HKG · Consumer Cyclical · Weekly analysis

0253 Elliott Wave report

Shun Ho Holdings Limited

Latest close HKD 0.62 Week ending 11 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

The wave count points to a decline

The selected pattern describes a move downward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

95/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Triggered Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countHurst crest risk

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings support this direction

6 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 1 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

Main uncertaintyLow count stability

The leading count changed 4 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in HKD · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-09-220.781.060.9351
2023-09-290.781.050.935
2023-10-060.741.030.9346
2023-10-130.741.020.9342
2023-10-200.741.000.9334
2023-10-270.750.98930.9326
2023-11-030.750.9750.9319
2023-11-100.750.960.9303
2023-11-170.750.9450.9287
2023-11-240.750.9320.9271
2023-12-010.710.91770.9253
2023-12-080.710.90170.9238
2023-12-150.710.8830.9221
2023-12-220.700.8640.9203
2023-12-290.700.85030.9183
2024-01-050.760.83970.9173
2024-01-120.840.830.9162
2024-01-190.820.81970.9156
2024-01-260.820.81130.9159
2024-02-020.820.80530.9158
2024-02-090.680.79370.9147
2024-02-160.690.78430.9133
2024-02-230.730.77670.9124
2024-03-010.720.7680.9109
2024-03-080.720.760.9095
2024-03-150.730.75370.9082
2024-03-220.760.7510.9071
2024-03-290.700.74770.9056
2024-04-050.700.74430.9047
2024-04-120.700.74170.9036
2024-04-190.710.73930.9021
2024-04-260.700.73670.9007
2024-05-030.700.73530.8993
2024-05-100.700.7340.8978
2024-05-170.710.7330.8963
2024-05-240.680.73070.8946
2024-05-310.690.72870.893
2024-06-070.700.7270.8915
2024-06-140.710.72570.8904
2024-06-210.700.7240.8892
2024-06-280.710.7240.8881
2024-07-050.690.72330.8869
2024-07-120.700.7230.8856
2024-07-190.690.72270.8844
2024-07-260.690.72230.8832
2024-08-020.710.72070.882
2024-08-090.700.7160.8807
2024-08-160.700.7120.8794
2024-08-230.700.7080.8781
2024-08-300.690.70370.8769
2024-09-060.690.7040.8756
2024-09-130.690.7040.8744
2024-09-200.690.70270.8731
2024-09-270.690.70170.8718
2024-10-040.750.70270.8703
2024-10-110.750.70330.8694
2024-10-180.750.7030.8685
2024-10-250.750.70470.8676
2024-11-010.750.70630.8666
2024-11-080.750.7080.8656
2024-11-150.720.70830.8644
2024-11-220.720.7090.8632
2024-11-290.720.70970.8621
2024-12-060.720.71030.861
2024-12-130.660.70870.8596
2024-12-200.690.7090.8582
2024-12-270.690.7090.8569
2025-01-030.690.70870.8555
2025-01-100.620.70570.8538
2025-01-170.620.7030.8522
2025-01-240.600.69930.8504
2025-01-310.600.69630.8485
2025-02-070.650.69470.8467
2025-02-140.650.69330.8449
2025-02-210.650.6920.8433
2025-02-280.600.68830.8413
2025-03-070.590.68470.8394
2025-03-140.620.6820.8376
2025-03-210.630.67970.8358
2025-03-280.590.67630.8342
2025-04-040.580.67270.8324
2025-04-110.570.66870.8305
2025-04-180.550.6640.8287
2025-04-250.550.65930.8267
2025-05-020.550.65270.8247
2025-05-090.570.64670.8228
2025-05-160.550.640.8206
2025-05-230.550.63330.8185
2025-05-300.550.62670.8163
2025-06-060.540.61970.814
2025-06-130.600.61570.8121
2025-06-200.600.61170.81
2025-06-270.610.6080.8083
2025-07-040.620.60470.8066
2025-07-110.640.6040.8051
2025-07-180.600.6010.8033
2025-07-250.610.59830.8015
2025-08-010.610.59570.7998
2025-08-080.620.59570.7983
2025-08-150.610.59530.7968
2025-08-220.600.59530.7949
2025-08-290.610.59570.7929
2025-09-050.590.59370.7909
2025-09-120.590.59170.7889
2025-09-190.600.590.7872
2025-09-260.600.590.7856
2025-10-030.630.59130.7841
2025-10-100.580.590.7826
2025-10-170.580.58830.781
2025-10-240.560.58730.7794
2025-10-310.560.58670.7779
2025-11-070.550.5860.7766
2025-11-140.560.58630.7754
2025-11-210.540.5860.7742
2025-11-280.540.58570.7727
2025-12-050.520.5840.7709
2025-12-120.520.5830.7682
2025-12-190.560.58330.7658
2025-12-260.600.5850.7628
2026-01-020.570.5860.7597
2026-01-090.580.58530.7567
2026-01-160.600.58530.7531
2026-01-230.670.58730.75
2026-01-300.650.58830.7467
2026-02-060.630.5880.7433
2026-02-130.650.58970.7404
2026-02-200.650.5910.7375
2026-02-270.680.59330.7346
2026-03-060.690.59570.7318
2026-03-130.690.59830.728
2026-03-200.670.60070.7249
2026-03-270.650.6020.7219
2026-04-030.660.60430.7186
2026-04-100.690.60770.7153
2026-04-170.690.61070.7121
2026-04-240.660.61270.709
2026-05-010.660.61370.7059
2026-05-080.670.61670.7026
2026-05-150.670.61970.6987
2026-05-220.670.62330.6949
2026-05-290.670.6270.6921
2026-06-050.670.6310.6894
2026-06-120.650.6340.6863
2026-06-190.650.63770.6833
2026-06-260.620.64030.6804
2026-07-030.630.6440.678
2026-07-100.630.64770.6754
2026-07-170.640.65030.6733
2026-07-240.640.65170.6713
2026-07-310.660.65470.6692
2026-08-070.640.65670.6672
2026-08-140.640.6580.6654
2026-08-210.620.65630.664
2026-08-280.620.65530.6628
2026-09-040.620.6550.6617
2026-09-110.620.6540.6606
4-week return -3.1%
13-week return -4.6%
26-week return -10.1%
52-week return 5.1%
From 52-week high -15.1%
26-week volatility 15.6%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 5.2% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 2 crestPrimary swing size · Leading33%
Possible bearish Wave 2 crestStrategic swing size33%
Possible bearish Wave 2 crestTactical swing size33%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Possible bearish Wave 2 crest

33% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 0.62 Fails above 0.66 Count stability Low · 36/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 0.66; Wave 2 0.62.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 0% of Wave 1.
Strategic degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Strategic degree uses a 8.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Primary degree uses a 5.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Tactical degree uses a 3.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 0.0%

3 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.52

Pivot from 2025-12-12

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.66

Pivot from 2026-07-31

30-week trend 0.654

Price is -5.2% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.6606

Price is -6.2% from Fair Value

52-week range position 53%

0.495 low · 0.73 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

6 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 1 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

86% directional agreement

The other readings support this direction. 6 readings support the selected direction; 1 lean against it.

Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

5.2% below trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is not rising.

Falling
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are weakening together.

Falling Stack
Relative strength

Outperforming its benchmark

+2.7
Market activity

Participation is weak

-17.2
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-1.3
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-4.6
Balance of readings Defensive

1 constructive, 6 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is weak. This supports the downward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Outperforming its benchmark. This challenges the downward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is negative. This supports the downward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is weak. This supports the downward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is falling. A recovery in price needs support from the other readings.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 7/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseFalling

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementFalling Stack

0/100 constructive · 100/100 risk

Estimated next low12 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high9 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 8w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score7/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough1w
Possible next low5–9w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough1w
Possible next low10–18w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 50w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough38w
Possible next low0–41w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 80w
Current phaseCresting
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough7w
Possible next low58–88w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 51.6% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 15.1% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 100/100.

  • Cycle rollover

    Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.

  • Count instability

    The primary interpretation has low recent stability.

Downside risk check

Watch

32/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover11/15
Multi-cycle risk15/15
Count instability6/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.495
52-week high0.73
Annualised volatility15.6%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range0.2%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-51.6%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume225%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

48% constructive

11 of 23 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

17% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^HSIMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks63849%-0.2%-0.1%-14.8% to 17.4%
13 weeks24149%-0.2%0.7%-21.5% to 31.5%
26 weeks13851%0.1%-1.3%-27.9% to 49.1%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was -1.7% across 79 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

79 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
-1.7%
13w
0.0%
26w
1.8%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 79 37% -1.7% -18.4% to 37.7%
13 weeks 74 47% 0.0% -28.2% to 54.7%
26 weeks 74 57% 1.8% -34.6% to 74.0%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-11 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 5.2% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2025-09-12 Confirmed Low 0.59 -7.8% 9 weeks
2025-10-03 Confirmed High 0.63 6.8% 3 weeks
2025-12-12 Confirmed Low 0.52 -17.5% 10 weeks
2026-01-23 Confirmed High 0.67 28.8% 6 weeks
2026-02-06 Confirmed Low 0.63 -6.0% 2 weeks
2026-03-13 Confirmed High 0.69 9.5% 5 weeks
2026-03-27 Confirmed Low 0.65 -5.8% 2 weeks
2026-04-17 Confirmed High 0.69 6.2% 3 weeks
2026-06-26 Confirmed Low 0.62 -10.1% 10 weeks
2026-07-31 Confirmed High 0.66 6.5% 5 weeks
2026-08-21 Confirmed Low 0.62 -6.1% 3 weeks
2026-09-11 Forming High 0.62 0.0% 3 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context