HKG · Consumer Cyclical · Weekly analysis

0156 Elliott Wave report

Lippo China Resources Limited

Latest close HKD 1.09 Week ending 18 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

The five-wave move is mature

The count describes a move that may be nearing its end. Watch for a confirmed reversal; maturity alone does not mean price has turned.

63/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Mature / manage risk Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countFive-wave advance mature

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsCheck whether the move is losing support

5 readings are positive, 1 are negative and 1 are neutral. They describe current direction, not whether a mature move has finished.

Main uncertaintyLow count stability

The leading count changed 4 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in HKD · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-09-291.210.8871.08
2023-10-061.020.88431.08
2023-10-130.970.87871.07
2023-10-200.900.8691.07
2023-10-270.890.85371.07
2023-11-030.920.84131.07
2023-11-100.820.83231.07
2023-11-170.820.82431.06
2023-11-240.800.81671.06
2023-12-010.810.81131.06
2023-12-080.750.80471.06
2023-12-150.830.8021.05
2023-12-220.790.79931.05
2023-12-290.830.79831.05
2024-01-050.830.79971.05
2024-01-120.820.80231.05
2024-01-190.760.80131.05
2024-01-260.760.80231.04
2024-02-020.760.80431.04
2024-02-090.750.80731.04
2024-02-160.730.80971.04
2024-02-230.690.811.03
2024-03-010.730.81271.03
2024-03-080.780.81771.03
2024-03-150.990.82631.03
2024-03-220.990.83431.03
2024-03-291.050.84431.03
2024-04-050.930.85071.02
2024-04-120.900.8551.02
2024-04-190.840.85571.02
2024-04-260.790.84171.02
2024-05-030.810.83471.02
2024-05-100.730.82671.01
2024-05-170.730.8211.01
2024-05-240.720.81531.01
2024-05-310.700.8081.01
2024-06-070.710.80431.00
2024-06-140.690.801.00
2024-06-210.710.7970.9985
2024-06-280.690.7930.9958
2024-07-050.690.7910.993
2024-07-120.710.7870.9902
2024-07-190.690.78370.9875
2024-07-260.690.7790.985
2024-08-020.680.7740.9825
2024-08-090.680.76930.9797
2024-08-160.650.76570.9766
2024-08-230.640.76170.9732
2024-08-300.700.75970.9702
2024-09-060.690.75770.9671
2024-09-130.730.75770.9643
2024-09-200.730.7590.9615
2024-09-270.910.7650.959
2024-10-040.880.76830.9566
2024-10-110.830.7630.9541
2024-10-180.820.75730.9515
2024-10-250.810.74930.949
2024-11-010.720.74230.946
2024-11-080.720.73630.9432
2024-11-150.700.73170.9402
2024-11-220.690.72830.9373
2024-11-290.690.72430.9343
2024-12-060.690.7230.9313
2024-12-130.670.7210.9283
2024-12-200.690.720.9254
2024-12-270.700.720.9226
2025-01-030.770.7220.9205
2025-01-100.750.7240.9183
2025-01-170.720.72430.9156
2025-01-240.740.7260.9132
2025-01-310.740.72770.9106
2025-02-070.760.72930.9081
2025-02-140.780.73230.9059
2025-02-210.820.73670.9041
2025-02-280.910.74430.9027
2025-03-070.930.75270.9016
2025-03-140.930.7620.9007
2025-03-210.930.77170.8992
2025-03-280.930.77930.8974
2025-04-040.880.78570.8952
2025-04-110.770.7870.8925
2025-04-180.770.78830.8897
2025-04-250.780.7840.8873
2025-05-020.780.78070.8854
2025-05-090.770.77870.8834
2025-05-160.820.77870.8818
2025-05-230.820.7790.8803
2025-05-300.780.7810.8785
2025-06-060.750.7820.8763
2025-06-130.730.7830.8738
2025-06-200.700.78330.8712
2025-06-270.710.7840.8687
2025-07-040.700.78430.8661
2025-07-110.710.78570.8644
2025-07-180.710.78630.8626
2025-07-250.720.7870.861
2025-08-010.730.78570.8594
2025-08-080.710.78430.8578
2025-08-150.700.78370.8563
2025-08-220.790.78530.855
2025-08-290.760.7860.854
2025-09-050.830.78830.8531
2025-09-120.840.79030.8518
2025-09-190.840.7910.8499
2025-09-260.840.78870.8464
2025-10-030.940.7890.8443
2025-10-100.870.7870.8422
2025-10-170.840.7840.8401
2025-10-240.790.77930.8378
2025-10-310.750.7750.8353
2025-11-070.780.77530.8335
2025-11-140.770.77530.8315
2025-11-210.790.77570.8296
2025-11-280.810.77670.828
2025-12-050.810.7780.8262
2025-12-120.800.77730.8244
2025-12-190.820.77730.8227
2025-12-260.810.77830.821
2026-01-020.820.78070.8195
2026-01-090.800.7830.8178
2026-01-160.840.78770.8166
2026-01-230.860.79270.8153
2026-01-300.880.79870.8142
2026-02-060.910.80530.813
2026-02-130.920.81230.812
2026-02-200.920.8190.8106
2026-02-270.940.8260.8094
2026-03-060.970.83470.8086
2026-03-130.970.84370.8075
2026-03-200.960.84930.806
2026-03-271.000.85730.8038
2026-04-031.020.86370.8021
2026-04-101.050.87070.8018
2026-04-171.060.8780.8018
2026-04-241.050.8850.8019
2026-05-011.020.88770.8022
2026-05-081.000.8920.8026
2026-05-151.050.8990.8035
2026-05-221.020.90670.8044
2026-05-291.020.91570.8054
2026-06-051.020.92370.8069
2026-06-121.020.9320.8087
2026-06-191.030.940.8103
2026-06-261.030.94730.8122
2026-07-030.990.95330.814
2026-07-100.990.95970.8162
2026-07-171.000.96570.8183
2026-07-241.000.9720.8204
2026-07-311.000.9780.8226
2026-08-070.9750.98380.8248
2026-08-140.980.98850.8264
2026-08-210.990.99280.828
2026-08-280.990.99650.8295
2026-09-040.9950.99930.8312
2026-09-110.991.000.8326
2026-09-181.091.010.8343
4-week return 10.1%
13-week return 5.8%
26-week return 13.5%
52-week return 29.8%
From 52-week high -3.5%
26-week volatility 19.8%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 6.3% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Five-wave advance maturePrimary swing size · Leading89%
Possible Wave 3 advancingPrimary swing size7%
Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completingPrimary swing size4%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Five-wave advance mature

89% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm above 1.09 Fails below 0.975 Count stability Low · 36/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 0.70; Wave 2 0.75.
PassWave 3 exceeds Wave 1Wave 1 0.94; Wave 3 1.06.
PassWave 4 does not overlap Wave 1Wave 1 boundary 0.94; Wave 4 0.975.
PassWave 3 is not the shortest motive waveMotive lengths: 0.24, 0.31, 0.12.
PassWave 5 makes motive progressWave 3 1.06; Wave 5 1.09.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 79% of Wave 1.
GuidelineWave 3 extension is plausibleWave 3 is 1.29× Wave 1.
GuidelineWave 4 retracement is proportionateRetraced 27% of Wave 3.
GuidelineWaves 2 and 4 show temporal alternationWave 2 lasted 4w; Wave 4 lasted 16w.
Strategic degreePossible Wave 3 advancing

Strategic degree uses a 10.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreeFive-wave advance mature

Primary degree uses a 6.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreeNo valid count

Tactical degree uses a 4.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 11.8%

6 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.975

Pivot from 2026-08-07

Nearest confirmed resistance -

Price is above prior confirmed highs

30-week trend 1.01

Price is 8.2% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.8343

Price is 30.6% from Fair Value

52-week range position 90%

0.74 low · 1.13 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

5 readings are positive, 1 are negative and 1 are neutral. They describe current direction, not whether a mature move has finished.

71% directional agreement

Check whether the move is losing support.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

8.2% above trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Rising
Cycle alignment

Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction.

Mixed
Relative strength

Outperforming its benchmark

+20.6
Market activity

Participation is supportive

+9.7
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-0.5
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+18.5
Balance of readings Constructive

5 constructive, 1 weak and 1 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Outperforming its benchmark.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is positive.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is weak.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is rising. That supports the recent upswing, but it does not establish how long it will last.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 67/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseRising

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementMixed

50/100 constructive · 50/100 risk

Estimated next low4 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high4 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 12w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough5w
Possible next low5–9w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 25w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score43/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough1w
Possible next low16–32w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 50w
Current phaseCresting
Repeat score67/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough1w
Possible next low40–58w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 60w
Current phaseCresting
Repeat score26/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough56w
Possible next low0–14w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 21.0% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 3.5% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Wave maturity

    A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving.

  • Range position

    Price is 90% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 50/100.

Downside risk check

Elevated vulnerability

51/100
Wave maturity25/25
Trend extension3/20
Range position9/15
Cycle rollover0/15
Multi-cycle risk8/15
Count instability6/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.74
52-week high1.13
Annualised volatility19.8%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range3.5%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-21.0%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume179%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

35% constructive

8 of 23 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

9% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^HSIMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks49146%-1.0%-1.1%-13.0% to 17.3%
13 weeks19846%-3.7%-3.2%-24.4% to 33.6%
26 weeks11853%1.4%-4.9%-31.0% to 42.7%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was -1.5% across 61 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

61 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
-1.5%
13w
-5.7%
26w
-3.2%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 61 41% -1.5% -26.5% to 19.5%
13 weeks 57 32% -5.7% -45.9% to 31.3%
26 weeks 48 42% -3.2% -33.6% to 27.5%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-18 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 6.3% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2024-12-13 Confirmed Low 0.67 -26.4% 11 weeks
2025-01-03 Confirmed High 0.77 14.9% 3 weeks
2025-01-17 Confirmed Low 0.72 -6.5% 2 weeks
2025-03-28 Confirmed High 0.93 29.2% 10 weeks
2025-05-09 Confirmed Low 0.77 -17.2% 6 weeks
2025-05-23 Confirmed High 0.82 6.5% 2 weeks
2025-08-15 Confirmed Low 0.70 -14.6% 12 weeks
2025-10-03 Confirmed High 0.94 34.3% 7 weeks
2025-10-31 Confirmed Low 0.75 -20.2% 4 weeks
2026-04-17 Confirmed High 1.06 41.3% 24 weeks
2026-08-07 Confirmed Low 0.975 -8.0% 16 weeks
2026-09-18 Forming High 1.09 11.8% 6 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context