ASX · Healthcare · Weekly analysis

AHC Elliott Wave report

Austco Healthcare Limited

Latest close AUD 0.27 Week ending 11 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

The wave count points to a decline

The selected pattern describes a move downward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

70/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Setup in timing window Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countPossible bearish Wave 4 crest

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings support this direction

4 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 3 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

Main uncertaintyModerate count stability

The leading count changed 2 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in AUD · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-09-220.190.15180.1214
2023-09-290.190.15390.1219
2023-10-060.180.15590.1225
2023-10-130.190.15810.1232
2023-10-200.170.15970.1237
2023-10-270.1750.16130.1242
2023-11-030.1850.16320.1248
2023-11-100.190.16520.1255
2023-11-170.18750.16710.1261
2023-11-240.200.16920.1268
2023-12-010.190.17110.1274
2023-12-080.190.17310.1281
2023-12-150.190.17560.1287
2023-12-220.1950.17760.1293
2023-12-290.200.17960.1299
2024-01-050.180.18090.1304
2024-01-120.180.18110.131
2024-01-190.1850.18140.1316
2024-01-260.190.18210.1321
2024-02-020.1950.18290.1327
2024-02-090.200.18390.1333
2024-02-160.200.18480.134
2024-02-230.220.18620.1349
2024-03-010.1850.18680.1355
2024-03-080.1950.18740.1361
2024-03-150.190.18790.1368
2024-03-220.190.18860.1374
2024-03-290.1850.18890.138
2024-04-050.1950.18980.1387
2024-04-120.190.19010.1393
2024-04-190.1950.19020.14
2024-04-260.19460.19040.1407
2024-05-030.1850.19060.1413
2024-05-100.1850.19040.1418
2024-05-170.1850.19090.1424
2024-05-240.1950.19160.143
2024-05-310.180.19140.1435
2024-06-070.190.19140.144
2024-06-140.180.19120.1445
2024-06-210.18750.19070.1449
2024-06-280.180.19040.1453
2024-07-050.190.19040.1456
2024-07-120.2150.19120.1461
2024-07-190.2150.19190.1465
2024-07-260.2150.19240.1469
2024-08-020.210.19340.1474
2024-08-090.220.19470.1478
2024-08-160.2150.19570.1484
2024-08-230.210.19640.1488
2024-08-300.2150.19710.1493
2024-09-060.220.19770.1498
2024-09-130.220.19840.1503
2024-09-200.2550.19960.151
2024-09-270.2450.20160.1517
2024-10-040.2650.20390.1526
2024-10-110.2450.20570.1533
2024-10-180.240.20740.1539
2024-10-250.24250.20930.1546
2024-11-010.260.21150.1554
2024-11-080.2550.21370.1562
2024-11-150.25250.21560.1569
2024-11-220.23750.2170.1576
2024-11-290.250.21920.1584
2024-12-060.2450.22120.1591
2024-12-130.2450.22320.1599
2024-12-200.270.22570.1607
2024-12-270.2750.22880.1615
2025-01-030.300.23250.1625
2025-01-100.320.23720.1637
2025-01-170.320.24160.1649
2025-01-240.320.24620.1661
2025-01-310.310.25020.1673
2025-02-070.320.25380.1685
2025-02-140.330.25760.1698
2025-02-210.320.26110.1711
2025-02-280.2850.26360.1721
2025-03-070.2750.26540.173
2025-03-140.260.26690.1739
2025-03-210.3050.27010.1751
2025-03-280.300.27290.1762
2025-04-040.260.27420.1771
2025-04-110.280.27620.1781
2025-04-180.280.27710.1791
2025-04-250.280.27820.1802
2025-05-020.2750.27860.1813
2025-05-090.290.28010.1825
2025-05-160.290.28180.1838
2025-05-230.2950.28350.1851
2025-05-300.300.28480.1864
2025-06-060.3050.28650.1878
2025-06-130.2950.28790.1891
2025-06-200.290.28970.1904
2025-06-270.3050.29150.1916
2025-07-040.300.29330.1928
2025-07-110.350.29680.1943
2025-07-180.350.29950.1959
2025-07-250.380.3030.1976
2025-08-010.3850.30580.1993
2025-08-080.3750.30770.201
2025-08-150.370.30930.2027
2025-08-220.370.3110.2044
2025-08-290.3450.31220.2059
2025-09-050.3450.3130.2073
2025-09-120.3650.31420.2089
2025-09-190.3650.31570.2104
2025-09-260.3650.31830.212
2025-10-030.380.32180.2137
2025-10-100.410.32680.2156
2025-10-170.4050.33020.2174
2025-10-240.4250.33430.2194
2025-10-310.4350.34020.2215
2025-11-070.4350.34530.2236
2025-11-140.4350.35050.2257
2025-11-210.3950.35430.2275
2025-11-280.420.35920.2295
2025-12-050.3950.36270.2312
2025-12-120.390.3660.2329
2025-12-190.390.36920.2347
2025-12-260.3850.3720.2364
2026-01-020.4050.37530.2383
2026-01-090.400.37880.24
2026-01-160.380.38180.2417
2026-01-230.3650.38380.2433
2026-01-300.3750.38630.2449
2026-02-060.350.38630.2464
2026-02-130.3150.38520.2477
2026-02-200.390.38550.2494
2026-02-270.3650.38480.2509
2026-03-060.340.38370.2523
2026-03-130.3850.38420.254
2026-03-200.350.38350.2555
2026-03-270.34250.38340.2569
2026-04-030.3350.38310.2582
2026-04-100.3450.38240.2595
2026-04-170.3450.38180.2609
2026-04-240.330.38060.2622
2026-05-010.3350.37910.2635
2026-05-080.3250.37620.2647
2026-05-150.3350.37390.2661
2026-05-220.3350.37090.2674
2026-05-290.3050.36660.2685
2026-06-050.2250.35960.269
2026-06-120.2250.35260.2693
2026-06-190.230.34710.2697
2026-06-260.230.34080.2701
2026-07-030.250.33590.2706
2026-07-100.2450.33110.2711
2026-07-170.240.32610.2715
2026-07-240.2250.32080.2718
2026-07-310.2250.31480.2721
2026-08-070.2250.30890.2725
2026-08-140.230.30390.2728
2026-08-210.2250.29920.2732
2026-08-280.2450.29490.2736
2026-09-040.270.29220.2743
2026-09-110.270.29080.2748
4-week return 17.4%
13-week return 20.0%
26-week return -29.9%
52-week return -26.0%
From 52-week high -39.3%
26-week volatility 48.9%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 9.6% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 4 crestStrategic swing size · Leading94%
Possible bearish Wave 2 crestStrategic swing size6%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Possible bearish Wave 4 crest

94% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 0.225 Fails above 0.39 Count stability Moderate · 68/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 0.435; Wave 2 0.39.
PassWave 3 exceeds Wave 1Wave 1 0.315; Wave 3 0.225.
PassWave 4 does not overlap Wave 1Wave 1 boundary 0.315; Wave 4 0.27.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 63% of Wave 1.
GuidelineWave 3 extension is plausibleWave 3 is 1.38× Wave 1.
GuidelineWave 4 retracement is proportionateRetraced 27% of Wave 3.
GuidelineWaves 2 and 4 show temporal alternationWave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 3w.
Strategic degreePossible bearish Wave 4 crest

Strategic degree uses a 15.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreeNo valid count

Primary degree uses a 9.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreeNo valid count

Tactical degree uses a 6.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 20.0%

3 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.225

Pivot from 2026-08-21

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.385

Pivot from 2026-03-13

30-week trend 0.2908

Price is -7.1% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.2748

Price is -1.8% from Fair Value

52-week range position 24%

0.215 low · 0.445 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

4 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 3 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

57% directional agreement

The other readings support this direction. 4 readings support the selected direction; 3 lean against it.

Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

7.1% below trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Troughing
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are improving together.

Rising Stack
Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-18.5
Market activity

Participation is weak

-27.5
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+0.3
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-14.3
Balance of readings Defensive

3 constructive, 4 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is weak. This supports the downward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark. This supports the downward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is negative. This supports the downward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is near a low and starting to turn. Look for price to confirm an upswing.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 28/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseTroughing

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementRising Stack

75/100 constructive · 25/100 risk

Estimated next low4 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high7 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 11w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score10/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough11w
Possible next low6–16w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score28/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough11w
Possible next low0–8w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 50w
Current phaseTroughing
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough2w
Possible next low38–58w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 100w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough61w
Possible next low20–58w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 37.9% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 39.3% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 25/100.

  • Count instability

    The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability.

Downside risk check

Contained

7/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover0/15
Multi-cycle risk4/15
Count instability3/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.215
52-week high0.445
Annualised volatility48.9%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range6.3%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-37.9%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume46%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Most analysed peers have an upward wave count. That contrasts with this report’s downward interpretation.

70% constructive

16 of 23 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

30% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^AXJOMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks17351%0.4%-0.4%-13.9% to 21.4%
13 weeks10353%2.5%-0.2%-25.6% to 46.6%
26 weeks7952%3.9%0.5%-31.8% to 53.2%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +0.0% across 16 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

17 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
0.0%
13w
-6.4%
26w
7.0%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 16 38% 0.0% -32.8% to 20.4%
13 weeks 12 33% -6.4% -32.9% to 7.0%
26 weeks 7 86% 7.0% -1.9% to 15.9%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-11 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 9.6% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2025-04-04 Confirmed Low 0.26 -14.8% 2 weeks
2025-08-01 Confirmed High 0.385 48.1% 17 weeks
2025-09-05 Confirmed Low 0.345 -10.4% 5 weeks
2025-11-14 Confirmed High 0.435 26.1% 10 weeks
2026-02-13 Confirmed Low 0.315 -27.6% 13 weeks
2026-02-20 Confirmed High 0.39 23.8% 1 weeks
2026-03-06 Confirmed Low 0.34 -12.8% 2 weeks
2026-03-13 Confirmed High 0.385 13.2% 1 weeks
2026-06-12 Confirmed Low 0.225 -41.6% 13 weeks
2026-07-03 Confirmed High 0.25 11.1% 3 weeks
2026-08-21 Confirmed Low 0.225 -10.0% 7 weeks
2026-09-11 Forming High 0.27 20.0% 3 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context