SHZ · Consumer Defensive · Weekly analysis

300761 Elliott Wave report

Jiangsu Lihua Foods Group Co., Ltd

Latest close CNY 21.45 Week ending 4 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

The wave count points to a decline

The selected pattern describes a move downward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

47/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Watching Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countPossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings point the other way

6 of 7 available readings lean against the downward wave interpretation; 1 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

Main uncertaintyModerate count stability

The leading count changed 2 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in CNY · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-08-2518.2918.5617.89
2023-09-0117.7818.5217.86
2023-09-0817.2018.4617.84
2023-09-1516.6518.4117.80
2023-09-2216.9018.3417.78
2023-09-2916.1218.2217.76
2023-10-1314.8618.0417.73
2023-10-2014.5317.8917.71
2023-10-2715.7317.8017.69
2023-11-0315.8917.6617.68
2023-11-1015.9617.4917.67
2023-11-1715.9117.3617.66
2023-11-2416.8217.2417.65
2023-12-0116.8417.1617.64
2023-12-0818.0717.1517.64
2023-12-1517.5017.1317.63
2023-12-2218.4617.1617.63
2023-12-2919.7717.2017.63
2024-01-0518.5017.2017.63
2024-01-1218.8217.2217.64
2024-01-1918.6917.2417.65
2024-01-2617.9817.2617.67
2024-02-0215.9517.2117.66
2024-02-0916.8917.1917.66
2024-02-2317.4717.1817.67
2024-03-0118.2717.1917.68
2024-03-0818.4317.1917.69
2024-03-1518.8217.2317.69
2024-03-2219.9517.3317.70
2024-03-2919.8417.4317.71
2024-04-0520.3317.5017.71
2024-04-1219.4617.5517.70
2024-04-1919.4017.6317.71
2024-04-2620.3217.7517.72
2024-05-0320.5917.8717.73
2024-05-1020.9318.0317.75
2024-05-1721.9218.2717.78
2024-05-2423.0518.5517.81
2024-05-3123.2418.8017.84
2024-06-0723.2719.0517.87
2024-06-1422.4719.2617.91
2024-06-2122.0019.4717.94
2024-06-2821.3419.6217.96
2024-07-0520.8519.7517.98
2024-07-1220.9119.8518.01
2024-07-1922.6320.0218.05
2024-07-2622.1520.1418.09
2024-08-0221.7820.2118.13
2024-08-0920.5720.2818.15
2024-08-1619.9420.3118.18
2024-08-2319.1020.3318.21
2024-08-3018.5420.3518.24
2024-09-0617.7620.4118.27
2024-09-1316.8220.4018.29
2024-09-2016.5320.3718.31
2024-09-2719.1920.4018.35
2024-10-0422.0020.5218.41
2024-10-1119.2420.5418.45
2024-10-1820.0620.5418.49
2024-10-2520.9620.5818.54
2024-11-0120.4420.5818.57
2024-11-0821.5120.6518.61
2024-11-1519.6820.6618.65
2024-11-2219.0020.6218.68
2024-11-2919.8320.5918.71
2024-12-0620.1220.5618.73
2024-12-1320.2920.5118.76
2024-12-2018.7420.3718.79
2024-12-2719.2520.2318.82
2025-01-0317.8020.0518.82
2025-01-1017.1519.8718.80
2025-01-1718.3819.7518.80
2025-01-2417.8219.6418.79
2025-01-3118.0519.5418.78
2025-02-0717.9719.4418.78
2025-02-1417.5519.2718.78
2025-02-2117.1119.1118.78
2025-02-2817.1718.9518.78
2025-03-0717.3618.8518.77
2025-03-1417.7918.7718.76
2025-03-2117.5318.7218.77
2025-03-2818.2118.7118.76
2025-04-0418.8018.7518.76
2025-04-1119.9618.8518.78
2025-04-1819.2718.9418.79
2025-04-2518.6818.9218.80
2025-05-0218.1918.8018.81
2025-05-0918.4618.7718.83
2025-05-1617.9018.7018.84
2025-05-2317.7618.5918.86
2025-05-3018.6618.5318.89
2025-06-0618.4618.4318.91
2025-06-1319.0518.4118.93
2025-06-2018.4918.3918.94
2025-06-2718.4118.3518.95
2025-07-0418.3318.2918.95
2025-07-1118.8418.2418.93
2025-07-1818.4318.2318.92
2025-07-2519.3318.2318.91
2025-08-0119.3318.2818.89
2025-08-0820.0518.3818.90
2025-08-1519.7818.4218.89
2025-08-2219.4118.4818.88
2025-08-2919.4518.5218.87
2025-09-0519.4218.5718.86
2025-09-1222.8918.7518.86
2025-09-1922.4718.9318.85
2025-09-2622.5919.1118.85
2025-10-0321.4419.2518.85
2025-10-1022.6719.4118.87
2025-10-1721.9719.5618.89
2025-10-2421.2119.6618.90
2025-10-3120.6719.7218.91
2025-11-0720.4419.7418.91
2025-11-1420.9419.7918.94
2025-11-2119.7419.8318.94
2025-11-2820.4019.9018.94
2025-12-0519.7819.9418.96
2025-12-1220.1120.0218.98
2025-12-1920.1020.1019.00
2025-12-2620.0520.1419.02
2026-01-0220.4920.2119.04
2026-01-0920.9320.2719.06
2026-01-1619.8820.3219.08
2026-01-2319.3320.3519.09
2026-01-3019.8620.4019.10
2026-02-0619.9320.4419.10
2026-02-1319.4320.4719.11
2026-02-2720.4020.5119.11
2026-03-0621.0320.5619.13
2026-03-1321.6520.6219.15
2026-03-2020.9420.6519.16
2026-03-2720.2220.6819.16
2026-04-0319.3120.6819.16
2026-04-1020.4120.7119.17
2026-04-1721.6220.6719.18
2026-04-2421.5020.6319.18
2026-05-0122.4720.6319.20
2026-05-0821.9620.6519.21
2026-05-1521.8720.6219.23
2026-05-2219.7720.5519.24
2026-05-2920.1120.5119.25
2026-06-0518.1120.4319.25
2026-06-1218.0920.3519.25
2026-06-1917.1920.2219.24
2026-06-2616.2320.1119.23
2026-07-0317.9320.0219.23
2026-07-1018.5719.9819.23
2026-07-1719.0919.9519.25
2026-07-2417.8719.8719.25
2026-07-3119.0719.8419.26
2026-08-0718.5919.7819.26
2026-08-1418.3019.6919.26
2026-08-2118.7719.6519.27
2026-08-2819.5019.6619.28
2026-09-0421.4519.7119.31
4-week return 15.4%
13-week return 18.4%
26-week return 2.0%
52-week return 10.3%
From 52-week high -14.5%
26-week volatility 38.5%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 9.7% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 2 crestPrimary swing size · Leading50%
Possible bearish Wave 2 crestTactical swing size50%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Possible bearish Wave 2 crest

50% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 16.23 Fails above 22.47 Count stability Moderate · 68/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 22.47; Wave 2 21.45.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 84% of Wave 1.
Strategic degreeNo valid count

Strategic degree uses a 15.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Primary degree uses a 9.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Tactical degree uses a 6.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 32.2%

10 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 16.23

Pivot from 2026-06-26

Nearest confirmed resistance 22.47

Pivot from 2026-05-01

30-week trend 19.71

Price is 8.8% from trend

Fair Value reference 19.31

Price is 11.1% from Fair Value

52-week range position 62%

15.51 low · 25.09 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

6 of 7 available readings lean against the downward wave interpretation; 1 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

86% directional agreement

The other readings point the other way. 1 readings support the selected direction; 6 lean against it.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

8.8% above trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Rising
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are improving together.

Rising Stack
Relative strength

Outperforming its benchmark

+10.0
Market activity

Participation is weak

-0.7
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+0.6
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+8.0
Balance of readings Constructive

6 constructive, 1 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is weak. This supports the downward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Outperforming its benchmark. This challenges the downward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is positive. This challenges the downward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is rising. That supports the recent upswing, but it does not establish how long it will last.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 47/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseRising

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementRising Stack

75/100 constructive · 25/100 risk

Estimated next low11 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high13 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 9w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough3w
Possible next low3–9w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 20w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score5/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough9w
Possible next low5–17w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 48w
Current phaseTroughing
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough2w
Possible next low30–62w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 69w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score47/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough1w
Possible next low59–77w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 8.4% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 14.5% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Trend extension

    Price is 8.8% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 25/100.

  • Count instability

    The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability.

Downside risk check

Contained

11/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension4/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover0/15
Multi-cycle risk4/15
Count instability3/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low15.51
52-week high25.09
Annualised volatility38.5%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range5.9%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-8.4%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume180%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

29% constructive

7 of 24 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

46% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs 399001.SZMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks51145%-1.0%-0.7%-10.1% to 11.4%
13 weeks21839%-2.4%-1.6%-17.6% to 18.5%
26 weeks13540%-6.5%-3.5%-22.2% to 23.4%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was -2.3% across 67 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

67 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
-2.3%
13w
-5.3%
26w
-6.0%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 67 43% -2.3% -19.8% to 16.1%
13 weeks 67 39% -5.3% -25.6% to 22.7%
26 weeks 64 34% -6.0% -29.3% to 25.8%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-04 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 9.7% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2024-10-11 Confirmed Low 19.24 -12.5% 1 weeks
2024-11-08 Confirmed High 21.51 11.8% 4 weeks
2025-02-21 Confirmed Low 17.11 -20.5% 15 weeks
2025-04-11 Confirmed High 19.96 16.7% 7 weeks
2025-05-23 Confirmed Low 17.76 -11.0% 6 weeks
2025-09-12 Confirmed High 22.89 28.9% 16 weeks
2026-01-23 Confirmed Low 19.33 -15.6% 19 weeks
2026-03-13 Confirmed High 21.65 12.0% 6 weeks
2026-04-03 Confirmed Low 19.31 -10.8% 3 weeks
2026-05-01 Confirmed High 22.47 16.4% 4 weeks
2026-06-26 Confirmed Low 16.23 -27.8% 8 weeks
2026-09-04 Forming High 21.45 32.2% 10 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context