LSE · Consumer Cyclical · Weekly analysis

AURR Elliott Wave report

Aurrigo International plc

Latest close GBP 1.16 Week ending 11 Sep 2026 History 209 weeks
Current reading

A rebound is being tested

The wave pattern treats the recent rise as a rebound within a larger decline. A fresh fall is still something to confirm.

44/100 Setup score 93/100 Data quality Watching Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countBearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

A, B and C label a three-part correction. The outlined last point is still forming.

Other readingsThe other readings point the other way

7 of 7 available readings lean against the downward wave interpretation; 0 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

Main uncertaintyLow count stability

The leading count changed 4 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in GBP · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-09-221.301.321.08
2023-09-291.221.321.08
2023-10-061.651.331.09
2023-10-131.621.341.10
2023-10-201.621.351.11
2023-10-271.621.361.12
2023-11-031.621.371.13
2023-11-101.581.371.14
2023-11-171.021.361.14
2023-11-241.051.351.13
2023-12-011.051.341.13
2023-12-081.051.341.13
2023-12-150.901.321.13
2023-12-220.8751.301.12
2023-12-290.901.291.12
2024-01-050.901.281.12
2024-01-120.901.261.11
2024-01-190.9251.251.11
2024-01-260.9251.241.11
2024-02-020.9251.221.11
2024-02-091.001.211.11
2024-02-161.001.201.10
2024-02-230.991.191.10
2024-03-010.9151.181.10
2024-03-080.9251.161.10
2024-03-150.9251.151.10
2024-03-221.021.141.09
2024-03-290.951.131.09
2024-04-050.9251.121.09
2024-04-120.951.111.09
2024-04-190.951.101.09
2024-04-260.9851.091.09
2024-05-030.9851.071.09
2024-05-101.011.051.08
2024-05-171.041.031.08
2024-05-241.041.011.08
2024-05-311.040.98851.08
2024-06-071.020.96981.08
2024-06-140.9750.96821.08
2024-06-210.930.96421.08
2024-06-280.9350.96031.08
2024-07-050.7650.95081.07
2024-07-120.7750.94671.07
2024-07-190.7750.94331.07
2024-07-260.7750.93921.07
2024-08-020.7750.9351.06
2024-08-090.7750.93081.06
2024-08-160.7750.92581.06
2024-08-230.7750.92081.05
2024-08-300.800.91671.05
2024-09-060.7750.90921.05
2024-09-130.7250.901.05
2024-09-200.750.8921.04
2024-09-270.7750.88731.04
2024-10-040.7750.88231.04
2024-10-110.7750.87731.04
2024-10-180.7750.8691.03
2024-10-250.6950.86051.03
2024-11-010.6250.85051.03
2024-11-080.6250.83971.02
2024-11-150.6250.82881.02
2024-11-220.5250.81351.02
2024-11-290.5050.79751.01
2024-12-060.5050.78071.01
2024-12-130.4650.76151.00
2024-12-200.4450.74170.9972
2024-12-270.4450.72180.9926
2025-01-030.4450.70280.9881
2025-01-100.470.6860.9838
2025-01-170.470.67070.9796
2025-01-240.470.65520.9755
2025-01-310.470.64530.9715
2025-02-070.4750.63530.9675
2025-02-140.4750.62530.9637
2025-02-210.4750.61530.9598
2025-02-280.4750.60530.9561
2025-03-070.4750.59530.9524
2025-03-140.4650.5850.9487
2025-03-210.430.57350.9447
2025-03-280.410.56050.9407
2025-04-040.4350.54920.9369
2025-04-110.450.540.9333
2025-04-180.4650.53050.9299
2025-04-250.4650.52020.9265
2025-05-020.8150.52150.9257
2025-05-090.7350.52020.9243
2025-05-160.660.51630.9224
2025-05-230.820.52050.9217
2025-05-301.000.5330.9223
2025-06-060.900.54220.9221
2025-06-130.950.5530.9223
2025-06-200.950.56720.9225
2025-06-270.940.58170.9226
2025-07-040.940.59620.9227
2025-07-111.020.61480.9234
2025-07-180.940.63130.9235
2025-07-250.730.64080.9222
2025-08-010.730.65030.921
2025-08-080.730.6590.9197
2025-08-150.4750.65920.9168
2025-08-220.480.65950.914
2025-08-290.510.66080.9114
2025-09-050.450.660.9084
2025-09-120.460.65950.9075
2025-09-190.4350.65820.9067
2025-09-260.4150.65620.9058
2025-10-030.440.6550.9051
2025-10-100.440.65420.9043
2025-10-170.4750.65570.9038
2025-10-240.560.66070.9023
2025-10-310.550.66450.9008
2025-11-070.540.66750.8991
2025-11-140.560.67070.8978
2025-11-210.6850.6780.8972
2025-11-280.6750.67330.8968
2025-12-050.6750.67130.8963
2025-12-120.800.6760.8967
2025-12-190.7850.67480.8972
2025-12-260.8150.66870.898
2026-01-020.8250.66620.8986
2026-01-090.830.66220.899
2026-01-160.830.65820.8993
2026-01-230.830.65450.8997
2026-01-300.9250.6540.899
2026-02-060.8750.6490.897
2026-02-130.900.64770.8954
2026-02-200.8750.65250.8922
2026-02-270.8750.65730.8892
2026-03-060.8750.66220.8861
2026-03-130.8750.67550.8832
2026-03-200.8350.68730.8799
2026-03-270.820.69770.8765
2026-04-030.820.710.8731
2026-04-100.820.7220.8697
2026-04-170.790.73380.8662
2026-04-240.7750.74580.8626
2026-05-010.710.75480.8587
2026-05-080.6750.76270.8545
2026-05-150.710.77050.8503
2026-05-220.710.77550.8463
2026-05-290.7250.78130.8425
2026-06-050.7250.78750.8386
2026-06-120.730.79320.8348
2026-06-190.710.7940.8309
2026-06-260.6850.79430.8268
2026-07-030.6850.79470.8227
2026-07-100.6850.79080.8186
2026-07-170.6750.78720.8144
2026-07-240.6850.78280.8103
2026-07-310.6850.77820.8062
2026-08-070.6950.77370.8025
2026-08-140.7150.76980.7989
2026-08-210.8250.76970.796
2026-08-280.9150.76930.7937
2026-09-041.020.77430.7919
2026-09-111.160.7830.791
4-week return 62.2%
13-week return 58.9%
26-week return 32.6%
52-week return 152.2%
From 52-week high -3.3%
26-week volatility 40.9%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 7.9% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completingPrimary swing size · Leading34%
Possible Wave 3 advancingPrimary swing size32%
Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completingStrategic swing size34%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

34% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 0.675 Fails above 1.16 Count stability Low · 36/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave B protects the correction originOrigin 0.415; Wave B 0.675.
PassWave C progresses beyond Wave AA length 0.51; C length 0.48.
GuidelineWave C is proportionate to Wave AWave C is 0.95× Wave A.
Strategic degreeBearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

Strategic degree uses a 12.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreeBearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

Primary degree uses a 7.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreeNo valid count

Tactical degree uses a 5.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 71.9%

18 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.675

Pivot from 2026-05-08

Nearest confirmed resistance -

Price is above prior confirmed highs

30-week trend 0.783

Price is 48.1% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.791

Price is 46.6% from Fair Value

52-week range position 95%

0.401 low · 1.20 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

7 of 7 available readings lean against the downward wave interpretation; 0 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

100% directional agreement

The other readings point the other way. 0 readings support the selected direction; 7 lean against it.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

48.1% above trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Rising
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are improving together.

Rising Stack
Relative strength

Outperforming its benchmark

+51.4
Market activity

Participation is supportive

+64.8
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+1.2
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+28.9
Balance of readings Constructive

7 constructive, 0 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Outperforming its benchmark. This challenges the downward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is positive. This challenges the downward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is rising. That supports the recent upswing, but it does not establish how long it will last.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 21/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseRising

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementRising Stack

100/100 constructive · 0/100 risk

Estimated next low17 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high12 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 8w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough8w
Possible next low6–10w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 25w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough8w
Possible next low7–27w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 38w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score21/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough4w
Possible next low21–47w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 87w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score21/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough3w
Possible next low64–104w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 29.7% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 3.3% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Trend extension

    Price is 48.1% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.

  • Range position

    Price is 95% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.

  • Count instability

    The primary interpretation has low recent stability.

Downside risk check

Watch

38/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension20/20
Range position12/15
Cycle rollover0/15
Multi-cycle risk0/15
Count instability6/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.401
52-week high1.20
Annualised volatility40.9%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range8.0%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-29.7%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume631%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Most analysed peers have an upward wave count. That contrasts with this report’s downward interpretation.

79% constructive

19 of 24 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

21% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^FTSEMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks59046%-0.8%-1.1%-10.5% to 9.3%
13 weeks23349%-0.1%-2.7%-21.5% to 17.3%
26 weeks14145%-1.7%-4.9%-28.2% to 23.9%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +0.0% across 33 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

33 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
0.0%
13w
-18.9%
26w
-16.0%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 33 49% 0.0% -49.5% to 43.9%
13 weeks 33 18% -18.9% -57.1% to 29.6%
26 weeks 31 23% -16.0% -35.9% to 26.7%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality93/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
80/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-11 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 7.9% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2024-04-05 Confirmed Low 0.925 -9.8% 2 weeks
2024-05-31 Confirmed High 1.04 12.4% 8 weeks
2025-03-28 Confirmed Low 0.41 -60.6% 43 weeks
2025-05-02 Confirmed High 0.815 98.8% 5 weeks
2025-05-16 Confirmed Low 0.66 -19.0% 2 weeks
2025-05-30 Confirmed High 1.00 51.5% 2 weeks
2025-06-06 Confirmed Low 0.90 -10.0% 1 weeks
2025-07-11 Confirmed High 1.02 13.9% 5 weeks
2025-09-26 Confirmed Low 0.415 -59.5% 11 weeks
2026-01-30 Confirmed High 0.925 122.9% 18 weeks
2026-05-08 Confirmed Low 0.675 -27.0% 14 weeks
2026-09-11 Forming High 1.16 71.9% 18 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context