ASX · Consumer Cyclical · Weekly analysis

ATP Elliott Wave report

Atlas Pearls Limited

Latest close AUD 0.085 Week ending 18 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

The wave count points to a decline

The selected pattern describes a move downward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

74/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Triggered Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countHurst crest risk

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings support this direction

5 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 2 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

Main uncertaintyHigh count stability

The leading count changed 1 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in AUD · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-09-290.05830.02880.0207
2023-10-060.05750.030.021
2023-10-130.06050.03130.0214
2023-10-200.0680.03290.0218
2023-10-270.07470.03470.0222
2023-11-030.07250.03640.0226
2023-11-100.06950.0380.023
2023-11-170.05830.03910.0233
2023-11-240.06880.04060.0237
2023-12-010.06580.0420.0241
2023-12-080.09340.04430.0247
2023-12-150.11580.04730.0254
2023-12-220.11580.05040.026
2023-12-290.13830.05420.0268
2024-01-050.12710.05770.0276
2024-01-120.12330.06090.0283
2024-01-190.1140.06370.029
2024-01-260.11580.06660.0297
2024-02-020.13450.07010.0305
2024-02-090.13830.07380.0313
2024-02-160.16070.07820.0323
2024-02-230.13080.08160.0331
2024-03-010.1420.08540.0339
2024-03-080.15790.08960.0349
2024-03-150.13760.09330.0357
2024-03-220.12140.09630.0364
2024-03-290.10930.09870.0371
2024-04-050.11740.10120.0378
2024-04-120.14170.10450.0386
2024-04-190.13760.10760.0395
2024-04-260.09720.10890.04
2024-05-030.0850.10980.0405
2024-05-100.08910.11070.041
2024-05-170.07850.11110.0414
2024-05-240.08910.11160.0419
2024-05-310.09310.11220.0424
2024-06-070.08910.11290.0429
2024-06-140.09310.11410.0435
2024-06-210.07690.11430.0439
2024-06-280.07370.11460.0443
2024-07-050.09310.11460.0448
2024-07-120.0810.11340.0453
2024-07-190.0810.11230.0457
2024-07-260.07850.11030.0461
2024-08-020.07850.10860.0465
2024-08-090.07690.10710.0469
2024-08-160.08020.1060.0473
2024-08-230.08910.10510.0477
2024-08-300.11740.10450.0484
2024-09-060.11340.10370.049
2024-09-130.1090.1020.0496
2024-09-200.10030.10090.0501
2024-09-270.10460.09970.0507
2024-10-040.11770.09840.0513
2024-10-110.12210.09780.052
2024-10-180.11340.09760.0526
2024-10-250.11340.09770.0532
2024-11-010.11770.09770.0538
2024-11-080.12640.09720.0545
2024-11-150.13520.09710.0552
2024-11-220.13520.09840.056
2024-11-290.13950.10020.0567
2024-12-060.14820.10220.0575
2024-12-130.13950.10420.0583
2024-12-200.13080.10560.059
2024-12-270.12430.10660.0597
2025-01-030.12640.10790.0603
2025-01-100.1330.10920.061
2025-01-170.12860.11090.0617
2025-01-240.12640.11270.0623
2025-01-310.13080.11390.063
2025-02-070.13080.11560.0637
2025-02-140.13080.11730.0643
2025-02-210.12210.11870.0649
2025-02-280.12640.12030.0655
2025-03-070.13920.12240.0662
2025-03-140.12530.12390.0667
2025-03-210.12530.12510.0673
2025-03-280.12530.12540.0679
2025-04-040.12070.12560.0684
2025-04-110.12070.1260.069
2025-04-180.13460.12710.0696
2025-04-250.13460.12810.0703
2025-05-020.12530.12840.0709
2025-05-090.12990.12870.0715
2025-05-160.13460.12940.0722
2025-05-230.12990.12990.0729
2025-05-300.12990.13030.0735
2025-06-060.14160.13080.0743
2025-06-130.12990.13070.075
2025-06-200.13920.13080.0757
2025-06-270.15320.13120.0765
2025-07-040.15320.13140.0773
2025-07-110.14390.13160.0781
2025-07-180.14390.1320.0789
2025-07-250.15320.1330.0797
2025-08-010.14850.13370.0805
2025-08-080.14850.13420.0813
2025-08-150.15320.1350.0821
2025-08-220.15780.13610.083
2025-08-290.18560.13790.084
2025-09-050.170.13920.0849
2025-09-120.180.14080.0859
2025-09-190.1750.14260.0869
2025-09-260.190.14470.088
2025-10-030.200.14680.0891
2025-10-100.1850.14870.0901
2025-10-170.190.15090.0912
2025-10-240.190.15310.0922
2025-10-310.1850.15520.0932
2025-11-070.1850.15730.0942
2025-11-140.200.15950.0954
2025-11-210.180.1610.0964
2025-11-280.180.16290.0974
2025-12-050.1850.16470.0985
2025-12-120.1950.16670.0996
2025-12-190.200.1690.1007
2025-12-260.1950.17120.1019
2026-01-020.200.17320.103
2026-01-090.1850.1750.1041
2026-01-160.190.17670.1052
2026-01-230.1850.17780.1063
2026-01-300.180.17860.1073
2026-02-060.18750.18010.1084
2026-02-130.190.18160.1095
2026-02-200.1850.18270.1106
2026-02-270.1150.18160.1112
2026-03-060.1250.18080.1119
2026-03-130.1250.17990.1125
2026-03-200.110.17830.1131
2026-03-270.100.17540.1136
2026-04-030.1050.17320.1142
2026-04-100.110.17090.1147
2026-04-170.0990.16840.1152
2026-04-240.1050.16560.1157
2026-05-010.100.16220.1162
2026-05-080.10250.15950.1167
2026-05-150.1050.15660.1172
2026-05-220.100.15360.1177
2026-05-290.0980.15070.1182
2026-06-050.0940.14770.1186
2026-06-120.0940.14420.1191
2026-06-190.090.14120.1195
2026-06-260.0820.13790.1198
2026-07-030.0820.13450.1201
2026-07-100.0850.13080.1205
2026-07-170.0970.12740.1209
2026-07-240.0930.1240.1213
2026-07-310.08850.12030.1217
2026-08-070.08570.11690.1221
2026-08-140.08760.11350.1225
2026-08-210.08660.11020.1228
2026-08-280.08950.10720.1232
2026-09-040.0910.1040.1235
2026-09-110.0850.10050.1237
2026-09-180.0850.09720.124
4-week return -1.9%
13-week return -5.6%
26-week return -22.7%
52-week return -51.4%
From 52-week high -62.2%
26-week volatility 38.7%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 11.9% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 2 crestPrimary swing size · Leading4%
Five-wave decline matureTactical swing size90%
Possible Wave 2 troughStrategic swing size6%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Possible bearish Wave 2 crest

4% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 0.085 Fails above 0.097 Count stability High · 84/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 0.097; Wave 2 0.085.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 0% of Wave 1.
Strategic degreePossible Wave 2 trough

Strategic degree uses a 19.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Primary degree uses a 11.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreeFive-wave decline mature

Tactical degree uses a 8.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 0.0%

1 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.082

Pivot from 2026-07-03

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.097

Pivot from 2026-07-17

30-week trend 0.0972

Price is -12.5% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.124

Price is -31.4% from Fair Value

52-week range position 4%

0.079 low · 0.225 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

5 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 2 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

71% directional agreement

The other readings support this direction. 5 readings support the selected direction; 2 lean against it.

Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

12.5% below trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Troughing
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are weakening together.

Falling Stack
Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-37.1
Market activity

Participation is weak

-19.5
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+0.9
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-54.1
Balance of readings Defensive

2 constructive, 5 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is weak. This supports the downward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark. This supports the downward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is negative. This supports the downward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is near a low and starting to turn. Look for price to confirm an upswing.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 38/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseTroughing

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementFalling Stack

25/100 constructive · 75/100 risk

Estimated next low4 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high13 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 8w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score38/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough4w
Possible next low1–7w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score21/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough11w
Possible next low1–7w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 30w
Current phaseTroughing
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough19w
Possible next low0–23w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 96w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough56w
Possible next low13–67w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 57.5% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 62.2% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 75/100.

  • Count instability

    The primary interpretation has high recent stability.

Downside risk check

Contained

13/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover0/15
Multi-cycle risk11/15
Count instability2/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.079
52-week high0.225
Annualised volatility38.7%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range3.7%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-57.5%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume106%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Most analysed peers have an upward wave count. That contrasts with this report’s downward interpretation.

58% constructive

14 of 24 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

4% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^AXJOMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks55652%0.3%-0.2%-11.7% to 14.2%
13 weeks21348%-1.1%-2.1%-20.7% to 21.4%
26 weeks11944%-2.6%-4.1%-30.6% to 33.3%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +6.2% across 45 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

46 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
6.2%
13w
17.7%
26w
61.3%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 45 60% 6.2% -20.0% to 49.5%
13 weeks 36 58% 17.7% -29.0% to 68.6%
26 weeks 28 75% 61.3% -26.5% to 183.5%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-18 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 11.9% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2024-08-09 Confirmed Low 0.0769 -17.4% 5 weeks
2024-08-30 Confirmed High 0.1174 52.6% 3 weeks
2024-09-20 Confirmed Low 0.1003 -14.6% 3 weeks
2024-12-06 Confirmed High 0.1482 47.8% 11 weeks
2025-02-21 Confirmed Low 0.1221 -17.6% 11 weeks
2025-03-07 Confirmed High 0.1392 14.1% 2 weeks
2025-04-11 Confirmed Low 0.1207 -13.3% 5 weeks
2026-01-02 Confirmed High 0.20 65.7% 38 weeks
2026-07-03 Confirmed Low 0.082 -59.0% 26 weeks
2026-07-17 Confirmed High 0.097 18.3% 2 weeks
2026-09-11 Confirmed Low 0.085 -12.4% 8 weeks
2026-09-18 Forming High 0.085 0.0% 1 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context