HKG · Real Estate · Weekly analysis

1321 Elliott Wave report

China New City Group Limited

Latest close HKD 0.60 Week ending 4 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

The wave count points to a decline

The selected pattern describes a move downward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

88/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Triggered Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countPossible bearish Wave 3 declining

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings support this direction

5 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 2 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

Main uncertaintyModerate count stability

The leading count changed 3 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in HKD · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-09-150.830.9630.9736
2023-09-220.820.95970.9725
2023-09-290.820.95630.9714
2023-10-060.800.94930.9702
2023-10-130.710.9410.9684
2023-10-200.750.93270.9669
2023-10-270.740.92470.9653
2023-11-030.700.9150.9633
2023-11-100.790.9070.9618
2023-11-170.720.89670.9601
2023-11-240.680.88530.9581
2023-12-010.760.87670.9568
2023-12-080.850.87330.9562
2023-12-150.760.86830.9552
2023-12-220.680.86230.9533
2023-12-290.730.8560.9518
2024-01-050.690.8450.9499
2024-01-120.700.8350.9483
2024-01-190.670.8230.9467
2024-01-260.790.8160.9458
2024-02-020.760.80730.9446
2024-02-090.740.79830.9433
2024-02-160.780.7910.9424
2024-02-230.800.7860.9413
2024-03-010.790.77870.9401
2024-03-080.760.7710.9386
2024-03-150.710.7620.9367
2024-03-220.760.7550.9355
2024-03-290.760.7520.9344
2024-04-050.780.75430.9336
2024-04-120.790.7530.9326
2024-04-190.730.750.9312
2024-04-260.690.74570.9294
2024-05-030.690.7420.9276
2024-05-100.670.74070.9261
2024-05-170.790.7420.9252
2024-05-240.790.74370.9242
2024-05-310.800.7470.9233
2024-06-070.830.74830.9224
2024-06-140.830.7520.9214
2024-06-210.830.7570.9204
2024-06-280.830.75930.9196
2024-07-050.820.75830.9188
2024-07-120.820.76030.9183
2024-07-190.810.76470.9183
2024-07-260.800.7670.9182
2024-08-020.790.77030.9182
2024-08-090.770.77270.9174
2024-08-160.800.7770.9169
2024-08-230.800.77730.9166
2024-08-300.790.77830.9163
2024-09-060.790.780.9161
2024-09-130.780.780.9157
2024-09-200.780.77930.9154
2024-09-270.780.7790.9153
2024-10-040.840.78170.9153
2024-10-110.800.78470.915
2024-10-180.840.78730.915
2024-10-250.860.79070.9151
2024-11-010.850.7930.9148
2024-11-080.850.7950.9144
2024-11-150.720.79470.913
2024-11-220.780.79770.9121
2024-11-290.750.79970.9111
2024-12-060.800.8040.9102
2024-12-130.700.8010.9081
2024-12-200.720.79870.9061
2024-12-270.740.79670.9043
2025-01-030.790.79530.9033
2025-01-100.710.79130.9011
2025-01-170.800.79030.8996
2025-01-240.800.78930.8983
2025-01-310.800.78870.8967
2025-02-070.790.78770.8947
2025-02-140.700.7840.8921
2025-02-210.680.780.8894
2025-02-280.700.7770.8868
2025-03-070.650.7730.8839
2025-03-140.670.76870.8815
2025-03-210.630.7630.8784
2025-03-280.670.7590.8753
2025-04-040.660.75470.8719
2025-04-110.660.75070.8694
2025-04-180.710.74830.8669
2025-04-250.720.74630.8649
2025-05-020.800.7450.8632
2025-05-090.790.74470.8615
2025-05-160.800.74330.8596
2025-05-230.800.74130.8581
2025-05-300.800.73970.8564
2025-06-060.650.7330.8538
2025-06-130.650.73070.8513
2025-06-200.600.72470.8482
2025-06-270.600.71970.8451
2025-07-040.590.71270.8422
2025-07-110.650.7110.8398
2025-07-180.640.70830.8374
2025-07-250.640.7050.8347
2025-08-011.400.72530.8376
2025-08-081.060.7370.8377
2025-08-150.970.74270.8372
2025-08-220.850.74430.8369
2025-08-290.720.74170.8358
2025-09-050.650.7370.8337
2025-09-120.710.73730.8319
2025-09-190.820.7420.8304
2025-09-260.910.7490.8295
2025-10-030.900.75730.8299
2025-10-100.810.7620.8299
2025-10-170.800.76770.829
2025-10-240.800.7720.8284
2025-10-310.780.7760.8276
2025-11-070.670.77630.8256
2025-11-140.720.77670.8241
2025-11-210.750.77770.8227
2025-11-280.800.77770.8217
2025-12-050.700.77470.8197
2025-12-120.700.77130.8174
2025-12-190.680.76730.8149
2025-12-260.610.7610.812
2026-01-020.600.75930.809
2026-01-090.590.75730.806
2026-01-160.570.75630.8032
2026-01-230.560.7550.8002
2026-01-300.560.7540.7971
2026-02-060.550.75070.7945
2026-02-130.650.7510.7922
2026-02-200.570.74870.7899
2026-02-270.700.72530.7885
2026-03-060.610.71030.786
2026-03-130.550.69630.7833
2026-03-200.530.68570.7803
2026-03-270.480.67770.7771
2026-04-030.470.67170.7738
2026-04-100.730.67230.7719
2026-04-170.800.67170.7704
2026-04-240.900.67130.7696
2026-05-010.760.66670.7679
2026-05-080.740.66430.7666
2026-05-150.800.66430.7659
2026-05-220.800.66430.7655
2026-05-290.900.66830.7654
2026-06-050.750.6710.7637
2026-06-120.690.670.7617
2026-06-190.690.6680.7595
2026-06-260.720.66530.7577
2026-07-030.650.66370.7553
2026-07-100.650.6620.753
2026-07-170.750.66430.7514
2026-07-240.750.6690.7501
2026-07-310.800.67570.7488
2026-08-070.790.68230.7475
2026-08-140.800.690.7463
2026-08-210.680.6940.7445
2026-08-280.620.6960.743
2026-09-040.600.69770.7423
4-week return -24.1%
13-week return -20.0%
26-week return -1.6%
52-week return -7.7%
From 52-week high -47.4%
26-week volatility 100.2%
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 15.6% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 3 decliningPrimary swing size · Leading39%
A/B/C reset may be completingPrimary swing size22%
Possible bearish Wave 3 decliningTactical swing size39%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Possible bearish Wave 3 declining

39% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 0.60 Fails above 0.80 Count stability Moderate · 52/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 0.90; Wave 2 0.80.
PassWave 3 exceeds Wave 1Wave 1 0.65; Wave 3 0.60.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 60% of Wave 1.
GuidelineWave 3 extension is plausibleWave 3 is 0.80× Wave 1.
Strategic degreePossible Wave 2 trough

Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible bearish Wave 3 declining

Primary degree uses a 15.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible bearish Wave 3 declining

Tactical degree uses a 10.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing -25.0%

3 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.47

Pivot from 2026-04-03

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.80

Pivot from 2026-08-14

30-week trend 0.6977

Price is -14.0% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.7423

Price is -19.2% from Fair Value

52-week range position 27%

0.405 low · 1.14 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

5 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 2 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

71% directional agreement

The other readings support this direction. 5 readings support the selected direction; 2 lean against it.

Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

14.0% below trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is not rising.

Falling
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are weakening together.

Falling Stack
Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-14.4
Market activity

Participation is supportive

+4.0
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-0.6
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+9.1
Balance of readings Defensive

2 constructive, 5 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark. This supports the downward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is positive. This challenges the downward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is weak. This supports the downward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Cycle pressure is falling. A recovery in price needs support from the other readings.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 16/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseFalling

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementFalling Stack

25/100 constructive · 75/100 risk

Estimated next low7 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high12 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 11w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score11/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough8w
Possible next low0–6w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough8w
Possible next low4–10w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 50w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score16/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough21w
Possible next low18–40w
Typical / observed cycle80w / 98w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score6/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough20w
Possible next low60–96w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 57.1% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 47.4% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Cycle rollover

    Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 75/100.

  • Count instability

    The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability.

Downside risk check

Contained

27/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover11/15
Multi-cycle risk11/15
Count instability5/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.405
52-week high1.14
Annualised volatility100.2%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range9.7%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-57.1%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume17%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

42% constructive

10 of 24 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

33% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^HSIMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks18746%-0.9%-0.6%-12.0% to 13.9%
13 weeks10543%-2.6%-2.0%-15.0% to 27.1%
26 weeks8449%-2.0%-1.1%-27.4% to 39.1%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +3.0% across 81 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

81 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
3.0%
13w
0.0%
26w
1.7%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 81 59% 3.0% -19.0% to 137.3%
13 weeks 80 49% 0.0% -30.4% to 60.7%
26 weeks 77 53% 1.7% -35.4% to 43.6%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-09-04 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 15.6% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2025-09-26 Confirmed High 0.91 40.0% 3 weeks
2025-11-07 Confirmed Low 0.67 -26.4% 6 weeks
2025-11-28 Confirmed High 0.80 19.4% 3 weeks
2026-02-06 Confirmed Low 0.55 -31.3% 10 weeks
2026-02-27 Confirmed High 0.70 27.3% 3 weeks
2026-04-03 Confirmed Low 0.47 -32.9% 5 weeks
2026-04-24 Confirmed High 0.90 91.5% 3 weeks
2026-05-08 Confirmed Low 0.74 -17.8% 2 weeks
2026-05-29 Confirmed High 0.90 21.6% 3 weeks
2026-07-10 Confirmed Low 0.65 -27.8% 6 weeks
2026-08-14 Confirmed High 0.80 23.1% 5 weeks
2026-09-04 Forming Low 0.60 -25.0% 3 weeks

Chart guide

Evidence context