HKG · Consumer Cyclical · Weekly analysis

8081 Elliott Wave report

Baijuyi Holdings Group Limited

Latest close HKD 0.015 Week ending 11 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks

Current reading

The wave count points to a decline

The selected pattern describes a move downward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

55/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Watching Setup status

A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.

How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countPossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings support this direction

4 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 3 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

Main uncertaintyHigh count stability

The leading count changed 1 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values

Prices in HKD · the history displayed on the chart
Week ending	Close	30-week trend	Fair Value
2023-09-22	0.093	0.0962	0.0952
2023-09-29	0.11	0.0969	0.0954
2023-10-06	0.10	0.0974	0.0956
2023-10-13	0.104	0.0979	0.0957
2023-10-20	0.095	0.0981	0.0958
2023-10-27	0.099	0.0982	0.096
2023-11-03	0.096	0.0981	0.0961
2023-11-10	0.10	0.0984	0.0963
2023-11-17	0.104	0.0989	0.0966
2023-11-24	0.104	0.0994	0.0968
2023-12-01	0.098	0.0998	0.0969
2023-12-08	0.105	0.1002	0.0971
2023-12-15	0.10	0.1007	0.0973
2023-12-22	0.097	0.1009	0.0975
2023-12-29	0.09	0.1006	0.0976
2024-01-05	0.09	0.1002	0.0978
2024-01-12	0.085	0.0997	0.0979
2024-01-19	0.075	0.0988	0.098
2024-01-26	0.071	0.0977	0.0981
2024-02-02	0.08	0.097	0.0981
2024-02-09	0.096	0.0967	0.0983
2024-02-16	0.094	0.0965	0.0984
2024-02-23	0.084	0.096	0.0985
2024-03-01	0.095	0.0959	0.0986
2024-03-08	0.091	0.0952	0.0987
2024-03-15	0.078	0.0944	0.0989
2024-03-22	0.051	0.0928	0.0989
2024-03-29	0.054	0.0913	0.0988
2024-04-05	0.051	0.0898	0.0987
2024-04-12	0.055	0.0882	0.0986
2024-04-19	0.059	0.087	0.0985
2024-04-26	0.059	0.0853	0.0984
2024-05-03	0.06	0.084	0.0983
2024-05-10	0.06	0.0825	0.0982
2024-05-17	0.059	0.0813	0.0981
2024-05-24	0.059	0.08	0.098
2024-05-31	0.06	0.0788	0.0979
2024-06-07	0.06	0.0775	0.0978
2024-06-14	0.069	0.0763	0.0977
2024-06-21	0.049	0.0745	0.0975
2024-06-28	0.055	0.073	0.0974
2024-07-05	0.047	0.0711	0.0972
2024-07-12	0.05	0.0694	0.097
2024-07-19	0.05	0.0679	0.0968
2024-07-26	0.051	0.0666	0.0966
2024-08-02	0.051	0.0653	0.0964
2024-08-09	0.048	0.064	0.0962
2024-08-16	0.045	0.063	0.0958
2024-08-23	0.039	0.062	0.0952
2024-08-30	0.046	0.0608	0.0947
2024-09-06	0.047	0.0592	0.094
2024-09-13	0.044	0.0575	0.0932
2024-09-20	0.043	0.0562	0.0924
2024-09-27	0.034	0.0541	0.0916
2024-10-04	0.049	0.0527	0.0909
2024-10-11	0.053	0.0519	0.0902
2024-10-18	0.051	0.0519	0.0895
2024-10-25	0.048	0.0517	0.0889
2024-11-01	0.043	0.0514	0.0884
2024-11-08	0.043	0.051	0.0878
2024-11-15	0.041	0.0504	0.0873
2024-11-22	0.044	0.0499	0.0868
2024-11-29	0.044	0.0494	0.0864
2024-12-06	0.042	0.0488	0.086
2024-12-13	0.044	0.0483	0.0858
2024-12-20	0.043	0.0478	0.0854
2024-12-27	0.041	0.0471	0.0849
2025-01-03	0.053	0.0469	0.0846
2025-01-10	0.046	0.0461	0.0843
2025-01-17	0.048	0.0461	0.0839
2025-01-24	0.044	0.0457	0.0835
2025-01-31	0.044	0.0456	0.0831
2025-02-07	0.044	0.0454	0.0828
2025-02-14	0.046	0.0453	0.0824
2025-02-21	0.042	0.045	0.0821
2025-02-28	0.054	0.0451	0.0818
2025-03-07	0.051	0.0452	0.0815
2025-03-14	0.048	0.0453	0.0811
2025-03-21	0.049	0.0456	0.0808
2025-03-28	0.05	0.0458	0.0805
2025-04-04	0.052	0.0459	0.08
2025-04-11	0.046	0.046	0.0795
2025-04-18	0.049	0.0462	0.079
2025-04-25	0.048	0.0467	0.0786
2025-05-02	0.048	0.0466	0.0782
2025-05-09	0.046	0.0464	0.0779
2025-05-16	0.043	0.0461	0.0774
2025-05-23	0.043	0.046	0.077
2025-05-30	0.038	0.0458	0.0766
2025-06-06	0.043	0.0458	0.0762
2025-06-13	0.044	0.0459	0.0759
2025-06-20	0.042	0.0458	0.0755
2025-06-27	0.044	0.0458	0.0751
2025-07-04	0.052	0.0462	0.0747
2025-07-11	0.047	0.0463	0.0743
2025-07-18	0.035	0.046	0.0739
2025-07-25	0.027	0.0455	0.0734
2025-08-01	0.022	0.0445	0.0729
2025-08-08	0.019	0.0436	0.0724
2025-08-15	0.014	0.0425	0.0719
2025-08-22	0.016	0.0415	0.0714
2025-08-29	0.017	0.0406	0.0709
2025-09-05	0.016	0.0397	0.0704
2025-09-12	0.016	0.0387	0.0699
2025-09-19	0.017	0.0379	0.0694
2025-09-26	0.022	0.0368	0.069
2025-10-03	0.021	0.0358	0.0685
2025-10-10	0.019	0.0348	0.0681
2025-10-17	0.02	0.0339	0.0675
2025-10-24	0.018	0.0328	0.067
2025-10-31	0.018	0.0317	0.0665
2025-11-07	0.021	0.0308	0.066
2025-11-14	0.019	0.0298	0.0656
2025-11-21	0.019	0.0289	0.0651
2025-11-28	0.019	0.0279	0.0647
2025-12-05	0.017	0.0269	0.0641
2025-12-12	0.015	0.026	0.0636
2025-12-19	0.018	0.0252	0.0631
2025-12-26	0.018	0.0245	0.0626
2026-01-02	0.018	0.0237	0.0621
2026-01-09	0.018	0.0228	0.0616
2026-01-16	0.019	0.022	0.0611
2026-01-23	0.021	0.0213	0.0607
2026-01-30	0.021	0.0202	0.0602
2026-02-06	0.02	0.0193	0.0598
2026-02-13	0.02	0.0188	0.0593
2026-02-20	0.02	0.0186	0.0589
2026-02-27	0.02	0.0185	0.0585
2026-03-06	0.018	0.0185	0.058
2026-03-13	0.019	0.0187	0.0576
2026-03-20	0.022	0.0189	0.0572
2026-03-27	0.022	0.019	0.0567
2026-04-03	0.019	0.0191	0.0562
2026-04-10	0.02	0.0193	0.0557
2026-04-17	0.02	0.0194	0.0553
2026-04-24	0.017	0.0192	0.0548
2026-05-01	0.017	0.0191	0.0544
2026-05-08	0.017	0.019	0.0539
2026-05-15	0.017	0.0189	0.0535
2026-05-22	0.016	0.0188	0.053
2026-05-29	0.015	0.0187	0.0524
2026-06-05	0.014	0.0185	0.0519
2026-06-12	0.014	0.0183	0.0513
2026-06-19	0.014	0.0182	0.0508
2026-06-26	0.012	0.0179	0.0502
2026-07-03	0.012	0.0178	0.0496
2026-07-10	0.012	0.0177	0.049
2026-07-17	0.012	0.0175	0.0484
2026-07-24	0.013	0.0173	0.0479
2026-07-31	0.013	0.0171	0.0473
2026-08-07	0.013	0.017	0.0467
2026-08-14	0.013	0.0168	0.0461
2026-08-21	0.012	0.0165	0.0456
2026-08-28	0.013	0.0162	0.045
2026-09-04	0.015	0.016	0.0445
2026-09-11	0.015	0.0159	0.0439

What to watch next

Weekly closing levels

Read these with the wave count, not as automatic trade instructions.

Supports the wave viewBelow HKD 0.012 -20.0% from the latest close

A weekly close beyond this level would support the selected direction. Check the other readings too.

Changes the wave viewAbove HKD 0.022 46.7% from the latest close

A weekly close beyond this level would break the current directional interpretation.

Earlier confirmed swing HKD 0.022

A separate, confirmed price reference for the wider structure. It is not the current count’s failure level.

Confirmed 2026-03-27

Check the wave count and alternatives ↓

4-week return 15.4%

13-week return 7.1%

26-week return -21.1%

52-week return -6.3%

From 52-week high -44.4%

26-week volatility 53.6%

02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 16.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 2 crestPrimary swing size · Leading33%

Possible bearish Wave 2 crestStrategic swing size33%

Possible bearish Wave 2 crestTactical swing size33%

Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.

Leading wave count

Possible bearish Wave 2 crest

33% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 0.012 Fails above 0.022 Count stability High · 84/100

Wave rules and proportions

PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 0.022; Wave 2 0.015.

GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 30% of Wave 1.

Strategic degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 25.0%

3 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.012

Pivot from 2026-08-21

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.022

Pivot from 2026-03-27

30-week trend 0.0159

Price is -5.5% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.0439

Price is -65.9% from Fair Value

52-week range position 25%

0.011 low · 0.027 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

4 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 3 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

57% directional agreement

The other readings support this direction. 4 readings support the selected direction; 3 lean against it.

Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

5.5% below trend

Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Troughing

Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are improving together.

Rising Stack

Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-9.4

Market activity

Participation is weak

-45.7

Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+0.6

30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-25.0

Balance of readings Defensive

3 constructive, 4 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is weak. This supports the downward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark. This supports the downward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is negative. This supports the downward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is near a low and starting to turn. Look for price to confirm an upswing.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 57/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseTroughing

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementRising Stack

100/100 constructive · 0/100 risk

Estimated next low6 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high11 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 12w

Current phaseRising

Repeat score6/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough3w

Possible next low7–11w

Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w

Current phaseRising

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough9w

Possible next low2–10w

Typical / observed cycle40w / 49w

Current phaseTroughing

Repeat score3/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough6w

Possible next low33–53w

Typical / observed cycle80w / 71w

Current phaseTroughing

Repeat score57/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough6w

Possible next low56–74w

05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 90.9% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 44.4% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

Count instability
The primary interpretation has high recent stability.

Downside risk check

Contained

2/100

Wave maturity0/25

Trend extension0/20

Range position0/15

Cycle rollover0/15

Multi-cycle risk0/15

Count instability2/10

Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.011

52-week high0.027

Annualised volatility53.6%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range9.2%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-90.9%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume153%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

48% constructive

11 of 23 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

17% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.

Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.

Peer-state horizon	Non-overlapping samples	Positive	Median	Median excess vs ^HSI	Middle 80% of returns
4 weeks	199	45%	-0.9%	-0.4%	-14.3% to 15.5%
13 weeks	119	42%	-1.7%	-2.0%	-24.3% to 28.0%
26 weeks	94	45%	-3.5%	-2.5%	-29.5% to 29.6%

07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was -2.3% across 95 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

96 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

-2.3%

13w

-2.0%

26w

-8.9%

Horizon	Matches	Positive	Median	Range
4 weeks	95	42%	-2.3%	-60.0% to 26.2%
13 weeks	93	41%	-2.0%	-50.0% to 26.7%
26 weeks	90	32%	-8.9%	-69.6% to 29.4%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations

Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history: 100/100
Indicator coverage: 100/100
Confirmed structure: 100/100

Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-11 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.

How the count is built

Rules and data notes

Swing points use weekly closes and a 16.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.

Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

Date	Status	Type	Price	Move	Duration
2025-02-21	Confirmed	Low	0.042	-20.8%	7 weeks
2025-02-28	Confirmed	High	0.054	28.6%	1 weeks
2025-05-30	Confirmed	Low	0.038	-29.6%	13 weeks
2025-07-04	Confirmed	High	0.052	36.8%	5 weeks
2025-08-15	Confirmed	Low	0.014	-73.1%	6 weeks
2025-09-26	Confirmed	High	0.022	57.1%	6 weeks
2025-10-31	Confirmed	Low	0.018	-18.2%	5 weeks
2025-11-07	Confirmed	High	0.021	16.7%	1 weeks
2025-12-12	Confirmed	Low	0.015	-28.6%	5 weeks
2026-03-27	Confirmed	High	0.022	46.7%	15 weeks
2026-08-21	Confirmed	Low	0.012	-45.5%	21 weeks
2026-09-11	Forming	High	0.015	25.0%	3 weeks