HKG · Utilities · Weekly analysis

2281 Elliott Wave report

Luzhou Xinglu Water (Group) Co., Ltd.

Latest close HKD 0.595 Week ending 11 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

A pullback is being tested

The wave pattern treats the recent decline as a pullback within a larger advance. A fresh rise is still something to confirm.

50/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Watching Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countA/B/C reset may be completing

A, B and C label a three-part correction. The outlined last point is still forming.

Other readingsThe other readings point the other way

7 of 7 available readings lean against the upward wave interpretation; 0 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

Main uncertaintyModerate count stability

The leading count changed 3 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in HKD · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-09-220.5310.61020.7062
2023-09-290.51390.60320.7044
2023-10-060.52240.59660.7026
2023-10-130.49680.590.7006
2023-10-200.5310.58460.6989
2023-10-270.51390.57960.6971
2023-11-030.50530.57440.6954
2023-11-100.51390.56990.6937
2023-11-170.50530.56570.692
2023-11-240.51390.56310.6905
2023-12-010.50530.55920.6888
2023-12-080.50530.55550.6874
2023-12-150.48820.55210.686
2023-12-220.49680.54890.6845
2023-12-290.51390.54660.6831
2024-01-050.52240.54480.6818
2024-01-120.51390.54270.6805
2024-01-190.49680.54060.6791
2024-01-260.49680.53870.6778
2024-02-020.50530.53560.6765
2024-02-090.50530.53220.6751
2024-02-160.51390.52930.6736
2024-02-230.51390.52640.6721
2024-03-010.47960.52240.6704
2024-03-080.49680.51930.6689
2024-03-150.51390.51620.6671
2024-03-220.50530.5130.6656
2024-03-290.50530.51070.6639
2024-04-050.51390.5090.6623
2024-04-120.47110.5070.6603
2024-04-190.47110.5050.6583
2024-04-260.47110.50360.6561
2024-05-030.50530.5030.6545
2024-05-100.51390.50360.6531
2024-05-170.57380.5050.6518
2024-05-240.54810.50620.6504
2024-05-310.55670.50790.649
2024-06-070.55670.50930.6479
2024-06-140.54810.51070.6465
2024-06-210.53960.51160.6449
2024-06-280.53960.51270.643
2024-07-050.56060.51460.6411
2024-07-120.55130.51670.6391
2024-07-190.54190.51820.6369
2024-07-260.55130.51940.6348
2024-08-020.55130.52040.6326
2024-08-090.53260.5210.6304
2024-08-160.56060.52310.6283
2024-08-230.57930.52590.6265
2024-08-300.57930.52840.6248
2024-09-060.56060.53020.6228
2024-09-130.54190.53110.6207
2024-09-200.55130.53240.619
2024-09-270.58860.5360.6175
2024-10-040.6260.54030.616
2024-10-110.6260.54410.6147
2024-10-180.61670.54780.6133
2024-10-250.60730.55120.6118
2024-11-010.57930.55340.6102
2024-11-080.58860.55730.6087
2024-11-150.57930.56090.6071
2024-11-220.56060.56390.6058
2024-11-290.56060.56570.6044
2024-12-060.57930.56790.6033
2024-12-130.56060.56740.6021
2024-12-200.56060.56790.6009
2024-12-270.56060.5680.5999
2025-01-030.57930.56870.5986
2025-01-100.56060.56920.5973
2025-01-170.56060.56990.5965
2025-01-240.55130.57030.5957
2025-01-310.55130.56990.595
2025-02-070.56060.57030.5943
2025-02-140.56990.57120.5937
2025-02-210.56060.57150.5931
2025-02-280.56060.57180.5925
2025-03-070.5980.5740.5922
2025-03-140.58860.57490.5917
2025-03-210.5980.57550.5913
2025-03-280.5980.57620.5909
2025-04-040.56060.57620.5902
2025-04-110.53260.57590.5894
2025-04-180.56060.57620.5889
2025-04-250.56060.57520.5886
2025-05-020.56060.57310.5882
2025-05-090.56060.57090.588
2025-05-160.56060.5690.5877
2025-05-230.55130.56710.5874
2025-05-300.56060.56650.5869
2025-06-060.56990.56590.5863
2025-06-130.5980.56650.5858
2025-06-200.60730.56810.5854
2025-06-270.6260.57030.5853
2025-07-040.63530.57210.5851
2025-07-110.630.57440.5848
2025-07-180.630.57670.585
2025-07-250.680.58070.5854
2025-08-010.710.58510.5859
2025-08-080.760.59170.5866
2025-08-150.780.5990.5876
2025-08-220.770.60630.5886
2025-08-290.760.61330.5891
2025-09-050.740.61930.5895
2025-09-120.790.62660.5903
2025-09-190.770.63360.5909
2025-09-260.760.64020.5914
2025-10-030.790.64660.5921
2025-10-100.790.65340.5928
2025-10-170.780.65940.5935
2025-10-240.780.66550.5944
2025-10-310.800.67350.5954
2025-11-070.780.68170.5961
2025-11-140.770.68870.5967
2025-11-210.740.69470.5973
2025-11-280.760.70130.5981
2025-12-050.750.70760.5986
2025-12-120.740.71360.599
2025-12-190.750.72020.5995
2025-12-260.730.72590.5999
2026-01-020.740.73160.6002
2026-01-090.730.7360.6004
2026-01-160.750.74070.6007
2026-01-230.740.74450.6008
2026-01-300.790.74970.6012
2026-02-060.780.75470.6015
2026-02-130.770.75930.6019
2026-02-200.780.76270.6024
2026-02-270.800.76570.6028
2026-03-060.790.76670.6033
2026-03-130.820.7680.6041
2026-03-200.830.770.605
2026-03-270.780.77070.6057
2026-04-030.670.76830.6058
2026-04-100.690.7650.606
2026-04-170.700.76270.6065
2026-04-240.660.75930.6069
2026-05-010.690.7560.6073
2026-05-080.710.75330.6079
2026-05-150.680.750.6085
2026-05-220.690.7470.6091
2026-05-290.690.74330.6098
2026-06-050.64330.73880.6103
2026-06-120.65260.73490.6107
2026-06-190.64330.73160.6113
2026-06-260.62470.72710.6117
2026-07-030.62470.7230.6119
2026-07-100.610.71860.6119
2026-07-170.640.7150.6122
2026-07-240.630.71160.6124
2026-07-310.630.7080.6126
2026-08-070.640.7050.6129
2026-08-140.630.7010.613
2026-08-210.610.69660.6131
2026-08-280.610.69060.6133
2026-09-040.590.68430.6135
2026-09-110.5950.67850.6139
4-week return -5.6%
13-week return -8.8%
26-week return -27.4%
52-week return -24.7%
From 52-week high -32.4%
26-week volatility 28.7%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 5.2% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

A/B/C reset may be completingPrimary swing size · Leading41%
Possible bearish Wave 3 decliningPrimary swing size29%
Possible bearish Wave 3 decliningTactical swing size29%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

A/B/C reset may be completing

41% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm above 0.71 Fails below 0.595 Count stability Moderate · 52/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave B protects the correction originOrigin 0.83; Wave B 0.71.
PassWave C progresses beyond Wave AA length 0.17; C length 0.11.
GuidelineWave C is proportionate to Wave AWave C is 0.68× Wave A.
Strategic degreeNo valid count

Strategic degree uses a 8.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreeA/B/C reset may be completing

Primary degree uses a 5.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible bearish Wave 3 declining

Tactical degree uses a 3.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing -16.2%

18 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.5326

Pivot from 2025-04-11

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.71

Pivot from 2026-05-08

30-week trend 0.6785

Price is -12.3% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.6139

Price is -3.1% from Fair Value

52-week range position 8%

0.57 low · 0.88 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

7 of 7 available readings lean against the upward wave interpretation; 0 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

100% directional agreement

The other readings point the other way. 0 readings support the selected direction; 7 lean against it.

Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

12.3% below trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is not rising.

Falling
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are weakening together.

Falling Stack
Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-13.7
Market activity

Participation is weak

-63.1
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-0.5
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-22.7
Balance of readings Defensive

0 constructive, 7 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is weak. This challenges the upward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark. This challenges the upward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is negative. This challenges the upward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is weak. This challenges the upward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is falling. A recovery in price needs support from the other readings.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 18/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseFalling

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementFalling Stack

0/100 constructive · 100/100 risk

Estimated next low11 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high16 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 8w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score10/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough9w
Possible next low4–10w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 20w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score18/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough9w
Possible next low7–15w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 30w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough9w
Possible next low11–31w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 60w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score4/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough27w
Possible next low10–56w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 33.6% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 32.4% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 100/100.

  • Cycle rollover

    Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.

  • Count instability

    The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability.

Downside risk check

Watch

31/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover11/15
Multi-cycle risk15/15
Count instability5/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.57
52-week high0.88
Annualised volatility28.7%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range3.6%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-33.6%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume450%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

35% constructive

8 of 23 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

35% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^HSIMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks54251%0.3%-0.1%-10.5% to 11.1%
13 weeks19646%-1.1%-0.2%-18.2% to 19.9%
26 weeks11350%1.1%0.5%-24.7% to 31.5%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +0.0% across 80 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

81 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
0.0%
13w
0.0%
26w
8.5%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 80 41% 0.0% -9.5% to 21.8%
13 weeks 71 42% 0.0% -18.3% to 39.7%
26 weeks 62 57% 8.5% -23.2% to 48.3%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-11 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 5.2% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2024-08-30 Confirmed High 0.5793 8.8% 3 weeks
2024-09-13 Confirmed Low 0.5419 -6.5% 2 weeks
2024-10-11 Confirmed High 0.626 15.5% 4 weeks
2025-01-31 Confirmed Low 0.5513 -11.9% 16 weeks
2025-03-28 Confirmed High 0.598 8.5% 8 weeks
2025-04-11 Confirmed Low 0.5326 -10.9% 2 weeks
2025-10-31 Confirmed High 0.80 50.2% 29 weeks
2026-01-09 Confirmed Low 0.73 -8.8% 10 weeks
2026-03-20 Confirmed High 0.83 13.7% 10 weeks
2026-04-24 Confirmed Low 0.66 -20.5% 5 weeks
2026-05-08 Confirmed High 0.71 7.6% 2 weeks
2026-09-11 Forming Low 0.595 -16.2% 18 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context