TOR · Basic Materials · Weekly analysis

FT Elliott Wave report

Fortune Minerals Limited

Latest close CAD 0.15 Week ending 4 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

The wave count points to a decline

The selected pattern describes a move downward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

55/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Watching Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countPossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings point the other way

4 of 7 available readings lean against the downward wave interpretation; 2 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

Main uncertaintyLow count stability

The leading count changed 5 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in CAD · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-09-150.040.0530.1003
2023-09-220.040.0520.1001
2023-09-290.050.05130.0999
2023-10-060.040.05030.0997
2023-10-130.050.04970.0996
2023-10-200.040.04870.0993
2023-10-270.040.04770.0991
2023-11-030.030.0470.0988
2023-11-100.040.04670.0987
2023-11-170.030.0460.0984
2023-11-240.040.04570.0982
2023-12-010.040.04530.098
2023-12-080.040.0450.0979
2023-12-150.050.0450.0977
2023-12-220.050.04470.0976
2023-12-290.040.04430.0973
2024-01-050.050.04430.097
2024-01-120.040.0440.0967
2024-01-190.050.0440.0962
2024-01-260.040.04370.0957
2024-02-020.040.04370.0951
2024-02-090.040.04330.0944
2024-02-160.040.0430.0938
2024-02-230.040.04270.0933
2024-03-010.040.04230.0928
2024-03-080.040.0420.0923
2024-03-150.040.04170.0916
2024-03-220.030.0410.0906
2024-03-290.030.04070.0897
2024-04-050.040.04070.0888
2024-04-120.040.04070.0879
2024-04-190.040.04070.0871
2024-04-260.050.04070.0864
2024-05-030.050.0410.0857
2024-05-100.060.04130.0852
2024-05-170.080.04270.0848
2024-05-240.090.04430.0845
2024-05-310.100.04670.0842
2024-06-070.080.0480.0838
2024-06-140.090.050.0835
2024-06-210.090.05170.0832
2024-06-280.090.05330.0829
2024-07-050.080.05470.0826
2024-07-120.070.05530.0822
2024-07-190.090.05670.0821
2024-07-260.060.05730.0817
2024-08-020.060.05770.0814
2024-08-090.060.05830.0812
2024-08-160.060.05870.0809
2024-08-230.060.05930.0805
2024-08-300.060.060.0801
2024-09-060.060.06070.0798
2024-09-130.060.06130.0795
2024-09-200.060.0620.0792
2024-09-270.050.06230.0787
2024-10-040.050.06270.0783
2024-10-110.060.06330.0779
2024-10-180.060.06430.0774
2024-10-250.060.06530.077
2024-11-010.060.0660.0765
2024-11-080.050.06630.076
2024-11-150.050.06670.0754
2024-11-220.050.06670.0748
2024-11-290.050.06670.0743
2024-12-060.050.06630.0737
2024-12-130.050.06530.0732
2024-12-200.050.0640.0726
2024-12-270.050.06230.0721
2025-01-030.050.06130.0714
2025-01-100.050.060.0708
2025-01-170.050.05870.0703
2025-01-240.050.05730.0697
2025-01-310.050.05630.0691
2025-02-070.050.05570.0685
2025-02-140.050.05430.0679
2025-02-210.040.05370.0673
2025-02-280.040.0530.0667
2025-03-070.050.05270.0661
2025-03-140.050.05230.0655
2025-03-210.080.0530.0651
2025-03-280.060.0530.0646
2025-04-040.050.05270.064
2025-04-110.060.05270.0635
2025-04-180.080.05330.0632
2025-04-250.060.05370.0628
2025-05-020.080.05470.0626
2025-05-090.070.0550.0623
2025-05-160.070.05530.0621
2025-05-230.060.05530.0618
2025-05-300.060.05530.0616
2025-06-060.060.05570.0613
2025-06-130.070.05630.0612
2025-06-200.080.05730.061
2025-06-270.090.05870.061
2025-07-040.110.06070.0611
2025-07-110.100.06230.0611
2025-07-180.100.0640.0611
2025-07-250.090.06530.061
2025-08-010.080.06630.0609
2025-08-080.080.06730.0608
2025-08-150.080.06830.0606
2025-08-220.080.06930.0605
2025-08-290.080.07030.0604
2025-09-050.080.07130.0603
2025-09-120.080.07230.0603
2025-09-190.070.07330.0602
2025-09-260.070.07430.0601
2025-10-030.090.07570.0602
2025-10-100.080.07670.0602
2025-10-170.100.07730.0603
2025-10-240.090.07830.0603
2025-10-310.110.08030.0605
2025-11-070.090.08130.0606
2025-11-140.090.08170.0606
2025-11-210.090.08270.0607
2025-11-280.090.0830.0608
2025-12-050.100.0840.061
2025-12-120.090.08470.0611
2025-12-190.090.08570.0612
2025-12-260.090.08670.0613
2026-01-020.090.08770.0614
2026-01-090.120.08930.0617
2026-01-160.110.09030.0619
2026-01-230.110.0910.0621
2026-01-300.110.0910.0622
2026-02-060.120.09170.0625
2026-02-130.120.09230.0628
2026-02-200.130.09370.0631
2026-02-270.120.0950.0635
2026-03-060.120.09630.0638
2026-03-130.120.09770.0641
2026-03-200.110.09870.0644
2026-03-270.100.09930.0646
2026-04-030.110.10030.0649
2026-04-100.120.10170.0654
2026-04-170.120.10330.0658
2026-04-240.120.1050.0663
2026-05-010.150.1070.0669
2026-05-080.170.110.0677
2026-05-150.180.11270.0685
2026-05-220.210.11670.0695
2026-05-290.200.11970.0704
2026-06-050.180.12270.0713
2026-06-120.170.12530.0721
2026-06-190.150.12730.0727
2026-06-260.150.12930.0733
2026-07-030.160.13130.0741
2026-07-100.140.1330.0747
2026-07-170.120.1340.0751
2026-07-240.130.13530.0756
2026-07-310.130.13670.0762
2026-08-070.140.13730.0767
2026-08-140.130.1380.0772
2026-08-210.140.1390.0778
2026-08-280.150.14030.0785
2026-09-040.150.14130.0792
4-week return 7.1%
13-week return -16.7%
26-week return 25.0%
52-week return 87.5%
From 52-week high -40.0%
26-week volatility 69.2%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 16.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 2 crestPrimary swing size · Leading6%
Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completingPrimary swing size4%
Five-wave advance matureStrategic swing size90%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Possible bearish Wave 2 crest

6% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 0.12 Fails above 0.21 Count stability Low · 20/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 0.21; Wave 2 0.15.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 33% of Wave 1.
Strategic degreeFive-wave advance mature

Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 25.0%

7 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.12

Pivot from 2026-07-17

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.21

Pivot from 2026-05-22

30-week trend 0.1413

Price is 6.1% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.0792

Price is 89.3% from Fair Value

52-week range position 44%

0.07 low · 0.25 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

4 of 7 available readings lean against the downward wave interpretation; 2 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

57% directional agreement

The other readings point the other way. 2 readings support the selected direction; 4 lean against it.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

6.1% above trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Troughing
Cycle alignment

Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction.

Mixed
Relative strength

Outperforming its benchmark

+12.7
Market activity

Participation is weak

-0.6
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-0.7
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+25.0
Balance of readings Constructive

4 constructive, 2 weak and 1 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is weak. This supports the downward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Outperforming its benchmark. This challenges the downward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is positive. This challenges the downward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is weak. This supports the downward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is near a low and starting to turn. Look for price to confirm an upswing.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 63/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseTroughing

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementMixed

50/100 constructive · 50/100 risk

Estimated next low19 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high9 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 12w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough6w
Possible next low2–10w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 22w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough3w
Possible next low15–23w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 48w
Current phaseCresting
Repeat score29/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough19w
Possible next low15–43w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 86w
Current phaseCresting
Repeat score63/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough35w
Possible next low41–61w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 28.6% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 40.0% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 50/100.

  • Count instability

    The primary interpretation has low recent stability.

Downside risk check

Contained

16/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover0/15
Multi-cycle risk8/15
Count instability8/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.07
52-week high0.25
Annualised volatility69.2%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range8.1%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-28.6%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume51%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

30% constructive

7 of 23 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

91% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^GSPTSEMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks20153%1.4%-0.2%-12.7% to 16.5%
13 weeks12058%3.6%0.8%-20.5% to 31.4%
26 weeks8469%11.2%6.8%-14.4% to 61.8%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +0.0% across 27 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

28 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
0.0%
13w
9.2%
26w
27.8%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 27 41% 0.0% -16.7% to 75.0%
13 weeks 24 54% 9.2% -16.7% to 50.0%
26 weeks 20 60% 27.8% -33.3% to 133.3%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-04 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 16.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2025-04-25 Confirmed Low 0.06 -25.0% 1 weeks
2025-05-02 Confirmed High 0.08 33.3% 1 weeks
2025-06-06 Confirmed Low 0.06 -25.0% 5 weeks
2025-07-04 Confirmed High 0.11 83.3% 4 weeks
2025-09-26 Confirmed Low 0.07 -36.4% 12 weeks
2025-10-31 Confirmed High 0.11 57.1% 5 weeks
2026-01-02 Confirmed Low 0.09 -18.2% 9 weeks
2026-02-20 Confirmed High 0.13 44.4% 7 weeks
2026-03-27 Confirmed Low 0.10 -23.1% 5 weeks
2026-05-22 Confirmed High 0.21 110.0% 8 weeks
2026-07-17 Confirmed Low 0.12 -42.9% 8 weeks
2026-09-04 Forming High 0.15 25.0% 7 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context