CBOE · Market · Weekly analysis

AMDW Elliott Wave report

ROUNDHILL AMD WEEKLYPAY ETF

Latest close USD 86.49 Week ending 11 Sep 2026 History 60 weeks
Current reading

The wave count points to a decline

The selected pattern describes a move downward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

20/100 Setup score 55/100 Data quality Triggered Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countNeeds more weekly history

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings point the other way

4 of 7 available readings lean against the downward wave interpretation; 2 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

Main uncertaintyUnavailable count stability

The most recent swing is still forming and can extend. A settled label needs a confirmed reversal.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in USD · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2025-07-2529.43Unavailable29.43
2025-08-0130.56Unavailable30.00
2025-08-0830.75Unavailable30.25
2025-08-1531.75Unavailable30.62
2025-08-2229.59Unavailable30.42
2025-08-2928.51Unavailable30.10
2025-09-0525.99Unavailable29.51
2025-09-1227.55Unavailable29.27
2025-09-1927.36Unavailable29.05
2025-09-2627.68Unavailable28.92
2025-10-0328.75Unavailable28.90
2025-10-1039.19Unavailable29.76
2025-10-1742.97Unavailable30.78
2025-10-2447.41Unavailable31.96
2025-10-3148.12Unavailable33.04
2025-11-0742.90Unavailable33.66
2025-11-1445.83Unavailable34.37
2025-11-2135.90Unavailable34.46
2025-11-2838.87Unavailable34.69
2025-12-0539.09Unavailable34.91
2025-12-1237.52Unavailable35.03
2025-12-1937.87Unavailable35.16
2025-12-2638.29Unavailable35.30
2026-01-0239.94Unavailable35.49
2026-01-0935.73Unavailable35.50
2026-01-1641.57Unavailable35.74
2026-01-2347.61Unavailable36.18
2026-01-3042.66Unavailable36.41
2026-02-0636.39Unavailable36.41
2026-02-1335.9936.3936.39
2026-02-2034.5536.5636.33
2026-02-2734.6436.7036.28
2026-03-0632.8736.7736.18
2026-03-1333.0136.8136.08
2026-03-2034.6336.9836.04
2026-03-2734.7637.1936.01
2026-04-0337.9437.5936.06
2026-04-1043.7338.1336.26
2026-04-1750.8538.9136.63
2026-04-2464.7840.1537.34
2026-05-0167.4441.4438.07
2026-05-0889.1343.1039.29
2026-05-1581.7644.3940.28
2026-05-2291.6045.8741.44
2026-05-29100.3047.6042.75
2026-06-0588.5549.1343.75
2026-06-1297.1050.8444.88
2026-06-19100.5052.9946.04
2026-06-2695.6654.8847.05
2026-07-0393.1256.6847.97
2026-07-10100.7858.7949.01
2026-07-1786.0860.4049.72
2026-07-2489.5462.1150.47
2026-07-3179.8663.4451.02
2026-08-0780.5664.9351.55
2026-08-1486.7466.4452.18
2026-08-2178.3667.4652.64
2026-08-2876.7968.6053.06
2026-09-0479.1570.0353.50
2026-09-1186.4971.7154.05
4-week return -0.3%
13-week return -10.9%
26-week return 162.0%
52-week return 213.9%
From 52-week high -19.5%
26-week volatility 79.5%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 16.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 2 crestPrimary swing size · Leading38%
Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completingPrimary swing size25%
Possible bearish Wave 2 crestTactical swing size38%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Possible bearish Wave 2 crest

38% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 79.86 Fails above 100.78 Count stability Unavailable · 0/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 100.78; Wave 2 86.49.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 32% of Wave 1.
Strategic degreeNo valid count

Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 8.3%

6 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 79.86

Pivot from 2026-07-31

Nearest confirmed resistance 100.78

Pivot from 2026-07-10

30-week trend 71.71

Price is 20.6% from trend

Fair Value reference 54.05

Price is 60.0% from Fair Value

52-week range position 74%

25.77 low · 107.44 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

4 of 7 available readings lean against the downward wave interpretation; 2 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

57% directional agreement

The other readings point the other way. 2 readings support the selected direction; 4 lean against it.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

20.6% above trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is not rising.

Falling
Cycle alignment

Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction.

Mixed
Relative strength

Outperforming its benchmark

+40.0
Market activity

Participation is supportive

+11.7
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-0.7
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+140.3
Balance of readings Constructive

4 constructive, 2 weak and 1 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Outperforming its benchmark. This challenges the downward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is positive. This challenges the downward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is weak. This supports the downward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is falling. A recovery in price needs support from the other readings.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 83/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseFalling

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementMixed

38/100 constructive · 62/100 risk

Estimated next low24 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high16 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 8w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough5w
Possible next low0–9w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 24w
Current phaseCresting
Repeat score83/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough24w
Possible next low22–26w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 40w
Current phaseCresting
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough-
Possible next low-
Typical / observed cycle80w / 80w
Current phaseWarming
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Unconfirmed
Since last trough-
Possible next low-
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 14.2% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 19.5% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Trend extension

    Price is 20.6% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.

  • Cycle rollover

    Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.

  • Count instability

    The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability.

Downside risk check

Elevated vulnerability

50/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension20/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover11/15
Multi-cycle risk9/15
Count instability10/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low25.77
52-week high107.44
Annualised volatility79.5%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range15.4%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-14.2%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume98%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

13% constructive

2 of 15 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

33% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Only options information is available

Options: Bullish · 43/100 conviction · ±5.9% expected move

Stored options pressure is bullish with 43/100 conviction.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs SPYMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks8452%0.4%-1.3%-7.2% to 6.8%
13 weeks4961%3.9%-0.4%-12.7% to 12.4%
26 weeks3768%3.7%-4.0%-18.6% to 29.2%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

There are not enough completed, comparable outcomes to draw a useful historical comparison.

0 similar weekly states
Not enough comparable history yet

Historical context appears only when at least eight completed outcomes are available for one of the measured horizons.

At least 90 weekly observations are required.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality55/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
23/100
Indicator coverage
60/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-11 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 16.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2025-11-14 Confirmed High 45.83 - 0 weeks
2026-01-09 Confirmed Low 35.73 -22.0% 8 weeks
2026-01-23 Confirmed High 47.61 33.2% 2 weeks
2026-03-06 Confirmed Low 32.87 -31.0% 6 weeks
2026-07-10 Confirmed High 100.78 206.6% 18 weeks
2026-07-31 Confirmed Low 79.86 -20.8% 3 weeks
2026-09-11 Forming High 86.49 8.3% 6 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context