JPX · Financial Services · Weekly analysis

8366 Elliott Wave report

The Shiga Bank, Ltd.

Latest close JPY 2,862.00 Week ending 4 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

The five-wave move is mature

The count describes a move that may be nearing its end. Watch for a confirmed reversal; maturity alone does not mean price has turned.

77/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Mature / manage risk Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countFive-wave advance mature

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsCheck whether the move is losing support

6 readings are positive, 1 are negative and 0 are neutral. They describe current direction, not whether a mature move has finished.

Main uncertaintyLow count stability

The leading count changed 6 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in JPY · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-09-15666.80538.24434.19
2023-09-22676.19542.63435.68
2023-09-29666.61546.96437.28
2023-10-06701.85552.53439.08
2023-10-13710.42559.73441.03
2023-10-20710.42566.95443.01
2023-10-27725.66574.37445.15
2023-11-03784.70583.47447.53
2023-11-10765.65591.83449.78
2023-11-17724.70598.48451.71
2023-11-24731.37605.20453.68
2023-12-01709.47611.27455.65
2023-12-08712.32617.35457.65
2023-12-15665.66622.09459.46
2023-12-22648.52626.84461.24
2023-12-29664.71631.61463.15
2024-01-05666.61636.73465.04
2024-01-12653.28641.68466.91
2024-01-19644.71646.41468.86
2024-01-26660.90651.53470.96
2024-02-02741.85658.83473.53
2024-02-09718.04665.09475.92
2024-02-16735.18671.73478.39
2024-02-23764.70678.50480.96
2024-03-01797.08686.53483.74
2024-03-08803.75694.67486.39
2024-03-15782.79702.46488.63
2024-03-22855.17711.30491.38
2024-03-29810.41717.63493.86
2024-04-05765.23722.16496.17
2024-04-12783.49726.05498.59
2024-04-19763.31728.95501.00
2024-04-26788.30733.01503.63
2024-05-03765.23735.12506.09
2024-05-10782.53737.52508.76
2024-05-17774.84739.67511.35
2024-05-24797.91742.08514.17
2024-05-31864.25744.73517.33
2024-06-07842.14747.28520.41
2024-06-14823.87750.59523.39
2024-06-21785.42752.39526.16
2024-06-28810.41755.75529.10
2024-07-05776.76757.90531.94
2024-07-12794.07762.18534.85
2024-07-19798.88767.19537.86
2024-07-26780.61771.06540.77
2024-08-02718.12772.77543.26
2024-08-09645.06772.50545.29
2024-08-16713.32774.79547.80
2024-08-23671.02775.12550.00
2024-08-30652.75772.15552.03
2024-09-06639.29769.53553.94
2024-09-13618.14765.63555.69
2024-09-20632.56761.22557.58
2024-09-27628.65755.61559.51
2024-10-04652.04750.55561.48
2024-10-11653.02746.23563.48
2024-10-18673.49740.17565.65
2024-10-25628.65734.11567.59
2024-11-01640.35729.95569.51
2024-11-08701.75727.22571.85
2024-11-15676.41724.33574.10
2024-11-22692.98721.15576.46
2024-11-29722.22719.72578.99
2024-12-06756.33718.84581.62
2024-12-13750.48718.03584.16
2024-12-20733.91715.90586.58
2024-12-27769.98712.76589.17
2025-01-03766.08710.22591.56
2025-01-10754.38707.90593.89
2025-01-17785.57707.91596.52
2025-01-24819.68708.22599.30
2025-01-31903.50712.44602.48
2025-02-07900.58715.99605.64
2025-02-14932.74720.46609.05
2025-02-21940.54725.79612.61
2025-02-28923.00732.62616.06
2025-03-07932.74742.21619.47
2025-03-14934.69749.58622.79
2025-03-211,031.18761.59626.72
2025-03-281,055.41775.01630.90
2025-04-04920.78784.40634.15
2025-04-11940.44795.14637.37
2025-04-181,116.34811.26641.74
2025-04-251,100.62827.00645.94
2025-05-021,082.93841.36649.94
2025-05-091,177.27858.83654.63
2025-05-161,179.23875.69659.45
2025-05-231,198.89894.70664.21
2025-05-301,210.68913.71668.83
2025-06-061,163.51929.10673.18
2025-06-131,165.47945.41677.52
2025-06-201,171.37961.35681.87
2025-06-271,151.72975.67686.11
2025-07-041,169.41989.44690.51
2025-07-111,222.471,005.17695.38
2025-07-181,208.711,021.00699.94
2025-07-251,226.401,036.21704.65
2025-08-011,228.371,051.62709.48
2025-08-081,249.991,068.14714.39
2025-08-151,336.461,086.50719.88
2025-08-221,312.881,102.94725.24
2025-08-291,291.261,115.87730.59
2025-09-051,301.091,129.22735.98
2025-09-121,326.641,142.35741.42
2025-09-191,265.711,153.19746.49
2025-09-261,330.571,166.77751.92
2025-10-031,266.071,177.88756.97
2025-10-101,230.351,187.74761.83
2025-10-171,210.511,193.72766.52
2025-10-241,220.431,199.22771.41
2025-10-311,236.311,209.74776.45
2025-11-071,262.101,220.46781.65
2025-11-141,230.351,224.26786.60
2025-11-211,226.381,228.45791.27
2025-11-281,349.421,237.33796.94
2025-12-051,399.031,244.73802.95
2025-12-121,454.591,253.90809.33
2025-12-191,488.331,263.55815.76
2025-12-261,424.831,270.69821.76
2026-01-021,424.831,279.40827.79
2026-01-091,514.131,291.02834.00
2026-01-161,611.371,305.69841.04
2026-01-231,629.231,321.61848.16
2026-01-301,565.721,334.82854.98
2026-02-061,722.491,351.48862.67
2026-02-131,758.211,369.80870.52
2026-02-201,744.321,387.07878.22
2026-02-271,793.931,405.92886.27
2026-03-061,694.711,420.74893.71
2026-03-131,700.661,432.88901.44
2026-03-201,746.311,447.33909.47
2026-03-271,913.001,468.05918.51
2026-04-031,901.001,488.05927.41
2026-04-102,090.001,513.50937.51
2026-04-172,056.001,539.84947.32
2026-04-241,869.001,557.79955.91
2026-05-011,886.001,578.45964.62
2026-05-081,859.001,599.41973.14
2026-05-152,056.001,627.59982.96
2026-05-222,165.001,659.08993.60
2026-05-292,002.001,684.601,003.09
2026-06-052,092.001,712.261,013.21
2026-06-122,268.001,746.851,024.51
2026-06-192,294.001,782.441,035.99
2026-06-262,412.001,817.861,048.20
2026-07-032,641.001,859.261,061.78
2026-07-102,888.001,907.041,076.89
2026-07-172,542.001,942.161,089.75
2026-07-242,655.001,983.161,103.17
2026-07-312,400.002,015.671,114.99
2026-08-072,553.002,050.301,127.77
2026-08-142,775.002,089.091,142.04
2026-08-212,666.002,123.651,155.35
2026-08-282,817.002,165.351,169.43
2026-09-042,862.002,203.341,183.74
4-week return 12.1%
13-week return 36.8%
26-week return 68.9%
52-week return 120.0%
From 52-week high -4.5%
26-week volatility 46.3%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 8.8% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Five-wave advance maturePrimary swing size · Leading88%
Possible bearish Wave 2 crestPrimary swing size6%
Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completingPrimary swing size6%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Five-wave advance mature

88% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm above 2,862.00 Fails below 2,400.00 Count stability Low · 4/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 1,210.51; Wave 2 1,859.00.
PassWave 3 exceeds Wave 1Wave 1 2,090.00; Wave 3 2,888.00.
PassWave 4 does not overlap Wave 1Wave 1 boundary 2,090.00; Wave 4 2,400.00.
PassWave 3 is not the shortest motive waveMotive lengths: 879.49, 1029.00, 462.00.
FailWave 5 makes motive progressWave 3 2,888.00; Wave 5 2,862.00.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 26% of Wave 1.
GuidelineWave 3 extension is plausibleWave 3 is 1.17× Wave 1.
GuidelineWave 4 retracement is proportionateRetraced 47% of Wave 3.
GuidelineWaves 2 and 4 show temporal alternationWave 2 lasted 4w; Wave 4 lasted 3w.
Strategic degreeNo valid count

Strategic degree uses a 14.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreeFive-wave advance mature

Primary degree uses a 8.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreeFive-wave advance mature

Tactical degree uses a 6.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 19.3%

5 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 2,400.00

Pivot from 2026-07-31

Nearest confirmed resistance 2,888.00

Pivot from 2026-07-10

30-week trend 2,203.34

Price is 29.9% from trend

Fair Value reference 1,183.74

Price is 141.8% from Fair Value

52-week range position 93%

1,186.69 low · 2,996.00 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

6 readings are positive, 1 are negative and 0 are neutral. They describe current direction, not whether a mature move has finished.

86% directional agreement

Check whether the move is losing support.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

29.9% above trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Rising
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are weakening together.

Falling Stack
Relative strength

Outperforming its benchmark

+37.3
Market activity

Participation is supportive

+79.4
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+0.9
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+66.2
Balance of readings Constructive

6 constructive, 1 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Outperforming its benchmark.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is positive.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is rising. That supports the recent upswing, but it does not establish how long it will last.

Cycle repeat scores range from 1 to 18/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseRising

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementFalling Stack

25/100 constructive · 75/100 risk

Estimated next low11 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high7 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 8w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score6/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough4w
Possible next low1–7w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w
Current phaseCresting
Repeat score1/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough4w
Possible next low8–14w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 50w
Current phaseCresting
Repeat score4/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough13w
Possible next low26–48w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 60w
Current phaseCresting
Repeat score18/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough12w
Possible next low38–58w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 0.9% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 4.5% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Wave maturity

    A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving.

  • Trend extension

    Price is 29.9% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.

  • Range position

    Price is 93% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.

Downside risk check

High vulnerability

77/100
Wave maturity25/25
Trend extension20/20
Range position11/15
Cycle rollover0/15
Multi-cycle risk11/15
Count instability10/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low1,186.69
52-week high2,996.00
Annualised volatility46.3%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range6.1%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-0.9%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume135%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Most analysed peers have an upward wave count. That agrees with this report’s upward interpretation.

67% constructive

16 of 24 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

33% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^N225Middle 80% of returns
4 weeks108065%2.4%1.0%-6.4% to 10.9%
13 weeks35971%6.3%2.8%-7.8% to 24.6%
26 weeks18983%15.7%7.2%-3.1% to 42.9%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +3.2% across 149 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

150 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
3.2%
13w
7.3%
26w
21.8%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 149 62% 3.2% -11.6% to 27.3%
13 weeks 140 76% 7.3% -25.0% to 42.1%
26 weeks 127 82% 21.8% -26.0% to 90.7%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-04 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 8.8% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2024-08-09 Confirmed Low 645.06 -10.2% 1 weeks
2024-08-16 Confirmed High 713.32 10.6% 1 weeks
2024-09-13 Confirmed Low 618.14 -13.3% 4 weeks
2025-03-28 Confirmed High 1,055.41 70.7% 28 weeks
2025-04-04 Confirmed Low 920.78 -12.8% 1 weeks
2025-08-15 Confirmed High 1,336.46 45.1% 19 weeks
2025-10-17 Confirmed Low 1,210.51 -9.4% 9 weeks
2026-04-10 Confirmed High 2,090.00 72.7% 25 weeks
2026-05-08 Confirmed Low 1,859.00 -11.1% 4 weeks
2026-07-10 Confirmed High 2,888.00 55.4% 9 weeks
2026-07-31 Confirmed Low 2,400.00 -16.9% 3 weeks
2026-09-04 Forming High 2,862.00 19.3% 5 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context