ASX · Real Estate · Weekly analysis

TIA Elliott Wave report

Tian An Australia Limited

Latest close AUD 0.17 Week ending 11 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

The wave count points to a decline

The selected pattern describes a move downward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

67/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Setup in timing window Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countPossible bearish Wave 3 declining

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings support this direction

5 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 2 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

Main uncertaintyHigh count stability

The most recent swing is still forming and can extend. A settled label needs a confirmed reversal.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in AUD · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-09-220.2650.28380.2789
2023-09-290.290.28250.2796
2023-10-060.290.28120.2804
2023-10-130.3050.28230.2811
2023-10-200.2650.28220.2813
2023-10-270.2650.28170.2818
2023-11-030.2050.27930.2817
2023-11-100.2150.27680.2817
2023-11-170.2150.27420.2814
2023-11-240.240.27230.2812
2023-12-010.240.27050.281
2023-12-080.210.26780.2808
2023-12-150.210.26520.2805
2023-12-220.210.26320.2803
2023-12-290.210.26070.28
2024-01-050.210.25830.2796
2024-01-120.200.25570.2792
2024-01-190.2150.25280.2788
2024-01-260.2150.25020.2787
2024-02-020.2150.24750.2779
2024-02-090.2150.24480.2772
2024-02-160.2150.24270.2763
2024-02-230.250.24220.2755
2024-03-010.250.24130.2746
2024-03-080.250.240.2738
2024-03-150.250.23920.2732
2024-03-220.250.23830.2729
2024-03-290.2250.23720.2725
2024-04-050.2250.2360.2722
2024-04-120.2250.23480.2713
2024-04-190.2250.23350.2708
2024-04-260.2250.23130.2702
2024-05-030.2250.22920.2696
2024-05-100.230.22670.2691
2024-05-170.2250.22530.2683
2024-05-240.2250.2240.2676
2024-05-310.2250.22470.2671
2024-06-070.2250.2250.2664
2024-06-140.2250.22530.2659
2024-06-210.2250.22480.2654
2024-06-280.2250.22430.2649
2024-07-050.2250.22480.2643
2024-07-120.260.22650.2639
2024-07-190.220.22680.2632
2024-07-260.220.22720.2626
2024-08-020.2250.22770.2621
2024-08-090.230.22870.2617
2024-08-160.220.22880.2612
2024-08-230.2150.22880.2606
2024-08-300.210.22870.2599
2024-09-060.210.22850.2593
2024-09-130.2050.22820.2586
2024-09-200.2050.22670.2579
2024-09-270.2050.22520.2573
2024-10-040.200.22350.2566
2024-10-110.1850.22130.2559
2024-10-180.200.21970.2552
2024-10-250.200.21880.2545
2024-11-010.200.2180.2538
2024-11-080.200.21720.2531
2024-11-150.200.21630.2524
2024-11-220.1950.21530.2517
2024-11-290.200.21450.2512
2024-12-060.200.21350.2507
2024-12-130.200.21270.2502
2024-12-200.1950.21170.2496
2024-12-270.1950.21070.2491
2025-01-030.1950.20970.2485
2025-01-100.1850.20830.2478
2025-01-170.1850.2070.2472
2025-01-240.190.20580.2466
2025-01-310.190.20470.246
2025-02-070.190.20230.2454
2025-02-140.190.20130.2447
2025-02-210.190.20030.2441
2025-02-280.190.19920.2435
2025-03-070.190.19780.2428
2025-03-140.190.19680.2422
2025-03-210.190.1960.2415
2025-03-280.190.19530.2412
2025-04-040.180.19430.2407
2025-04-110.180.19350.2403
2025-04-180.1550.19180.2396
2025-04-250.1550.19020.239
2025-05-020.1550.18870.2384
2025-05-090.1650.1880.2378
2025-05-160.1650.18680.2373
2025-05-230.1650.18570.2367
2025-05-300.1650.18450.2362
2025-06-060.1650.18330.2356
2025-06-130.170.18230.2351
2025-06-200.1650.18130.2346
2025-06-270.1550.17980.234
2025-07-040.1550.17830.2334
2025-07-110.1550.17680.2327
2025-07-180.160.17570.2319
2025-07-250.1550.17430.231
2025-08-010.1550.1730.2301
2025-08-080.1550.1720.2296
2025-08-150.1550.1710.2292
2025-08-220.1750.17050.2288
2025-08-290.1750.170.2285
2025-09-050.200.17030.2283
2025-09-120.200.17070.2281
2025-09-190.2050.17120.2279
2025-09-260.2050.17170.2278
2025-10-030.2050.17220.2276
2025-10-100.2050.17270.2274
2025-10-170.250.17470.2274
2025-10-240.2550.17680.2275
2025-10-310.2550.17930.2276
2025-11-070.270.18230.2278
2025-11-140.270.18620.2281
2025-11-210.270.190.2283
2025-11-280.270.19380.2286
2025-12-050.2950.19820.2289
2025-12-120.2950.20250.2293
2025-12-190.320.20770.2298
2025-12-260.320.21280.2303
2026-01-020.350.2190.2312
2026-01-090.350.2250.2321
2026-01-160.350.23120.2324
2026-01-230.3350.23720.2325
2026-01-300.32250.24280.2325
2026-02-060.3350.24880.2324
2026-02-130.3350.25460.2323
2026-02-200.3350.26060.2323
2026-02-270.260.26410.2319
2026-03-060.200.26560.231
2026-03-130.200.26710.2306
2026-03-200.200.26790.2301
2026-03-270.260.27080.23
2026-04-030.260.27280.2299
2026-04-100.1950.27260.2293
2026-04-170.1950.27220.2287
2026-04-240.1950.27190.228
2026-05-010.190.27140.2274
2026-05-080.1950.27110.2267
2026-05-150.200.26940.2262
2026-05-220.1950.26740.2257
2026-05-290.1950.26540.2251
2026-06-050.190.26280.2245
2026-06-120.190.26010.224
2026-06-190.1650.25660.2231
2026-06-260.170.25320.2223
2026-07-030.170.24910.2215
2026-07-100.170.24490.2207
2026-07-170.170.23990.22
2026-07-240.170.23490.2194
2026-07-310.170.22890.2187
2026-08-070.170.22290.2179
2026-08-140.170.21690.2173
2026-08-210.170.21140.2166
2026-08-280.170.20630.216
2026-09-040.170.20080.2154
2026-09-110.170.19530.2149
4-week return 0.0%
13-week return -10.5%
26-week return -15.0%
52-week return -15.0%
From 52-week high -51.4%
26-week volatility 59.0%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 5.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 3 decliningPrimary swing size · Leading23%
A/B/C reset may be completingPrimary swing size16%
A/B/C reset may be completingStrategic swing size61%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Possible bearish Wave 3 declining

23% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 0.17 Fails above 0.20 Count stability High · 100/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 0.26; Wave 2 0.20.
PassWave 3 exceeds Wave 1Wave 1 0.19; Wave 3 0.17.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 14% of Wave 1.
GuidelineWave 3 extension is plausibleWave 3 is 0.43× Wave 1.
Strategic degreeA/B/C reset may be completing

Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible bearish Wave 3 declining

Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible bearish Wave 3 declining

Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing -15.0%

17 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.155

Pivot from 2025-08-15

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.20

Pivot from 2026-05-15

30-week trend 0.1953

Price is -13.0% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.2149

Price is -20.9% from Fair Value

52-week range position 3%

0.165 low · 0.35 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

5 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 2 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

71% directional agreement

The other readings support this direction. 5 readings support the selected direction; 2 lean against it.

Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

13.0% below trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Troughing
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are improving together.

Rising Stack
Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-26.6
Market activity

Participation is weak

-37.4
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-0.3
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-49.3
Balance of readings Defensive

2 constructive, 5 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is weak. This supports the downward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark. This supports the downward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is negative. This supports the downward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is weak. This supports the downward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is near a low and starting to turn. Look for price to confirm an upswing.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 18/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseTroughing

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementRising Stack

75/100 constructive · 25/100 risk

Estimated next low4 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high2 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 8w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score18/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough11w
Possible next low1–9w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough11w
Possible next low0–9w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 50w
Current phaseTroughing
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough4w
Possible next low36–56w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 77w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough56w
Possible next low6–36w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 51.4% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 51.4% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 25/100.

Downside risk check

Contained

4/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover0/15
Multi-cycle risk4/15
Count instability0/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.165
52-week high0.35
Annualised volatility59.0%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range0.0%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-51.4%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume104%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

48% constructive

11 of 23 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

9% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^AXJOMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks49853%0.5%-0.3%-9.3% to 10.1%
13 weeks19958%1.8%-0.1%-13.1% to 14.3%
26 weeks11558%2.6%-0.6%-19.0% to 17.2%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +0.0% across 115 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

116 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
0.0%
13w
-2.3%
26w
7.0%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 115 33% 0.0% -29.3% to 66.7%
13 weeks 106 43% -2.3% -27.6% to 74.2%
26 weeks 97 58% 7.0% -22.5% to 125.8%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-11 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 5.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2024-07-12 Confirmed High 0.26 15.6% 1 weeks
2024-10-11 Confirmed Low 0.185 -28.8% 13 weeks
2024-12-13 Confirmed High 0.20 8.1% 9 weeks
2025-05-02 Confirmed Low 0.155 -22.5% 20 weeks
2025-06-13 Confirmed High 0.17 9.7% 6 weeks
2025-08-15 Confirmed Low 0.155 -8.8% 9 weeks
2026-01-16 Confirmed High 0.35 125.8% 22 weeks
2026-03-20 Confirmed Low 0.20 -42.9% 9 weeks
2026-04-03 Confirmed High 0.26 30.0% 2 weeks
2026-05-01 Confirmed Low 0.19 -26.9% 4 weeks
2026-05-15 Confirmed High 0.20 5.3% 2 weeks
2026-09-11 Forming Low 0.17 -15.0% 17 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context