STO · Healthcare · Weekly analysis

MAGLE Elliott Wave report

Magle Chemoswed Holding AB (publ)

Latest close SEK 0.37 Week ending 4 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

The five-wave move is mature

The count describes a move that may be nearing its end. Watch for a confirmed reversal; maturity alone does not mean price has turned.

95/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Mature / manage risk Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countFive-wave decline mature

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsCheck whether the move is losing support

0 readings are positive, 7 are negative and 0 are neutral. They describe current direction, not whether a mature move has finished.

Main uncertaintyHigh count stability

The most recent swing is still forming and can extend. A settled label needs a confirmed reversal.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in SEK · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-09-1531.8030.9930.87
2023-09-2231.8031.2030.89
2023-09-2933.2031.4930.93
2023-10-0629.6031.6330.93
2023-10-1328.0031.7230.91
2023-10-2027.8031.7530.88
2023-10-2726.2031.6030.85
2023-11-0325.6031.4530.82
2023-11-1022.6031.2730.75
2023-11-1725.2031.1230.70
2023-11-2423.8030.9130.65
2023-12-0124.2030.6930.59
2023-12-0824.6030.4330.53
2023-12-1524.8030.0930.49
2023-12-2225.0029.7930.38
2023-12-2925.2029.5730.25
2024-01-0525.2029.2830.15
2024-01-1226.2029.0630.07
2024-01-1926.2028.8429.98
2024-01-2625.4028.6729.92
2024-02-0225.8028.4329.83
2024-02-0925.0028.2129.72
2024-02-1628.0027.9729.65
2024-02-2326.4027.6929.57
2024-03-0125.6027.3929.47
2024-03-0825.4027.1129.35
2024-03-1528.0027.0029.26
2024-03-2229.2026.9529.19
2024-03-2932.2026.9929.12
2024-04-0533.6027.0529.08
2024-04-1233.2027.1029.05
2024-04-1931.0027.0729.00
2024-04-2630.0026.9728.92
2024-05-0332.0027.0528.87
2024-05-1032.0027.1828.83
2024-05-1732.2027.3328.81
2024-05-2433.4027.5728.76
2024-05-3133.8027.8428.74
2024-06-0734.2028.2328.72
2024-06-1433.4028.5028.69
2024-06-2139.6029.0328.70
2024-06-2842.4029.6328.73
2024-07-0540.8030.1728.74
2024-07-1240.4030.6928.76
2024-07-1944.4031.3428.79
2024-07-2645.0032.0028.84
2024-08-0241.0032.5328.85
2024-08-0940.2032.9928.87
2024-08-1640.4033.4728.90
2024-08-2338.2033.8928.91
2024-08-3038.6034.3228.93
2024-09-0637.6034.7428.95
2024-09-1337.8035.0728.96
2024-09-2039.2035.4928.97
2024-09-2738.6035.9328.99
2024-10-0441.2036.4529.05
2024-10-1133.8036.6529.06
2024-10-1835.0036.8429.08
2024-10-2537.6037.0229.13
2024-11-0137.0037.1329.19
2024-11-0835.8037.2229.22
2024-11-1533.8037.3129.25
2024-11-2232.4737.4029.27
2024-11-2933.2037.4429.32
2024-12-0634.4037.5229.36
2024-12-1333.0037.5429.40
2024-12-2034.0037.5629.45
2024-12-2733.2037.5429.47
2025-01-0336.8037.6329.51
2025-01-1037.4037.7629.56
2025-01-1736.0037.6429.61
2025-01-2433.0037.3329.66
2025-01-3132.4037.0529.70
2025-02-0733.0036.8029.76
2025-02-1434.0036.4629.81
2025-02-2133.8036.0829.86
2025-02-2831.2035.7629.90
2025-03-0732.0035.4829.93
2025-03-1431.4035.1829.94
2025-03-2131.0034.9429.96
2025-03-2830.0034.6629.97
2025-04-0426.4034.2829.96
2025-04-1127.2033.9329.96
2025-04-1828.6033.5829.97
2025-04-2528.4033.2429.98
2025-05-0226.4032.7430.00
2025-05-0928.4032.5630.04
2025-05-1626.2032.2730.07
2025-05-2326.0031.8830.09
2025-05-3027.4031.5630.12
2025-06-0627.8031.3030.16
2025-06-1326.8031.0630.20
2025-06-2027.8030.9130.25
2025-06-2726.0030.6730.29
2025-07-0427.2030.4330.33
2025-07-1125.8030.1930.36
2025-07-1825.8029.9130.39
2025-07-2526.2029.6830.42
2025-08-0120.6029.1430.41
2025-08-0820.0028.5630.39
2025-08-1519.0027.9930.32
2025-08-2223.0027.6630.28
2025-08-2922.0027.3130.24
2025-09-0521.6026.9330.21
2025-09-1221.6026.5230.19
2025-09-1919.7026.0530.15
2025-09-2619.3025.6530.12
2025-10-0319.3025.2330.08
2025-10-1020.0024.8530.05
2025-10-1719.8024.4830.01
2025-10-2419.2024.1229.96
2025-10-3119.0023.8729.91
2025-11-0719.1023.6029.86
2025-11-1419.0023.2829.81
2025-11-2118.5022.9529.76
2025-11-2817.8022.6629.70
2025-12-0517.4022.3029.64
2025-12-1216.5021.9729.56
2025-12-1917.1021.6829.51
2025-12-2617.2021.3429.45
2026-01-0217.1020.9829.38
2026-01-0917.0020.6529.32
2026-01-1616.5020.2829.25
2026-01-2313.2019.8529.17
2026-01-3010.9019.3129.08
2026-02-0611.7018.8428.99
2026-02-1310.9018.3428.90
2026-02-209.0017.7728.79
2026-02-278.0017.3528.68
2026-03-067.8016.9428.57
2026-03-137.5516.5628.46
2026-03-208.2516.0728.34
2026-03-273.9615.4728.17
2026-04-034.2014.8928.00
2026-04-104.4614.3127.85
2026-04-174.1413.8027.69
2026-04-244.7013.3127.52
2026-05-014.5012.8227.36
2026-05-084.2212.2927.17
2026-05-154.2211.7726.98
2026-05-224.2211.2726.79
2026-05-293.5010.7526.60
2026-06-053.3810.2326.41
2026-06-121.679.6526.21
2026-06-191.009.0726.01
2026-06-261.018.5125.82
2026-07-031.007.9625.61
2026-07-101.017.4525.42
2026-07-171.006.9125.20
2026-07-241.046.3724.98
2026-07-310.515.8224.76
2026-08-070.485.2724.55
2026-08-140.494.7324.35
2026-08-210.424.3124.16
2026-08-280.3643.9623.96
2026-09-040.373.5823.76
4-week return -22.9%
13-week return -89.1%
26-week return -95.3%
52-week return -98.3%
From 52-week high -98.4%
26-week volatility 132.1%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 11.6% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Five-wave decline maturePrimary swing size · Leading87%
Possible bearish Wave 3 decliningPrimary swing size8%
A/B/C reset may be completingPrimary swing size5%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Five-wave decline mature

87% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 0.37 Fails above 4.70 Count stability High · 100/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 37.40; Wave 2 23.00.
PassWave 3 exceeds Wave 1Wave 1 19.00; Wave 3 3.96.
PassWave 4 does not overlap Wave 1Wave 1 boundary 19.00; Wave 4 4.70.
PassWave 3 is not the shortest motive waveMotive lengths: 18.40, 19.04, 4.33.
PassWave 5 makes motive progressWave 3 3.96; Wave 5 0.37.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 22% of Wave 1.
GuidelineWave 3 extension is plausibleWave 3 is 1.03× Wave 1.
GuidelineWave 4 retracement is proportionateRetraced 4% of Wave 3.
GuidelineWaves 2 and 4 show temporal alternationWave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.
Strategic degreeFive-wave decline mature

Strategic degree uses a 18.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreeFive-wave decline mature

Primary degree uses a 11.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreeFive-wave decline mature

Tactical degree uses a 8.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing -92.1%

19 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support -

No lower pivot in the current window

Nearest confirmed resistance 4.70

Pivot from 2026-04-24

30-week trend 3.58

Price is -89.7% from trend

Fair Value reference 23.76

Price is -98.4% from Fair Value

52-week range position 0%

0.308 low · 22.80 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

0 readings are positive, 7 are negative and 0 are neutral. They describe current direction, not whether a mature move has finished.

100% directional agreement

Check whether the move is losing support.

Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

89.7% below trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is not rising.

Falling
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are weakening together.

Falling Stack
Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-96.6
Market activity

Participation is weak

-75.5
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-0.0
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-96.8
Balance of readings Defensive

0 constructive, 7 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is weak.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is negative.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is weak.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is falling. A recovery in price needs support from the other readings.

Cycle repeat scores range from 46 to 76/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseFalling

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementFalling Stack

0/100 constructive · 100/100 risk

Estimated next low7 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high11 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 12w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score60/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough16w
Possible next low7–9w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score76/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough38w
Possible next low3–11w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 46w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score62/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough19w
Possible next low22–32w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 60w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score46/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough9w
Possible next low26–76w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 99.2% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 98.4% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Wave maturity

    A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving.

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 100/100.

  • Cycle rollover

    Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.

Downside risk check

Elevated vulnerability

51/100
Wave maturity25/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover11/15
Multi-cycle risk15/15
Count instability0/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.308
52-week high22.80
Annualised volatility132.1%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range23.3%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-99.2%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume244%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

46% constructive

11 of 24 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

71% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^OMXMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks49551%0.6%-0.1%-13.5% to 16.8%
13 weeks18855%2.2%-0.7%-24.0% to 28.2%
26 weeks11147%-0.9%-4.0%-32.0% to 36.2%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was -4.5% across 102 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

103 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
-4.5%
13w
-19.4%
26w
-35.4%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 102 31% -4.5% -76.3% to 44.2%
13 weeks 93 20% -19.4% -90.1% to 33.3%
26 weeks 80 25% -35.4% -95.9% to 77.2%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-04 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 11.6% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2023-05-19 Confirmed High 35.20 43.1% 34 weeks
2023-06-30 Confirmed Low 30.60 -13.1% 6 weeks
2023-07-21 Confirmed High 35.20 15.0% 3 weeks
2023-11-10 Confirmed Low 22.60 -35.8% 16 weeks
2024-07-26 Confirmed High 45.00 99.1% 37 weeks
2024-11-22 Confirmed Low 32.47 -27.8% 17 weeks
2025-01-10 Confirmed High 37.40 15.2% 7 weeks
2025-08-15 Confirmed Low 19.00 -49.2% 31 weeks
2025-08-22 Confirmed High 23.00 21.1% 1 weeks
2026-03-27 Confirmed Low 3.96 -82.8% 31 weeks
2026-04-24 Confirmed High 4.70 18.7% 4 weeks
2026-09-04 Forming Low 0.37 -92.1% 19 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context