SES · Industrials · Weekly analysis

1J4 Elliott Wave report

JEP Holdings Ltd.

Latest close SGD 0.48 Week ending 11 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

The wave count points to a decline

The selected pattern describes a move downward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

88/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Triggered Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countHurst crest risk

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings support this direction

4 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 3 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

Main uncertaintyLow count stability

The leading count changed 5 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in SGD · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-09-220.330.3120.2778
2023-09-290.340.31320.2788
2023-10-060.310.31350.2796
2023-10-130.3250.31450.2806
2023-10-200.3250.31480.2816
2023-10-270.330.31530.2827
2023-11-030.3350.31620.2837
2023-11-100.3350.3170.2847
2023-11-170.330.31780.2855
2023-11-240.330.31870.2863
2023-12-010.3350.320.2872
2023-12-080.3350.32120.2881
2023-12-150.310.32150.2888
2023-12-220.3150.32220.2896
2023-12-290.3150.32280.2904
2024-01-050.330.3230.2912
2024-01-120.330.32320.2921
2024-01-190.330.32350.2929
2024-01-260.300.32330.2936
2024-02-020.300.3230.2942
2024-02-090.3150.32320.295
2024-02-160.3250.32330.2958
2024-02-230.3250.32380.2967
2024-03-010.3150.3240.2976
2024-03-080.320.32430.2984
2024-03-150.3250.32520.2993
2024-03-220.340.32530.3003
2024-03-290.340.3250.3013
2024-04-050.3450.32530.3022
2024-04-120.3450.32620.3031
2024-04-190.3350.32630.304
2024-04-260.3350.32620.3049
2024-05-030.3350.3270.3058
2024-05-100.3350.32730.3066
2024-05-170.330.32750.3075
2024-05-240.3250.32730.3083
2024-05-310.330.32720.3091
2024-06-070.350.32770.31
2024-06-140.3350.32780.3108
2024-06-210.320.32750.3116
2024-06-280.3150.32680.3121
2024-07-050.3150.32620.3127
2024-07-120.320.32650.3133
2024-07-190.320.32670.3138
2024-07-260.3150.32670.3144
2024-08-020.320.32630.3149
2024-08-090.320.3260.3155
2024-08-160.320.32570.3162
2024-08-230.320.32630.3169
2024-08-300.300.32630.3173
2024-09-060.2950.32570.3179
2024-09-130.300.32480.3185
2024-09-200.2950.32380.3189
2024-09-270.2950.32320.3194
2024-10-040.2950.32230.32
2024-10-110.2850.3210.3204
2024-10-180.2750.31880.3207
2024-10-250.2750.31670.3209
2024-11-010.290.31480.3213
2024-11-080.290.3130.3217
2024-11-150.290.31150.3219
2024-11-220.290.310.3223
2024-11-290.290.30850.3227
2024-12-060.290.3070.3228
2024-12-130.260.30470.3226
2024-12-200.260.30250.3225
2024-12-270.2850.3010.3225
2025-01-030.2850.29880.3225
2025-01-100.2750.29680.3225
2025-01-170.260.29480.3225
2025-01-240.260.2930.3225
2025-01-310.290.29220.3227
2025-02-070.250.28980.3226
2025-02-140.2650.2880.3225
2025-02-210.2650.28630.3225
2025-02-280.290.28530.3225
2025-03-070.260.28330.3224
2025-03-140.260.28130.3223
2025-03-210.2650.27950.3222
2025-03-280.2650.27830.3221
2025-04-040.250.27680.3216
2025-04-110.250.27520.3208
2025-04-180.250.27370.3199
2025-04-250.2550.27230.3191
2025-05-020.2550.2710.3184
2025-05-090.2550.270.3176
2025-05-160.260.26950.3168
2025-05-230.1950.26680.3155
2025-05-300.260.26580.3147
2025-06-060.260.26480.314
2025-06-130.260.26380.3136
2025-06-200.240.26220.3128
2025-06-270.2550.2610.3121
2025-07-040.2450.25950.3114
2025-07-110.2550.25930.3108
2025-07-180.250.2590.3102
2025-07-250.2850.2590.3098
2025-08-010.270.25850.3092
2025-08-080.2750.25850.3086
2025-08-150.260.25850.3078
2025-08-220.260.25850.3071
2025-08-290.250.25720.3062
2025-09-050.2550.25730.3053
2025-09-120.2550.2570.3046
2025-09-190.2550.25670.304
2025-09-260.2550.25550.3034
2025-10-030.250.25520.3028
2025-10-100.250.25480.3023
2025-10-170.250.25430.3019
2025-10-240.250.25380.3016
2025-10-310.260.25420.3012
2025-11-070.2550.25430.3007
2025-11-140.270.2550.3004
2025-11-210.2650.25530.30
2025-11-280.270.25580.2996
2025-12-050.270.25630.2993
2025-12-120.2650.25650.2989
2025-12-190.2650.25880.2982
2025-12-260.2650.2590.2977
2026-01-020.270.25930.2974
2026-01-090.270.25970.297
2026-01-160.3050.26180.2969
2026-01-230.300.26330.2965
2026-01-300.290.26480.296
2026-02-060.280.26570.2954
2026-02-130.2850.26680.2949
2026-02-200.290.2670.2946
2026-02-270.2950.26780.2945
2026-03-060.2850.26820.2944
2026-03-130.2750.26870.2943
2026-03-200.280.26930.294
2026-03-270.2750.27020.2938
2026-04-030.2750.27080.2936
2026-04-100.310.27270.2936
2026-04-170.3350.27530.2938
2026-04-240.400.28020.2944
2026-05-010.480.28780.2955
2026-05-080.5150.29670.2969
2026-05-150.7150.31220.2996
2026-05-220.6950.3270.3021
2026-05-290.7250.34250.3049
2026-06-050.650.35570.307
2026-06-120.600.36670.3088
2026-06-190.6150.37830.3106
2026-06-260.5850.38880.3124
2026-07-030.600.39980.3143
2026-07-100.610.41130.3162
2026-07-170.5350.42030.3176
2026-07-240.5750.43070.3193
2026-07-310.560.44030.3209
2026-08-070.560.450.3225
2026-08-140.5650.45870.3242
2026-08-210.520.4660.3254
2026-08-280.480.47230.3262
2026-09-040.440.47770.3269
2026-09-110.480.48420.3279
4-week return -15.0%
13-week return -20.0%
26-week return 74.5%
52-week return 88.2%
From 52-week high -43.2%
26-week volatility 78.8%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 6.3% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 4 crestPrimary swing size · Leading36%
Possible bearish Wave 2 crestPrimary swing size9%
Possible Wave 4 troughStrategic swing size55%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Possible bearish Wave 4 crest

36% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 0.44 Fails above 0.575 Count stability Low · 20/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 0.725; Wave 2 0.575.
PassWave 3 exceeds Wave 1Wave 1 0.535; Wave 3 0.44.
PassWave 4 does not overlap Wave 1Wave 1 boundary 0.535; Wave 4 0.48.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 21% of Wave 1.
GuidelineWave 3 extension is plausibleWave 3 is 0.71× Wave 1.
GuidelineWave 4 retracement is proportionateRetraced 30% of Wave 3.
GuidelineWaves 2 and 4 show temporal alternationWave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 1w.
Strategic degreePossible Wave 4 trough

Strategic degree uses a 10.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible bearish Wave 4 crest

Primary degree uses a 6.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible bearish Wave 4 crest

Tactical degree uses a 4.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 9.1%

1 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.44

Pivot from 2026-09-04

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.575

Pivot from 2026-07-24

30-week trend 0.4842

Price is -0.9% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.3279

Price is 46.4% from Fair Value

52-week range position 40%

0.235 low · 0.845 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

4 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 3 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

57% directional agreement

The other readings support this direction. 4 readings support the selected direction; 3 lean against it.

Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

0.9% below trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is not rising.

Falling
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are weakening together.

Falling Stack
Relative strength

Outperforming its benchmark

+7.9
Market activity

Participation is supportive

+18.8
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-0.8
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+68.4
Balance of readings Defensive

3 constructive, 4 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Outperforming its benchmark. This challenges the downward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is positive. This challenges the downward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is weak. This supports the downward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is falling. A recovery in price needs support from the other readings.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 32/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseFalling

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementFalling Stack

25/100 constructive · 75/100 risk

Estimated next low7 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high17 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 8w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough8w
Possible next low4–12w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 23w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score32/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough23w
Possible next low18–28w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 30w
Current phaseCresting
Repeat score26/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough23w
Possible next low0–17w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 100w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough51w
Possible next low30–68w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 33.8% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 43.2% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Cycle rollover

    Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 75/100.

  • Count instability

    The primary interpretation has low recent stability.

Downside risk check

Watch

30/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover11/15
Multi-cycle risk11/15
Count instability8/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.235
52-week high0.845
Annualised volatility78.8%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range8.7%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-33.8%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume64%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Most analysed peers have an upward wave count. That contrasts with this report’s downward interpretation.

52% constructive

12 of 23 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

22% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^STIMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks18654%0.5%-0.5%-6.7% to 9.5%
13 weeks10359%2.5%0.3%-10.9% to 25.0%
26 weeks7862%4.8%0.2%-16.9% to 49.5%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +0.8% across 22 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

22 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
0.8%
13w
4.6%
26w
-1.5%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 22 50% 0.8% -12.9% to 74.6%
13 weeks 22 59% 4.6% -14.1% to 118.2%
26 weeks 20 20% -1.5% -18.8% to 8.1%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-11 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 6.3% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2025-05-23 Confirmed Low 0.195 -32.8% 12 weeks
2025-06-13 Confirmed High 0.26 33.3% 3 weeks
2025-06-20 Confirmed Low 0.24 -7.7% 1 weeks
2025-07-25 Confirmed High 0.285 18.7% 5 weeks
2025-10-24 Confirmed Low 0.25 -12.3% 13 weeks
2026-01-16 Confirmed High 0.305 22.0% 12 weeks
2026-04-03 Confirmed Low 0.275 -9.8% 11 weeks
2026-05-29 Confirmed High 0.725 163.6% 8 weeks
2026-07-17 Confirmed Low 0.535 -26.2% 7 weeks
2026-07-24 Confirmed High 0.575 7.5% 1 weeks
2026-09-04 Confirmed Low 0.44 -23.5% 6 weeks
2026-09-11 Forming High 0.48 9.1% 1 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context