MEX · Market · Weekly analysis

AMLP Elliott Wave report

Alerian MLP ETF

Latest close MXN 905.00 Week ending 11 Sep 2026 History 71 weeks
Current reading

The wave count points to an advance

The selected pattern describes a move upward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

95/100 Setup score 61/100 Data quality Triggered Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countWave + Hurst trough confluence

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings support this direction

6 of 7 available readings support the upward wave interpretation; 1 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

Main uncertaintyUnavailable count stability

The most recent swing is still forming and can extend. A settled label needs a confirmed reversal.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in MXN · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2025-05-0946.31Unavailable46.31
2025-05-16915.06Unavailable480.69
2025-05-23915.06Unavailable625.48
2025-05-30915.06Unavailable697.87
2025-06-06915.06Unavailable741.31
2025-06-13915.06Unavailable770.27
2025-06-20904.33Unavailable789.42
2025-06-27904.33Unavailable803.78
2025-07-04904.33Unavailable814.96
2025-07-11904.33Unavailable823.89
2025-07-18904.33Unavailable831.20
2025-07-25904.33Unavailable837.30
2025-08-01904.33Unavailable842.45
2025-08-08904.33Unavailable846.87
2025-08-15905.27Unavailable850.77
2025-08-22905.27Unavailable854.17
2025-08-29862.95Unavailable854.69
2025-09-05862.95Unavailable855.15
2025-09-12862.95Unavailable855.56
2025-09-19862.95Unavailable855.93
2025-09-26862.95Unavailable856.26
2025-10-03862.95Unavailable856.57
2025-10-10862.95Unavailable856.85
2025-10-17806.39Unavailable854.74
2025-10-24830.39Unavailable853.77
2025-10-31830.39Unavailable852.87
2025-11-07839.99Unavailable852.39
2025-11-14838.79Unavailable851.91
2025-11-21838.79Unavailable851.45
2025-11-28838.79851.03851.03
2025-12-05838.79877.45850.64
2025-12-12838.79874.91850.27
2025-12-19838.79872.36849.92
2025-12-26838.79869.82849.59
2026-01-02838.79867.28849.28
2026-01-09838.79864.74848.99
2026-01-16838.79862.55848.72
2026-01-23839.03860.38848.46
2026-01-30855.37858.74848.64
2026-02-06855.37857.11848.81
2026-02-13872.43856.05849.38
2026-02-20872.43854.99849.93
2026-02-27872.43853.92850.46
2026-03-06872.43852.86850.96
2026-03-13872.43851.76851.43
2026-03-20937.13852.83853.30
2026-03-27948.08855.66855.31
2026-04-03900.61856.92856.26
2026-04-10900.61858.18857.16
2026-04-17871.53858.46857.45
2026-04-24880.08859.03857.89
2026-05-01880.08859.60858.32
2026-05-08880.08860.17858.73
2026-05-15897.80863.22859.45
2026-05-22918.75866.17860.53
2026-05-29906.00868.69861.34
2026-06-05906.00870.89862.13
2026-06-12906.00873.13862.88
2026-06-19906.00875.37863.61
2026-06-26906.00877.61864.32
2026-07-03906.00879.85865.00
2026-07-10887.43881.47865.37
2026-07-17887.43883.09865.72
2026-07-24887.43884.71866.05
2026-07-31887.43886.33866.38
2026-08-07887.43887.95866.70
2026-08-14905.00890.16867.27
2026-08-21905.00892.36867.83
2026-08-28905.00894.01868.37
2026-09-04905.00895.67868.89
2026-09-11905.00896.75869.40
4-week return 0.0%
13-week return -0.1%
26-week return 3.7%
52-week return 4.9%
From 52-week high -4.5%
26-week volatility 14.9%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 5.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible Wave 2 troughPrimary swing size · Leading33%
A/B/C reset may be completingPrimary swing size33%
Possible Wave 2 troughTactical swing size33%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Possible Wave 2 trough

33% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm above 918.75 Fails below 871.53 Count stability Unavailable · 0/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 871.53; Wave 2 905.00.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 29% of Wave 1.
Strategic degreeNo valid count

Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible Wave 2 trough

Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible Wave 2 trough

Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing -1.5%

16 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 871.53

Pivot from 2026-04-17

Nearest confirmed resistance 918.75

Pivot from 2026-05-22

30-week trend 896.75

Price is 0.9% from trend

Fair Value reference 869.40

Price is 4.1% from Fair Value

52-week range position 70%

806.39 low · 948.08 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

6 of 7 available readings support the upward wave interpretation; 1 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

86% directional agreement

The other readings support this direction. 6 readings support the selected direction; 1 lean against it.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

0.9% above trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Rising
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are improving together.

Rising Stack
Relative strength

Outperforming its benchmark

+6.9
Market activity

Participation is supportive

+23.5
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-1.1
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+3.7
Balance of readings Constructive

6 constructive, 1 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive. This supports the upward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Outperforming its benchmark. This supports the upward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is positive. This supports the upward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is weak. This challenges the upward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is rising. That supports the recent upswing, but it does not establish how long it will last.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 0/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseRising

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementRising Stack

88/100 constructive · 12/100 risk

Estimated next low20 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high2 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 12w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough5w
Possible next low5–9w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 25w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough5w
Possible next low10–30w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 40w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough4w
Possible next low28–44w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 80w
Current phaseWarming
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough-
Possible next low-
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 4.5% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 4.5% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Count instability

    The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability.

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 12/100.

Downside risk check

Contained

12/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover0/15
Multi-cycle risk2/15
Count instability10/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low806.39
52-week high948.08
Annualised volatility14.9%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range0.1%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-4.5%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume402%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

45% constructive

10 of 22 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

18% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Only options information is available

Options: Bullish · 43/100 conviction · ±1.5% expected move

Stored options pressure is bullish with 43/100 conviction.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^MXXMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks6955%0.3%-1.2%-5.6% to 5.1%
13 weeks4459%2.3%-2.3%-7.7% to 10.8%
26 weeks3566%3.4%-5.5%-8.6% to 22.0%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

There are not enough completed, comparable outcomes to draw a useful historical comparison.

0 similar weekly states
Not enough comparable history yet

Historical context appears only when at least eight completed outcomes are available for one of the measured horizons.

At least 90 weekly observations are required.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality61/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
27/100
Indicator coverage
77/100
Confirmed structure
83/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-11 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 5.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2025-10-10 Confirmed High 862.95 - 0 weeks
2025-10-17 Confirmed Low 806.39 -6.6% 1 weeks
2026-03-27 Confirmed High 948.08 17.6% 23 weeks
2026-04-17 Confirmed Low 871.53 -8.1% 3 weeks
2026-05-22 Confirmed High 918.75 5.4% 5 weeks
2026-09-11 Forming Low 905.00 -1.5% 16 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context