.0161
2025-03-140.010.01450.016
2025-03-210.010.01430.016
2025-03-280.0090.0140.016
2025-04-040.010.01390.0159
2025-04-110.0080.01340.0159
2025-04-180.0080.0130.0158
2025-04-250.0080.01250.0158
2025-05-020.0090.01220.0157
2025-05-090.0080.01190.0157
2025-05-160.0080.01160.0157
2025-05-230.0087660.01140.0156
2025-05-300.0080.01120.0156
2025-06-060.0070.01090.0156
2025-06-130.0070.01060.0156
2025-06-200.0090.01040.0156
2025-06-270.0070.01010.0156
2025-07-040.010.0099760.0156
2025-07-110.0090.0098260.0156
2025-07-180.010.0097920.0156
2025-07-250.010.0096920.0156
2025-08-010.0080.0094590.0156
2025-08-080.0080.0092920.0156
2025-08-150.0080.0091260.0156
2025-08-220.0080.0089920.0156
2025-08-290.0080.0088590.0156
2025-09-050.0090.0087920.0156
2025-09-120.0110.0087920.0156
2025-09-190.0130.0088590.0156
2025-09-260.0190.0091590.0156
2025-10-030.0220.0095920.0157
2025-10-100.0210.0099590.0157
2025-10-170.0230.01040.0158
2025-10-240.0190.01070.0159
2025-10-310.0210.01110.016
2025-11-070.0170.01140.016
2025-11-140.0190.01180.0161
2025-11-210.0220.01220.0161
2025-11-280.0180.01250.0162
2025-12-050.0220.0130.0163
2025-12-120.020.01340.0164
2025-12-190.020.01380.0165
2025-12-260.0220.01420.0166
2026-01-020.0230.01480.0167
2026-01-090.0260.01540.0168
2026-01-160.0270.0160.0169
2026-01-230.0350.01690.0171
2026-01-300.0350.01780.0173
2026-02-060.0280.01840.0174
2026-02-130.0290.0190.0175
2026-02-200.0280.01960.0177
2026-02-270.0320.02040.0178
2026-03-060.0290.02110.018
2026-03-130.0260.02170.0181
2026-03-200.0230.02220.0182
2026-03-270.0240.02280.0183
2026-04-030.0430.02390.0185
2026-04-100.0620.02560.0189
2026-04-170.0560.0270.0192
2026-04-240.0520.02810.0195
2026-05-010.0690.02970.0199
2026-05-080.060.0310.0202
2026-05-150.0550.03210.0206
2026-05-220.0440.03290.0208
2026-05-290.0510.03390.0211
2026-06-050.0570.03520.0214
2026-06-120.0580.03650.0217
2026-06-190.120.03980.0225
2026-06-260.0960.04240.023
2026-07-030.1050.04520.0237
2026-07-100.1150.04830.0244
2026-07-170.1250.05180.0251
2026-07-240.150.05610.026
2026-07-310.1250.05950.0268
2026-08-070.0890.06160.0273
2026-08-140.0980.0640.0279
2026-08-210.0850.06560.0284
2026-08-280.110.06810.0291
2026-09-040.100.07050.0297
2026-09-110.120.07360.0304
4-week return 22.4%
13-week return 106.9%
26-week return 361.5%
52-week return 990.9%
From 52-week high -25.0%
26-week volatility 216.8%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 16.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 2 crestPrimary swing size · Leading6%
Five-wave advance matureStrategic swing size88%
Possible bearish Wave 2 crestStrategic swing size6%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Possible bearish Wave 2 crest

6% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 0.085 Fails above 0.15 Count stability Low · 0/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 0.15; Wave 2 0.12.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 54% of Wave 1.
Strategic degreeFive-wave advance mature

Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 41.2%

3 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.085

Pivot from 2026-08-21

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.15

Pivot from 2026-07-24

30-week trend 0.0736

Price is 63.1% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.0304

Price is 295.0% from Fair Value

52-week range position 73%

0.011 low · 0.16 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

5 of 7 available readings lean against the downward wave interpretation; 2 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

71% directional agreement

The other readings point the other way. 2 readings support the selected direction; 5 lean against it.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

63.1% above trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is not rising.

Cresting
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are improving together.

Rising Stack
Relative strength

Outperforming its benchmark

+133.2
Market activity

Participation is supportive

+25.2
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-0.2
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+313.8
Balance of readings Constructive

5 constructive, 2 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Outperforming its benchmark. This challenges the downward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is positive. This challenges the downward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is weak. This supports the downward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is near a high and starting to turn. Watch whether price and momentum also weaken.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 63/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseCresting

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementRising Stack

75/100 constructive · 25/100 risk

Estimated next low6 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high9 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 11w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score39/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough3w
Possible next low6–10w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score36/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough1w
Possible next low11–17w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 30w
Current phaseCresting
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough24w
Possible next low0–12w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 100w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score63/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough53w
Possible next low36–58w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 20.0% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 25.0% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Trend extension

    Price is 63.1% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.

  • Cycle rollover

    Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.

  • Count instability

    The primary interpretation has low recent stability.

Downside risk check

Watch

49/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension20/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover15/15
Multi-cycle risk4/15
Count instability10/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.011
52-week high0.16
Annualised volatility216.8%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range16.1%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-20.0%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume76%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Most analysed peers have an upward wave count. That contrasts with this report’s downward interpretation.

73% constructive

16 of 22 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

32% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^AXJOMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks70053%0.9%0.8%-11.5% to 14.1%
13 weeks26057%3.0%2.8%-16.7% to 28.7%
26 weeks13865%7.4%6.6%-22.0% to 46.1%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +8.1% across 43 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

44 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
8.1%
13w
27.3%
26w
-42.8%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 43 67% 8.1% -40.0% to 172.7%
13 weeks 41 61% 27.3% -60.0% to 421.7%
26 weeks 34 47% -42.8% -65.0% to 500.0%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-11 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 16.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2025-11-28 Confirmed Low 0.018 -18.2% 1 weeks
2026-01-30 Confirmed High 0.035 94.4% 9 weeks
2026-03-20 Confirmed Low 0.023 -34.3% 7 weeks
2026-04-10 Confirmed High 0.062 169.6% 3 weeks
2026-04-24 Confirmed Low 0.052 -16.1% 2 weeks
2026-05-01 Confirmed High 0.069 32.7% 1 weeks
2026-05-22 Confirmed Low 0.044 -36.2% 3 weeks
2026-06-19 Confirmed High 0.12 172.7% 4 weeks
2026-06-26 Confirmed Low 0.096 -20.0% 1 weeks
2026-07-24 Confirmed High 0.15 56.2% 4 weeks
2026-08-21 Confirmed Low 0.085 -43.3% 4 weeks
2026-09-11 Forming High 0.12 41.2% 3 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context