ASX · Communication Services · Weekly analysis

FLN Elliott Wave report

Freelancer Limited

Latest close AUD 0.12 Week ending 18 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

A pullback is being tested

The wave pattern treats the recent decline as a pullback within a larger advance. A fresh rise is still something to confirm.

71/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Watching Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countA/B/C reset may be completing

A, B and C label a three-part correction. The outlined last point is still forming.

Other readingsThe other readings are mixed

3 readings support the selected direction and 3 lean against it. There is no clear balance of support.

Main uncertaintyModerate count stability

The leading count changed 3 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in AUD · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-09-290.210.22420.4776
2023-10-060.210.22350.4758
2023-10-130.210.22320.474
2023-10-200.200.22250.472
2023-10-270.220.22270.4702
2023-11-030.240.22380.4686
2023-11-100.2150.22380.4668
2023-11-170.2450.22470.4648
2023-11-240.210.22420.4627
2023-12-010.210.22380.4608
2023-12-080.180.2220.459
2023-12-150.190.22070.4572
2023-12-220.190.21930.4553
2023-12-290.1850.21780.4533
2024-01-050.1850.21630.4513
2024-01-120.200.21630.4494
2024-01-190.200.21670.4474
2024-01-260.210.2160.4454
2024-02-020.1950.21530.4435
2024-02-090.210.21530.4416
2024-02-160.1950.21330.4396
2024-02-230.1850.2110.4375
2024-03-010.1750.20820.4356
2024-03-080.170.20530.4333
2024-03-150.1750.20280.4309
2024-03-220.2050.20250.428
2024-03-290.210.20230.4252
2024-04-050.2150.2020.4226
2024-04-120.210.20220.4197
2024-04-190.2050.2020.4151
2024-04-260.2050.20180.4106
2024-05-030.210.20180.405
2024-05-100.1950.20130.4002
2024-05-170.1950.20120.395
2024-05-240.190.20020.3892
2024-05-310.190.19850.3837
2024-06-070.210.19830.3779
2024-06-140.2050.1970.3712
2024-06-210.2050.19680.3653
2024-06-280.180.19580.359
2024-07-050.1850.1960.3536
2024-07-120.200.19630.3481
2024-07-190.1950.19650.3425
2024-07-260.200.1970.3377
2024-08-020.1850.1970.3331
2024-08-090.180.19630.3283
2024-08-160.170.19530.3238
2024-08-230.180.19430.3195
2024-08-300.180.19380.3157
2024-09-060.1850.1930.312
2024-09-130.180.19250.3086
2024-09-200.180.19230.3047
2024-09-270.1850.19270.3011
2024-10-040.180.1930.2976
2024-10-110.180.19320.2942
2024-10-180.1850.19250.2906
2024-10-250.190.19180.2871
2024-11-010.190.1910.2832
2024-11-080.180.190.2794
2024-11-150.1850.18930.2756
2024-11-220.170.18820.272
2024-11-290.160.18650.2688
2024-12-060.160.18530.2659
2024-12-130.160.18420.2634
2024-12-200.160.18320.2606
2024-12-270.160.18220.2581
2025-01-030.170.18080.2556
2025-01-100.1650.17950.2524
2025-01-170.170.17830.2493
2025-01-240.1650.17780.2466
2025-01-310.1650.17720.2443
2025-02-070.1750.17630.2419
2025-02-140.1650.17530.2394
2025-02-210.1650.17420.237
2025-02-280.160.17330.2347
2025-03-070.160.17270.2326
2025-03-140.160.17230.2304
2025-03-210.1750.17220.2285
2025-03-280.180.17220.2267
2025-04-040.1750.17180.225
2025-04-110.2050.17270.2235
2025-04-180.2150.17380.2222
2025-04-250.220.1750.2211
2025-05-020.210.1760.2201
2025-05-090.2050.17680.2191
2025-05-160.180.17670.2181
2025-05-230.1950.17680.2175
2025-05-300.1950.1770.2167
2025-06-060.210.1780.2163
2025-06-130.200.17850.2161
2025-06-200.210.17980.2158
2025-06-270.220.18180.2154
2025-07-040.270.18550.215
2025-07-110.260.18880.2147
2025-07-180.280.19280.2144
2025-07-250.270.19650.214
2025-08-010.2750.200.2134
2025-08-080.3050.20470.2132
2025-08-150.290.20870.213
2025-08-220.270.21220.2127
2025-08-290.2250.21420.2125
2025-09-050.2250.21580.2122
2025-09-120.240.21830.2121
2025-09-190.250.22120.212
2025-09-260.260.22450.2119
2025-10-030.2750.22830.212
2025-10-100.2450.23120.212
2025-10-170.240.23330.212
2025-10-240.220.23470.212
2025-10-310.230.23650.2119
2025-11-070.250.2380.2117
2025-11-140.2550.23930.2115
2025-11-210.2250.23950.2112
2025-11-280.240.24050.2108
2025-12-050.2250.24120.2106
2025-12-120.230.24280.2103
2025-12-190.240.24430.2102
2025-12-260.240.24580.2101
2026-01-020.240.24680.2101
2026-01-090.230.24780.21
2026-01-160.2250.24830.2097
2026-01-230.2250.24850.2095
2026-01-300.2150.24670.2092
2026-02-060.2050.24480.209
2026-02-130.220.24280.2088
2026-02-200.200.24050.2087
2026-02-270.200.2380.2086
2026-03-060.190.23420.2083
2026-03-130.1750.23030.208
2026-03-200.160.22670.2076
2026-03-270.150.22420.2072
2026-04-030.1550.22180.2069
2026-04-100.1350.21830.2064
2026-04-170.1250.21420.2058
2026-04-240.15250.21060.2053
2026-05-010.1450.20620.2048
2026-05-080.1350.20260.2042
2026-05-150.140.19920.2036
2026-05-220.130.19620.203
2026-05-290.1350.19310.2024
2026-06-050.1350.18920.2017
2026-06-120.140.18540.2014
2026-06-190.120.18190.2009
2026-06-260.1050.17740.2001
2026-07-030.1050.17340.1994
2026-07-100.1150.16960.1988
2026-07-170.100.16490.1978
2026-07-240.100.16020.1968
2026-07-310.1050.15580.1958
2026-08-070.1150.15190.1949
2026-08-140.140.14910.1942
2026-08-210.1450.14640.1938
2026-08-280.150.14420.1933
2026-09-040.1450.14220.1928
2026-09-110.130.13920.1924
2026-09-180.120.13660.1918
4-week return -17.2%
13-week return 0.0%
26-week return -25.0%
52-week return -52.0%
From 52-week high -56.4%
26-week volatility 68.1%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 14.5% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

A/B/C reset may be completingPrimary swing size · Leading42%
Possible Wave 2 troughPrimary swing size17%
A/B/C reset may be completingTactical swing size42%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

A/B/C reset may be completing

42% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm above 0.15 Fails below 0.12 Count stability Moderate · 52/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave B protects the correction originOrigin 0.1525; Wave B 0.15.
PassWave C progresses beyond Wave AA length 0.05; C length 0.03.
GuidelineWave C is proportionate to Wave AWave C is 0.57× Wave A.
Strategic degreeNo valid count

Strategic degree uses a 23.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreeA/B/C reset may be completing

Primary degree uses a 14.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreeA/B/C reset may be completing

Tactical degree uses a 10.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing -20.0%

3 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.10

Pivot from 2026-07-24

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.15

Pivot from 2026-08-28

30-week trend 0.1366

Price is -12.1% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.1918

Price is -37.4% from Fair Value

52-week range position 13%

0.097 low · 0.275 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

3 readings support the selected direction and 3 lean against it. There is no clear balance of support.

43% directional agreement

The other readings are mixed. 3 readings support the selected direction; 3 lean against it.

Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

12.1% below trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Rising
Cycle alignment

Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction.

Mixed
Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-31.9
Market activity

Participation is supportive

+14.6
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+1.0
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-40.0
Balance of readings Mixed

3 constructive, 3 weak and 1 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive. This supports the upward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark. This challenges the upward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is negative. This challenges the upward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive. This supports the upward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is rising. That supports the recent upswing, but it does not establish how long it will last.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 31/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseRising

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementMixed

50/100 constructive · 50/100 risk

Estimated next low7 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high5 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 12w
Current phaseCresting
Repeat score31/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough8w
Possible next low0–8w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w
Current phaseCresting
Repeat score26/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough8w
Possible next low3–11w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 30w
Current phaseTroughing
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough7w
Possible next low15–31w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 79w
Current phaseTroughing
Repeat score13/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough5w
Possible next low45–103w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 90.4% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 56.4% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 50/100.

  • Count instability

    The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability.

Downside risk check

Contained

13/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover0/15
Multi-cycle risk8/15
Count instability5/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.097
52-week high0.275
Annualised volatility68.1%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range5.8%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-90.4%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume31%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

46% constructive

11 of 24 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

38% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^AXJOMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks19347%-0.2%-0.9%-10.7% to 13.7%
13 weeks11053%0.7%-1.8%-25.5% to 23.6%
26 weeks8753%1.8%-0.2%-28.9% to 35.8%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was -3.4% across 66 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

67 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
-3.4%
13w
-5.3%
26w
-8.5%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 66 29% -3.4% -27.8% to 22.9%
13 weeks 65 31% -5.3% -33.3% to 54.3%
26 weeks 65 31% -8.5% -30.6% to 75.8%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-18 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 14.5% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2025-04-25 Confirmed High 0.22 37.5% 6 weeks
2025-05-16 Confirmed Low 0.18 -18.2% 3 weeks
2025-08-08 Confirmed High 0.305 69.4% 12 weeks
2025-09-05 Confirmed Low 0.225 -26.2% 4 weeks
2025-10-03 Confirmed High 0.275 22.2% 4 weeks
2025-10-24 Confirmed Low 0.22 -20.0% 3 weeks
2025-11-14 Confirmed High 0.255 15.9% 3 weeks
2026-04-17 Confirmed Low 0.125 -51.0% 22 weeks
2026-04-24 Confirmed High 0.1525 22.0% 1 weeks
2026-07-24 Confirmed Low 0.10 -34.4% 13 weeks
2026-08-28 Confirmed High 0.15 50.0% 5 weeks
2026-09-18 Forming Low 0.12 -20.0% 3 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context