HKG · Consumer Cyclical · Weekly analysis

8237 Elliott Wave report

Link Holdings Limited

Latest close HKD 0.865 Week ending 11 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

The wave count points to a decline

The selected pattern describes a move downward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

92/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Triggered Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countHurst crest risk

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings support this direction

4 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 3 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

Main uncertaintyModerate count stability

The leading count changed 3 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in HKD · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-09-220.550.56580.5505
2023-09-290.550.56080.55
2023-10-060.550.55330.5495
2023-10-130.550.55080.5487
2023-10-200.550.550.5482
2023-10-270.550.550.5476
2023-11-030.550.550.5468
2023-11-100.550.550.5444
2023-11-170.550.550.5439
2023-11-240.550.550.5425
2023-12-010.550.550.541
2023-12-080.550.550.5399
2023-12-150.550.550.5386
2023-12-220.550.550.5375
2023-12-290.550.550.5373
2024-01-050.550.550.5377
2024-01-120.550.550.5385
2024-01-190.550.550.5385
2024-01-260.850.560.5399
2024-02-020.850.570.5423
2024-02-090.9750.58420.5452
2024-02-160.800.59250.5463
2024-02-230.7250.59830.5471
2024-03-010.7750.60580.5481
2024-03-080.8750.61670.5495
2024-03-150.800.6250.5505
2024-03-220.6750.62920.5513
2024-03-290.700.63420.5522
2024-04-050.700.63920.5532
2024-04-120.750.64580.5545
2024-04-190.700.65080.5551
2024-04-260.5750.65170.555
2024-05-030.600.65330.555
2024-05-100.650.65670.5543
2024-05-170.6250.65920.5537
2024-05-240.600.66080.553
2024-05-310.550.66080.5526
2024-06-070.600.66250.5516
2024-06-140.600.66420.5506
2024-06-210.500.66250.5492
2024-06-280.500.66080.5474
2024-07-050.5750.66170.5465
2024-07-120.450.65830.5442
2024-07-190.4250.65420.5425
2024-07-260.4750.65170.5404
2024-08-020.400.64670.538
2024-08-090.4250.64250.5367
2024-08-160.4250.63830.5354
2024-08-230.3750.62250.5337
2024-08-300.400.60750.5321
2024-09-060.450.590.5308
2024-09-130.4750.57920.53
2024-09-200.450.570.529
2024-09-270.4250.55830.5277
2024-10-040.600.54920.5277
2024-10-110.5250.540.5272
2024-10-180.500.53420.5268
2024-10-250.5250.52830.5266
2024-11-010.550.52330.5266
2024-11-080.550.51670.5264
2024-11-150.550.51170.5268
2024-11-220.550.51080.5268
2024-11-290.5250.50830.5268
2024-12-060.5250.50420.5272
2024-12-130.5750.50250.5279
2024-12-200.5750.50170.5285
2024-12-270.6250.50420.5298
2025-01-030.5750.50330.5309
2025-01-100.5750.50250.5324
2025-01-170.550.50420.5333
2025-01-240.4750.50330.5338
2025-01-310.4750.500.5343
2025-02-070.500.50170.5351
2025-02-140.450.50250.5351
2025-02-210.450.50170.5351
2025-02-280.400.50170.5348
2025-03-070.240.49550.5339
2025-03-140.2750.49050.5336
2025-03-210.300.4880.5334
2025-03-280.300.48470.5331
2025-04-040.2950.47950.5328
2025-04-110.270.47270.5326
2025-04-180.2450.46580.5322
2025-04-250.2450.45980.5315
2025-05-020.2380.44780.5308
2025-05-090.220.43760.53
2025-05-160.2060.42780.5289
2025-05-230.160.41560.5278
2025-05-300.1430.40210.5265
2025-06-060.180.38970.5253
2025-06-130.1670.3770.5241
2025-06-200.1590.36390.5227
2025-06-270.1580.35170.5212
2025-07-040.1650.33970.5197
2025-07-110.1890.32680.5178
2025-07-180.1910.3140.5163
2025-07-250.1970.29980.5147
2025-08-010.2030.28740.5134
2025-08-080.1990.27480.512
2025-08-150.2050.26330.5107
2025-08-220.2650.25630.51
2025-08-290.2380.24840.5093
2025-09-050.2550.24030.5087
2025-09-120.3050.23540.5084
2025-09-190.3250.23130.5081
2025-09-260.430.23230.5088
2025-10-030.4250.23840.5094
2025-10-100.400.24260.5097
2025-10-170.360.24460.5096
2025-10-240.400.24790.5101
2025-10-310.400.25140.5104
2025-11-070.3250.25330.5103
2025-11-140.330.25610.5101
2025-11-210.3450.25940.5101
2025-11-280.2950.26130.5099
2025-12-050.260.26270.509
2025-12-120.2490.26410.5076
2025-12-190.2490.26710.5055
2025-12-260.2490.27060.5031
2026-01-020.230.27230.4989
2026-01-090.230.27440.4948
2026-01-160.1990.27570.49
2026-01-230.1860.27660.4851
2026-01-300.1860.27730.4799
2026-02-060.1860.27720.474
2026-02-130.1890.27720.4695
2026-02-200.1890.27690.4649
2026-02-270.1890.27640.4616
2026-03-060.1940.27630.4579
2026-03-130.1940.27590.4551
2026-03-200.190.27340.4527
2026-03-270.1950.2720.4504
2026-04-030.1980.27010.4481
2026-04-100.420.27390.4473
2026-04-170.510.28010.4471
2026-04-240.680.28840.4479
2026-05-011.080.31020.4513
2026-05-081.000.33020.4542
2026-05-151.050.35320.4574
2026-05-220.950.37160.4599
2026-05-290.900.38820.4622
2026-06-050.720.40140.4633
2026-06-121.060.42570.4665
2026-06-190.960.44620.4692
2026-06-261.110.47340.4728
2026-07-031.050.49970.476
2026-07-101.250.53310.4804
2026-07-171.320.56880.4854
2026-07-241.080.59650.4888
2026-07-310.990.62180.4916
2026-08-071.020.6480.4946
2026-08-140.930.67240.497
2026-08-210.800.69280.4986
2026-08-280.580.7060.4988
2026-09-040.620.72040.4993
2026-09-110.8650.7430.5013
4-week return -7.0%
13-week return -18.4%
26-week return 345.9%
52-week return 183.6%
From 52-week high -35.0%
26-week volatility 210.2%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 16.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 2 crestPrimary swing size · Leading33%
Possible bearish Wave 2 crestStrategic swing size33%
Possible bearish Wave 2 crestTactical swing size33%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Possible bearish Wave 2 crest

33% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 0.58 Fails above 1.32 Count stability Moderate · 52/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 1.32; Wave 2 0.865.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 39% of Wave 1.
Strategic degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 49.1%

2 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.58

Pivot from 2026-08-28

Nearest confirmed resistance 1.32

Pivot from 2026-07-17

30-week trend 0.743

Price is 16.4% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.5013

Price is 72.6% from Fair Value

52-week range position 59%

0.186 low · 1.33 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

4 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 3 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

57% directional agreement

The other readings support this direction. 4 readings support the selected direction; 3 lean against it.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

16.4% above trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is not rising.

Falling
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are weakening together.

Falling Stack
Relative strength

Outperforming its benchmark

+59.7
Market activity

Participation is weak

-1.1
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-0.8
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+357.7
Balance of readings Defensive

3 constructive, 4 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is weak. This supports the downward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Outperforming its benchmark. This challenges the downward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is positive. This challenges the downward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is weak. This supports the downward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is falling. A recovery in price needs support from the other readings.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 24/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseFalling

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementFalling Stack

25/100 constructive · 75/100 risk

Estimated next low10 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high17 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 8w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score11/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough1w
Possible next low1–13w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 25w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough28w
Possible next low14–30w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 34w
Current phaseCresting
Repeat score24/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough24w
Possible next low1–19w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 82w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough53w
Possible next low13–45w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 34.5% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 35.0% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Trend extension

    Price is 16.4% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.

  • Cycle rollover

    Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 75/100.

Downside risk check

Watch

43/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension16/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover11/15
Multi-cycle risk11/15
Count instability5/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.186
52-week high1.33
Annualised volatility210.2%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range14.6%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-34.5%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume74%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

48% constructive

11 of 23 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

17% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^HSIMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks15447%-0.3%-2.1%-10.5% to 15.1%
13 weeks9451%1.2%-3.9%-18.0% to 29.6%
26 weeks7755%5.9%-1.2%-20.5% to 39.4%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was -2.0% across 28 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

29 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
-2.0%
13w
-8.2%
26w
0.0%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 28 7% -2.0% -25.3% to 4.4%
13 weeks 28 11% -8.2% -40.0% to 153.3%
26 weeks 28 21% 0.0% -39.3% to 345.8%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-11 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 16.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2024-10-18 Confirmed Low 0.50 -16.7% 2 weeks
2024-12-27 Confirmed High 0.625 25.0% 10 weeks
2025-03-07 Confirmed Low 0.24 -61.6% 10 weeks
2025-03-28 Confirmed High 0.30 25.0% 3 weeks
2025-05-30 Confirmed Low 0.143 -52.3% 9 weeks
2025-09-26 Confirmed High 0.43 200.7% 17 weeks
2026-02-06 Confirmed Low 0.186 -56.7% 19 weeks
2026-05-01 Confirmed High 1.08 480.6% 12 weeks
2026-06-05 Confirmed Low 0.72 -33.3% 5 weeks
2026-07-17 Confirmed High 1.32 83.3% 6 weeks
2026-08-28 Confirmed Low 0.58 -56.1% 6 weeks
2026-09-11 Forming High 0.865 49.1% 2 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context