OSL · Financial Services · Weekly analysis

SBNOR Elliott Wave report

Sparebanken Norge

Latest close NOK 205.85 Week ending 11 Sep 2026 History 73 weeks
Current reading

The wave count points to a decline

The selected pattern describes a move downward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

37/100 Setup score 49/100 Data quality Triggered Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countPossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings point the other way

6 of 7 available readings lean against the downward wave interpretation; 1 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

Main uncertaintyHigh count stability

The most recent swing is still forming and can extend. A settled label needs a confirmed reversal.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in NOK · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2025-04-25128.65Unavailable128.65
2025-05-02134.40Unavailable131.53
2025-05-09131.21Unavailable131.42
2025-05-16142.96Unavailable134.30
2025-05-23144.05Unavailable136.25
2025-05-30146.25Unavailable137.92
2025-06-06148.63Unavailable139.45
2025-06-13148.28Unavailable140.55
2025-06-20144.72Unavailable141.02
2025-06-27149.55Unavailable141.87
2025-07-04151.64Unavailable142.76
2025-07-11151.08Unavailable143.45
2025-07-18150.36Unavailable143.98
2025-07-25152.79Unavailable144.61
2025-08-01151.41Unavailable145.06
2025-08-08149.06Unavailable145.31
2025-08-15157.24Unavailable146.02
2025-08-22159.55Unavailable146.77
2025-08-29159.55Unavailable147.44
2025-09-05154.99Unavailable147.82
2025-09-12159.95Unavailable148.40
2025-09-19164.38Unavailable149.12
2025-09-26165.29Unavailable149.83
2025-10-03163.26Unavailable150.39
2025-10-10169.07Unavailable151.13
2025-10-17166.66Unavailable151.73
2025-10-24165.40Unavailable152.24
2025-10-31165.89Unavailable152.72
2025-11-07162.43Unavailable153.06
2025-11-14162.09153.36153.36
2025-11-21161.43154.45153.62
2025-11-28168.56155.59154.09
2025-12-05172.00156.95154.63
2025-12-12172.86157.95155.17
2025-12-19181.96159.21155.93
2025-12-26182.34160.41156.66
2026-01-02184.03161.59157.40
2026-01-09176.02162.52157.89
2026-01-16181.49163.74158.50
2026-01-23176.15164.63158.94
2026-01-30180.46165.59159.47
2026-02-06186.32166.77160.10
2026-02-13184.16167.89160.66
2026-02-20192.96169.23161.40
2026-02-27193.29170.63162.11
2026-03-06186.53171.88162.64
2026-03-13188.30172.91163.18
2026-03-20185.27173.77163.64
2026-03-27189.46174.77164.17
2026-04-03201.75176.33164.92
2026-04-10207.95177.93165.77
2026-04-17208.35179.39166.59
2026-04-24204.65180.70167.30
2026-05-01201.20181.97167.93
2026-05-08192.00182.73168.37
2026-05-15188.44183.46168.73
2026-05-22192.42184.36169.14
2026-05-29190.30185.17169.51
2026-06-05185.42185.94169.78
2026-06-12183.14186.64170.00
2026-06-19185.06187.43170.25
2026-06-26184.20187.95170.47
2026-07-03188.58188.50170.76
2026-07-10193.22189.18171.11
2026-07-17194.52189.60171.47
2026-07-24193.58189.97171.81
2026-07-31196.58190.39172.18
2026-08-07199.14191.16172.57
2026-08-14195.64191.63172.91
2026-08-21193.32192.21173.20
2026-08-28206.50193.07173.67
2026-09-04205.90193.73174.11
2026-09-11205.85194.45174.55
4-week return 5.2%
13-week return 12.4%
26-week return 9.3%
52-week return 28.7%
From 52-week high -2.9%
26-week volatility 18.4%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 5.2% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 2 crestTactical swing size · Leading100%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Possible bearish Wave 2 crest

100% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 183.14 Fails above 208.35 Count stability High · 100/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 208.35; Wave 2 205.85.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 90% of Wave 1.
Strategic degreeNo valid count

Strategic degree uses a 8.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreeNo valid count

Primary degree uses a 5.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Tactical degree uses a 3.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 60.0%

72 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 128.65

Pivot from 2025-04-25

Nearest confirmed resistance -

Price is above prior confirmed highs

30-week trend 194.45

Price is 5.9% from trend

Fair Value reference 174.55

Price is 17.9% from Fair Value

52-week range position 89%

158.46 low · 212.00 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

6 of 7 available readings lean against the downward wave interpretation; 1 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

86% directional agreement

The other readings point the other way. 1 readings support the selected direction; 6 lean against it.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

5.9% above trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Rising
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are improving together.

Rising Stack
Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-2.3
Market activity

Participation is supportive

+42.6
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+0.8
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+11.8
Balance of readings Constructive

6 constructive, 1 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark. This supports the downward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is positive. This challenges the downward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is rising. That supports the recent upswing, but it does not establish how long it will last.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 0/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseRising

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementRising Stack

88/100 constructive · 12/100 risk

Estimated next low12 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high11 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 12w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough3w
Possible next low6–12w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough3w
Possible next low9–15w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 40w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough7w
Possible next low23–43w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 80w
Current phaseWarming
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Unconfirmed
Since last trough-
Possible next low-
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 1.2% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 2.9% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Range position

    Price is 89% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 12/100.

Downside risk check

Contained

10/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position8/15
Cycle rollover0/15
Multi-cycle risk2/15
Count instability0/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low158.46
52-week high212.00
Annualised volatility18.4%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range2.8%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-1.2%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume70%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Most analysed peers have an upward wave count. That contrasts with this report’s downward interpretation.

71% constructive

17 of 24 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

29% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs OSEBX.OLMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks95560%1.0%0.2%-4.6% to 8.0%
13 weeks32369%3.9%0.8%-6.1% to 16.3%
26 weeks17178%7.9%2.3%-7.2% to 28.5%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

There are not enough completed, comparable outcomes to draw a useful historical comparison.

0 similar weekly states
Not enough comparable history yet

Historical context appears only when at least eight completed outcomes are available for one of the measured horizons.

At least 90 weekly observations are required.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality49/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
28/100
Indicator coverage
80/100
Confirmed structure
17/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-11 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 5.2% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2025-04-25 Confirmed Low 128.65 - 0 weeks
2026-09-11 Forming High 205.85 60.0% 72 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context