HEL · Industrials · Weekly analysis

TULAV Elliott Wave report

Tulikivi Corporation

Latest close EUR 0.53 Week ending 18 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

The wave count points to an advance

The selected pattern describes a move upward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

45/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Setup in timing window Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countPossible Wave 2 trough

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings point the other way

5 of 7 available readings lean against the upward wave interpretation; 2 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

Main uncertaintyLow count stability

The leading count changed 4 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in EUR · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-09-290.47210.49220.4496
2023-10-060.46450.49070.4516
2023-10-130.46930.48980.4536
2023-10-200.46930.48790.4556
2023-10-270.45590.48560.4576
2023-11-030.41850.48220.4593
2023-11-100.40220.47820.461
2023-11-170.39220.47320.4626
2023-11-240.38790.46810.4641
2023-12-010.38930.4630.4656
2023-12-080.37780.45930.4671
2023-12-150.38070.45560.4684
2023-12-220.45680.45550.4697
2023-12-290.45590.4550.4703
2024-01-050.45780.45490.4715
2024-01-120.45010.45430.4728
2024-01-190.44960.45360.474
2024-01-260.45010.45230.4752
2024-02-020.45440.45060.4765
2024-02-090.43580.44880.4776
2024-02-160.4290.44750.4786
2024-02-230.46880.44740.4799
2024-03-010.41180.44490.4807
2024-03-080.37350.44170.4812
2024-03-150.38690.43760.4819
2024-03-220.39170.43540.4825
2024-03-290.40180.4330.4833
2024-04-050.45010.43250.4843
2024-04-120.43670.43080.4854
2024-04-190.43960.42930.4862
2024-04-260.45960.42890.4871
2024-05-030.44980.42840.4876
2024-05-100.41560.42660.4882
2024-05-170.3980.42430.4887
2024-05-240.42830.42330.4894
2024-05-310.42830.42370.49
2024-06-070.43320.42470.4906
2024-06-140.42140.42570.4911
2024-06-210.43020.42710.4916
2024-06-280.440.42880.4922
2024-07-050.42340.43030.4925
2024-07-120.41850.43160.4926
2024-07-190.41460.43010.491
2024-07-260.42040.4290.4904
2024-08-020.41070.42740.4897
2024-08-090.3950.42560.4885
2024-08-160.42530.42470.4874
2024-08-230.46250.42520.4869
2024-08-300.48690.42620.4864
2024-09-060.44880.42670.4858
2024-09-130.42830.42660.4855
2024-09-200.44490.42590.4853
2024-09-270.44490.4270.4852
2024-10-040.44290.42930.4849
2024-10-110.46350.43180.4848
2024-10-180.42830.4330.4843
2024-10-250.44980.43460.4841
2024-11-010.42440.43380.4835
2024-11-080.42140.43330.4832
2024-11-150.40770.43220.483
2024-11-220.40870.43050.4829
2024-11-290.40090.42890.4827
2024-12-060.41070.42870.4825
2024-12-130.40090.42880.4822
2024-12-200.37160.42690.4818
2024-12-270.3940.42580.4814
2025-01-030.41750.42530.4812
2025-01-100.40380.42470.4803
2025-01-170.41750.42430.4799
2025-01-240.42830.42390.4798
2025-01-310.40870.42340.4793
2025-02-070.42040.42340.479
2025-02-140.45370.42470.4791
2025-02-210.45170.42580.4792
2025-02-280.45960.42740.4796
2025-03-070.47910.43020.4799
2025-03-140.46050.43140.4801
2025-03-210.46640.43150.4804
2025-03-280.47620.43120.4807
2025-04-040.45860.43150.4806
2025-04-110.47320.4330.4807
2025-04-180.47420.4340.4807
2025-04-250.47030.43480.4809
2025-05-020.47720.4360.4812
2025-05-090.46930.43620.4815
2025-05-160.44290.43660.4814
2025-05-230.46930.43730.4815
2025-05-300.47320.43890.4817
2025-06-060.46150.44030.4819
2025-06-130.45860.4420.4819
2025-06-200.4410.4430.4819
2025-06-270.46350.44510.482
2025-07-040.44680.44630.482
2025-07-110.44590.44780.4817
2025-07-180.44490.45030.4815
2025-07-250.44290.45190.481
2025-08-010.44390.45280.4804
2025-08-080.4380.45390.4785
2025-08-150.45170.45510.4766
2025-08-220.44490.45560.4747
2025-08-290.44490.45680.4734
2025-09-050.45960.45810.4723
2025-09-120.44980.4580.4708
2025-09-190.43410.45740.4695
2025-09-260.44880.4570.4686
2025-10-030.440.45570.4672
2025-10-100.4290.45470.4657
2025-10-170.4310.45350.4641
2025-10-240.4350.45210.4623
2025-10-310.4550.4520.4609
2025-11-070.4550.45140.4599
2025-11-140.450.45060.4589
2025-11-210.4480.44990.4581
2025-11-280.4660.44950.4574
2025-12-050.470.44950.4567
2025-12-120.470.45040.4561
2025-12-190.4930.45120.4556
2025-12-260.4750.45130.455
2026-01-020.500.45250.4545
2026-01-090.5380.45520.4544
2026-01-160.620.46120.4548
2026-01-230.5640.46450.4549
2026-01-300.5580.46820.4549
2026-02-060.540.47140.4549
2026-02-130.520.47390.4547
2026-02-200.5160.47630.4546
2026-02-270.4890.47780.4542
2026-03-060.4790.47920.454
2026-03-130.4960.48060.454
2026-03-200.480.48180.4538
2026-03-270.510.4840.4536
2026-04-030.5380.48660.4538
2026-04-100.570.49060.4541
2026-04-170.5860.49570.4543
2026-04-240.570.49970.4545
2026-05-010.560.50370.4547
2026-05-080.600.50940.4554
2026-05-150.5860.51460.456
2026-05-220.5780.51930.4567
2026-05-290.5680.52310.4574
2026-06-050.570.52690.4581
2026-06-120.5540.53040.4586
2026-06-190.5520.53390.4591
2026-06-260.5440.53650.4595
2026-07-030.5440.53890.4597
2026-07-100.5340.54110.46
2026-07-170.5620.54340.4606
2026-07-240.520.54490.4609
2026-07-310.540.54620.4613
2026-08-070.530.54590.4616
2026-08-140.5320.5430.4618
2026-08-210.5160.54140.4622
2026-08-280.5060.53970.4624
2026-09-040.510.53870.4627
2026-09-110.550.53970.4631
2026-09-180.530.54010.4634
4-week return 2.7%
13-week return -4.0%
26-week return 10.4%
52-week return 22.1%
From 52-week high -18.2%
26-week volatility 27.7%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 8.5% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible Wave 2 troughPrimary swing size · Leading38%
A/B/C reset may be completingPrimary swing size25%
Possible Wave 2 troughTactical swing size38%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Possible Wave 2 trough

38% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm above 0.55 Fails below 0.506 Count stability Low · 36/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 0.506; Wave 2 0.53.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 45% of Wave 1.
Strategic degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Strategic degree uses a 13.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible Wave 2 trough

Primary degree uses a 8.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible Wave 2 trough

Tactical degree uses a 5.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing -3.6%

1 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.506

Pivot from 2026-08-28

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.55

Pivot from 2026-09-11

30-week trend 0.5401

Price is -1.9% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.4634

Price is 14.4% from Fair Value

52-week range position 48%

0.4204 low · 0.648 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

5 of 7 available readings lean against the upward wave interpretation; 2 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

71% directional agreement

The other readings point the other way. 2 readings support the selected direction; 5 lean against it.

Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

1.9% below trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Troughing
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are weakening together.

Falling Stack
Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-7.1
Market activity

Participation is weak

-6.1
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-0.6
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+2.7
Balance of readings Defensive

2 constructive, 5 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is weak. This challenges the upward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark. This challenges the upward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is positive. This supports the upward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is weak. This challenges the upward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is near a low and starting to turn. Look for price to confirm an upswing.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 41/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseTroughing

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementFalling Stack

25/100 constructive · 75/100 risk

Estimated next low11 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high7 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 12w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough3w
Possible next low6–12w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 25w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score6/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough2w
Possible next low18–28w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 36w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score41/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough25w
Possible next low0–24w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 60w
Current phaseCresting
Repeat score1/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough46w
Possible next low3–25w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 29.1% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 18.2% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 75/100.

  • Count instability

    The primary interpretation has low recent stability.

Downside risk check

Contained

17/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover0/15
Multi-cycle risk11/15
Count instability6/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.4204
52-week high0.648
Annualised volatility27.7%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range4.5%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-29.1%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume131%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

45% constructive

10 of 22 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

32% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^OMXH25Middle 80% of returns
4 weeks16054%0.5%-1.2%-9.1% to 10.5%
13 weeks8748%-0.4%-4.2%-16.2% to 18.9%
26 weeks7161%3.4%-1.7%-16.1% to 32.3%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +0.9% across 70 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

70 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
0.9%
13w
1.6%
26w
3.8%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 70 59% 0.9% -14.9% to 22.1%
13 weeks 67 55% 1.6% -14.3% to 43.9%
26 weeks 66 55% 3.8% -19.0% to 39.4%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-18 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 8.5% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2024-06-28 Confirmed High 0.44 10.6% 6 weeks
2024-08-09 Confirmed Low 0.395 -10.2% 6 weeks
2024-08-30 Confirmed High 0.4869 23.3% 3 weeks
2024-12-20 Confirmed Low 0.3716 -23.7% 16 weeks
2025-03-07 Confirmed High 0.4791 28.9% 11 weeks
2025-10-10 Confirmed Low 0.429 -10.5% 31 weeks
2026-01-16 Confirmed High 0.62 44.5% 14 weeks
2026-03-06 Confirmed Low 0.479 -22.7% 7 weeks
2026-05-08 Confirmed High 0.60 25.3% 9 weeks
2026-08-28 Confirmed Low 0.506 -15.7% 16 weeks
2026-09-11 Confirmed High 0.55 8.7% 2 weeks
2026-09-18 Forming Low 0.53 -3.6% 1 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context