HKG · Consumer Cyclical · Weekly analysis

3997 Elliott Wave report

Telecom Service One Holdings Limited

Latest close HKD 1.16 Week ending 18 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

The wave count points to a decline

The selected pattern describes a move downward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

92/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Setup in timing window Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countPossible bearish Wave 3 declining

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings support this direction

6 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 1 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

Main uncertaintyModerate count stability

The leading count changed 2 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in HKD · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-09-290.45070.65981.44
2023-10-060.42250.63691.44
2023-10-130.42250.61751.44
2023-10-200.42250.60031.44
2023-10-270.37560.58181.43
2023-11-030.41780.56511.43
2023-11-100.3990.54651.43
2023-11-170.42250.52891.43
2023-11-240.38970.50841.43
2023-12-010.37560.49061.42
2023-12-080.38030.47351.42
2023-12-150.38970.45841.42
2023-12-220.40370.4491.42
2023-12-290.37090.43941.41
2024-01-050.36150.43141.41
2024-01-120.37560.42391.41
2024-01-190.35680.41741.41
2024-01-260.36150.41311.40
2024-02-020.34740.40941.40
2024-02-090.35680.40591.40
2024-02-160.34270.40281.39
2024-02-230.36620.39981.39
2024-03-010.35680.39721.39
2024-03-080.34740.3941.38
2024-03-150.33330.391.38
2024-03-220.34740.38781.38
2024-03-290.34740.38621.37
2024-04-050.34740.38421.37
2024-04-120.3380.381.37
2024-04-190.32860.37531.37
2024-04-260.34740.37181.36
2024-05-030.35680.36961.36
2024-05-100.36150.36761.35
2024-05-170.36620.36571.35
2024-05-240.35680.36511.35
2024-05-310.35680.36311.34
2024-06-070.34270.36121.34
2024-06-140.4460.3621.34
2024-06-210.35210.36071.33
2024-06-280.35680.36011.33
2024-07-050.34270.35881.32
2024-07-120.34270.35731.32
2024-07-190.37560.35631.31
2024-07-260.37560.35651.31
2024-08-020.39440.35761.31
2024-08-090.3990.35841.30
2024-08-160.3850.35931.30
2024-08-230.39440.36041.29
2024-08-300.3850.36161.29
2024-09-060.3850.36261.28
2024-09-130.38030.36381.28
2024-09-200.38030.36431.28
2024-09-270.38030.36511.27
2024-10-040.3990.36681.27
2024-10-110.3990.3691.26
2024-10-180.46950.37311.26
2024-10-250.73240.38591.25
2024-11-010.63850.39561.25
2024-11-080.59150.40411.24
2024-11-150.57280.41221.24
2024-11-220.53520.41851.23
2024-11-290.58210.4261.23
2024-12-060.61970.43461.23
2024-12-130.620.4431.22
2024-12-200.59090.45081.22
2024-12-270.59090.45861.21
2025-01-030.56190.46591.21
2025-01-100.62970.47211.20
2025-01-170.66840.48261.20
2025-01-240.66840.4931.20
2025-01-310.66840.50391.19
2025-02-070.66840.51471.19
2025-02-140.620.52291.18
2025-02-210.620.5311.18
2025-02-280.57160.53691.18
2025-03-070.57160.54271.17
2025-03-140.56190.54861.17
2025-03-210.57160.55451.16
2025-03-280.53280.55941.15
2025-04-040.51340.56371.14
2025-04-110.57160.57011.13
2025-04-180.51340.57451.11
2025-04-250.51340.57891.10
2025-05-020.53280.58341.09
2025-05-090.54250.58821.07
2025-05-160.51340.58961.06
2025-05-230.53280.5831.05
2025-05-300.53280.57951.04
2025-06-060.50380.57651.02
2025-06-130.51340.57461.01
2025-06-200.50380.57350.9944
2025-06-270.55220.57250.9812
2025-07-040.55220.57030.9675
2025-07-110.57160.56870.9551
2025-07-180.620.56960.9432
2025-07-250.620.57060.9297
2025-08-010.700.57520.9169
2025-08-080.680.57690.9041
2025-08-150.630.57560.8904
2025-08-220.650.5750.8765
2025-08-290.610.5730.855
2025-09-050.630.57180.8315
2025-09-120.650.57280.797
2025-09-190.600.57210.7641
2025-09-260.570.5720.7308
2025-10-030.700.57630.7015
2025-10-100.690.58060.6715
2025-10-170.700.58490.6381
2025-10-240.690.59010.6258
2025-10-310.720.5970.6205
2025-11-070.720.60190.6113
2025-11-140.730.60920.6015
2025-11-210.740.61670.5926
2025-11-280.750.62390.584
2025-12-050.720.62990.5759
2025-12-120.730.63710.5721
2025-12-190.720.64330.5681
2025-12-260.710.64920.5643
2026-01-020.740.65710.5627
2026-01-090.720.6640.5619
2026-01-160.800.67390.5616
2026-01-230.800.68210.5614
2026-01-300.810.69070.5613
2026-02-060.750.69670.5567
2026-02-130.760.70130.5538
2026-02-200.800.70730.5513
2026-02-270.830.71170.5492
2026-03-060.770.71470.547
2026-03-130.830.72130.5459
2026-03-200.990.73270.5462
2026-03-270.910.74270.5461
2026-04-030.860.75030.5457
2026-04-100.870.75770.5452
2026-04-171.010.77130.5455
2026-04-241.400.7990.5481
2026-05-011.780.8350.5537
2026-05-081.800.8720.5595
2026-05-151.680.90470.5648
2026-05-221.830.94270.5722
2026-05-292.791.010.5858
2026-06-052.751.080.5996
2026-06-122.801.150.6137
2026-06-193.031.220.6296
2026-06-263.151.300.6466
2026-07-034.991.450.6757
2026-07-102.951.520.6916
2026-07-171.951.560.7013
2026-07-242.251.610.7128
2026-07-312.001.660.7229
2026-08-071.811.690.7316
2026-08-141.801.720.7403
2026-08-211.561.750.7476
2026-08-281.591.780.7553
2026-09-041.281.790.7609
2026-09-111.211.810.7656
2026-09-181.161.820.77
4-week return -26.0%
13-week return -61.9%
26-week return 16.7%
52-week return 92.5%
From 52-week high -76.9%
26-week volatility 158.9%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 14.2% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 3 decliningPrimary swing size · Leading38%
A/B/C reset may be completingPrimary swing size23%
Possible bearish Wave 3 decliningTactical swing size38%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Possible bearish Wave 3 declining

38% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 1.16 Fails above 2.25 Count stability Moderate · 68/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 4.99; Wave 2 2.25.
PassWave 3 exceeds Wave 1Wave 1 1.95; Wave 3 1.16.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 10% of Wave 1.
GuidelineWave 3 extension is plausibleWave 3 is 0.36× Wave 1.
Strategic degreePossible Wave 2 trough

Strategic degree uses a 22.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible bearish Wave 3 declining

Primary degree uses a 14.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible bearish Wave 3 declining

Tactical degree uses a 10.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing -48.7%

8 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.57

Pivot from 2025-09-26

Nearest confirmed resistance 2.25

Pivot from 2026-07-24

30-week trend 1.82

Price is -36.6% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.77

Price is 50.0% from Fair Value

52-week range position 13%

0.57 low · 4.99 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

6 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 1 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

86% directional agreement

The other readings support this direction. 6 readings support the selected direction; 1 lean against it.

Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

36.6% below trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is not rising.

Falling
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are weakening together.

Falling Stack
Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-13.6
Market activity

Participation is weak

-26.8
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-0.8
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+44.4
Balance of readings Defensive

1 constructive, 6 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is weak. This supports the downward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark. This supports the downward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is positive. This challenges the downward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is weak. This supports the downward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is falling. A recovery in price needs support from the other readings.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 59/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseFalling

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementFalling Stack

25/100 constructive · 75/100 risk

Estimated next low2 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high17 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 8w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough23w
Possible next low0–4w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 25w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score18/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough23w
Possible next low0–6w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 30w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score58/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough28w
Possible next low0–8w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 100w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score59/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough65w
Possible next low23–47w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 80.8% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 76.9% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Cycle rollover

    Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 75/100.

  • Count instability

    The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability.

Downside risk check

Contained

25/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover11/15
Multi-cycle risk11/15
Count instability3/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.57
52-week high4.99
Annualised volatility158.9%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range14.9%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-80.8%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume55%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

35% constructive

8 of 23 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

9% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^HSIMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks19246%-0.6%-1.0%-13.2% to 16.1%
13 weeks10652%1.7%-3.0%-16.2% to 34.6%
26 weeks9352%1.5%3.4%-26.4% to 46.7%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was -4.4% across 46 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

47 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
-4.4%
13w
-7.9%
26w
-22.7%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 46 37% -4.4% -50.0% to 75.3%
13 weeks 46 44% -7.9% -47.5% to 31.4%
26 weeks 46 41% -22.7% -69.9% to 83.7%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-18 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 14.2% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2024-06-14 Confirmed High 0.446 35.7% 8 weeks
2024-07-12 Confirmed Low 0.3427 -23.2% 4 weeks
2024-10-25 Confirmed High 0.7324 113.7% 15 weeks
2024-11-22 Confirmed Low 0.5352 -26.9% 4 weeks
2025-02-07 Confirmed High 0.6684 24.9% 11 weeks
2025-06-20 Confirmed Low 0.5038 -24.6% 19 weeks
2025-08-01 Confirmed High 0.70 39.0% 6 weeks
2025-09-26 Confirmed Low 0.57 -18.6% 8 weeks
2026-07-03 Confirmed High 4.99 775.4% 40 weeks
2026-07-17 Confirmed Low 1.95 -60.9% 2 weeks
2026-07-24 Confirmed High 2.25 15.4% 1 weeks
2026-09-18 Forming Low 1.16 -48.7% 8 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context