HKG · Consumer Defensive · Weekly analysis

0926 Elliott Wave report

Besunyen Holdings Company Limited

Latest close HKD 2.38 Week ending 4 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

A pullback is being tested

The wave pattern treats the recent decline as a pullback within a larger advance. A fresh rise is still something to confirm.

67/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Watching Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countWave + Hurst trough confluence

A, B and C label a three-part correction. The outlined last point is still forming.

Other readingsThe other readings point the other way

5 of 7 available readings lean against the upward wave interpretation; 2 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

Main uncertaintyModerate count stability

The leading count changed 2 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in HKD · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-09-153.152.023.32
2023-09-223.112.063.31
2023-09-292.672.093.29
2023-10-062.692.123.28
2023-10-132.682.153.27
2023-10-202.652.173.25
2023-10-272.542.193.24
2023-11-032.512.203.23
2023-11-102.572.223.21
2023-11-172.302.223.19
2023-11-242.162.223.18
2023-12-012.162.223.16
2023-12-082.262.233.14
2023-12-152.362.243.12
2023-12-222.232.253.11
2023-12-291.992.253.09
2024-01-051.952.253.07
2024-01-121.942.263.06
2024-01-191.962.263.04
2024-01-262.132.273.02
2024-02-022.002.273.00
2024-02-091.692.272.97
2024-02-161.902.272.95
2024-02-231.802.272.92
2024-03-011.842.262.90
2024-03-082.172.272.87
2024-03-152.192.272.85
2024-03-222.142.272.83
2024-03-292.102.282.81
2024-04-052.222.272.79
2024-04-122.232.242.77
2024-04-192.782.232.75
2024-04-262.532.222.73
2024-05-031.862.192.71
2024-05-101.862.172.68
2024-05-171.972.142.66
2024-05-242.082.132.64
2024-05-312.132.122.61
2024-06-072.222.102.59
2024-06-142.262.102.57
2024-06-212.142.102.54
2024-06-282.152.102.52
2024-07-052.152.102.49
2024-07-122.132.092.46
2024-07-192.062.082.42
2024-07-262.102.092.39
2024-08-022.092.092.35
2024-08-092.092.102.31
2024-08-162.422.112.29
2024-08-232.272.122.26
2024-08-302.272.132.24
2024-09-062.342.152.22
2024-09-132.242.162.19
2024-09-202.282.182.18
2024-09-272.302.192.15
2024-10-042.652.212.14
2024-10-112.242.212.12
2024-10-182.152.212.10
2024-10-252.142.212.09
2024-11-012.152.212.08
2024-11-082.202.212.06
2024-11-152.102.192.05
2024-11-222.132.172.04
2024-11-292.152.182.03
2024-12-062.062.192.02
2024-12-132.242.202.02
2024-12-202.062.202.01
2024-12-272.102.202.00
2025-01-032.052.191.99
2025-01-102.042.181.98
2025-01-171.992.181.98
2025-01-241.992.171.97
2025-01-312.052.171.96
2025-02-072.042.171.96
2025-02-142.022.161.95
2025-02-211.882.161.94
2025-02-281.942.151.94
2025-03-071.812.141.94
2025-03-141.762.121.94
2025-03-211.762.101.94
2025-03-282.172.101.94
2025-04-042.102.091.94
2025-04-112.042.091.94
2025-04-182.042.081.94
2025-04-251.942.071.95
2025-05-022.092.051.95
2025-05-092.012.041.95
2025-05-162.032.041.96
2025-05-231.982.031.96
2025-05-302.072.031.96
2025-06-062.202.031.97
2025-06-132.092.031.97
2025-06-202.332.031.98
2025-06-272.252.041.99
2025-07-042.312.052.00
2025-07-112.162.042.00
2025-07-182.192.052.01
2025-07-252.192.052.02
2025-08-012.282.062.02
2025-08-082.842.082.03
2025-08-152.722.112.04
2025-08-222.852.142.05
2025-08-292.762.162.05
2025-09-052.732.182.06
2025-09-122.682.212.07
2025-09-192.542.232.08
2025-09-262.692.252.09
2025-10-032.652.282.10
2025-10-102.632.312.11
2025-10-172.602.342.11
2025-10-242.532.352.12
2025-10-312.582.372.13
2025-11-072.522.382.14
2025-11-142.552.402.14
2025-11-212.392.412.15
2025-11-282.422.432.16
2025-12-052.372.442.16
2025-12-122.382.452.16
2025-12-192.392.462.17
2025-12-262.392.472.17
2026-01-022.392.482.18
2026-01-092.552.502.18
2026-01-162.662.512.19
2026-01-232.672.522.19
2026-01-302.582.532.20
2026-02-062.522.542.20
2026-02-132.622.562.21
2026-02-202.632.572.22
2026-02-272.522.582.22
2026-03-062.492.572.22
2026-03-132.452.562.23
2026-03-202.472.542.23
2026-03-272.482.542.23
2026-04-032.432.532.24
2026-04-102.502.522.24
2026-04-172.502.522.24
2026-04-242.422.512.24
2026-05-012.432.502.24
2026-05-082.512.502.25
2026-05-152.472.492.25
2026-05-222.502.492.25
2026-05-292.452.492.26
2026-06-052.442.492.26
2026-06-122.442.482.26
2026-06-192.452.482.27
2026-06-262.452.482.27
2026-07-032.432.492.28
2026-07-102.402.492.28
2026-07-172.412.492.28
2026-07-242.392.492.29
2026-07-312.392.492.29
2026-08-072.392.482.29
2026-08-142.402.472.29
2026-08-212.452.472.30
2026-08-282.432.462.30
2026-09-042.382.462.30
4-week return -0.4%
13-week return -2.5%
26-week return -4.4%
52-week return -12.8%
From 52-week high -16.8%
26-week volatility 10.7%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 6.6% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

A/B/C reset may be completingPrimary swing size · Leading45%
Possible Wave 2 troughPrimary swing size9%
A/B/C reset may be completingStrategic swing size45%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

A/B/C reset may be completing

45% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm above 2.67 Fails below 2.38 Count stability Moderate · 68/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave B protects the correction originOrigin 2.85; Wave B 2.67.
PassWave C progresses beyond Wave AA length 0.48; C length 0.29.
GuidelineWave C is proportionate to Wave AWave C is 0.60× Wave A.
Strategic degreeA/B/C reset may be completing

Strategic degree uses a 10.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreeA/B/C reset may be completing

Primary degree uses a 6.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreeA/B/C reset may be completing

Tactical degree uses a 4.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing -10.9%

32 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 2.37

Pivot from 2025-12-05

Nearest confirmed resistance 2.67

Pivot from 2026-01-23

30-week trend 2.46

Price is -3.1% from trend

Fair Value reference 2.30

Price is 3.6% from Fair Value

52-week range position 11%

2.32 low · 2.86 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

5 of 7 available readings lean against the upward wave interpretation; 2 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

71% directional agreement

The other readings point the other way. 2 readings support the selected direction; 5 lean against it.

Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

3.1% below trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Rising
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are improving together.

Rising Stack
Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-4.1
Market activity

Participation is weak

-5.8
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-0.5
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-5.6
Balance of readings Defensive

2 constructive, 5 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is weak. This challenges the upward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark. This challenges the upward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is negative. This challenges the upward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is weak. This challenges the upward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is rising. That supports the recent upswing, but it does not establish how long it will last.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 59/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseRising

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementRising Stack

75/100 constructive · 25/100 risk

Estimated next low20 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high16 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 12w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough5w
Possible next low4–10w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 25w
Current phaseTroughing
Repeat score11/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough5w
Possible next low12–28w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 30w
Current phaseTroughing
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough3w
Possible next low21–33w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 100w
Current phaseCresting
Repeat score59/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough66w
Possible next low22–46w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 71.7% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 16.8% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 25/100.

  • Count instability

    The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability.

Downside risk check

Contained

7/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover0/15
Multi-cycle risk4/15
Count instability3/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low2.32
52-week high2.86
Annualised volatility10.7%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range0.7%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-71.7%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume29%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

45% constructive

9 of 20 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

30% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^HSIMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks50644%-1.0%-1.5%-12.0% to 13.8%
13 weeks18244%-3.2%-3.0%-22.9% to 22.3%
26 weeks9937%-6.0%-8.6%-29.1% to 27.1%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was -0.2% across 50 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

51 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
-0.2%
13w
5.3%
26w
24.5%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 50 44% -0.2% -22.7% to 28.4%
13 weeks 47 72% 5.3% -14.6% to 60.6%
26 weeks 42 91% 24.5% -4.4% to 78.9%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-04 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 6.6% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2024-10-04 Confirmed High 2.65 18.4% 3 weeks
2024-12-06 Confirmed Low 2.06 -22.1% 9 weeks
2024-12-13 Confirmed High 2.24 8.4% 1 weeks
2025-03-21 Confirmed Low 1.76 -21.2% 14 weeks
2025-03-28 Confirmed High 2.17 23.3% 1 weeks
2025-04-25 Confirmed Low 1.94 -10.9% 4 weeks
2025-06-20 Confirmed High 2.33 20.3% 8 weeks
2025-07-11 Confirmed Low 2.16 -7.3% 3 weeks
2025-08-22 Confirmed High 2.85 32.2% 6 weeks
2025-12-05 Confirmed Low 2.37 -16.9% 15 weeks
2026-01-23 Confirmed High 2.67 12.7% 7 weeks
2026-09-04 Forming Low 2.38 -10.9% 32 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context