FTSE/JSE Top 40
FTSE/JSE Top 40 closed at 7,217.40 on 2 Sep 2026. The current Trend state is positive, with structural momentum at 0.30%.
Price, Activity, Trend and Fair Value
The full completed-session structure is shown first. Regime shading makes expansion, transition and pressure visible without relying on a single signal.
What the evidence says now
Constructive
Participation is supportive; monitor extension risk. Activity is aligned upward, with the latest close 2.7% from Trend and 1.8% from Fair Value.
Exposure supported
Structure supports participation while risk remains controlled.
Trend loss
Repeated closes below Trend would weaken the current read.
Performance across investment horizons
Completed-session returns reveal whether leadership is broad across horizons or driven by a short-lived move.
Drawdown and variability
816 completed observations support this read.
-11.82%
-20.72%
30.48%
Levels that change the structural read
Momentum, Relative Strength and Market Dynamics
Three independent dimensions show whether direction, leadership and market behaviour agree. The chart normalises each path for visual comparison; the readout preserves the underlying values.
Drawdown and realised variability
Drawdown measures distance from the prior high; variability shows how difficult the path has become to hold.
Weekly architecture
The slower view tests whether the completed-session read is supported by a more durable market structure.
What followed similar architecture
Point-in-time matches use only information available at each completed observation. Results describe this index's history; they are not a forecast.
| Forward window | Independent samples | Median move | Positive outcomes | Best | Worst | Evidence read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next week | 71 | 0.79% | 58% | 6.10% | -7.59% | Usable descriptive sample |
| Next month | 68 | 1.63% | 63% | 13.07% | -17.85% | Usable descriptive sample |
| Next quarter | 68 | 8.66% | 69% | 21.42% | -12.95% | Usable descriptive sample |
Position within Africa
FTSE/JSE Top 40 ranks 1 of 1 on current architecture. Correlation with S&P 500 is 0.57.
No other active indexes share this region.
What this dossier measures
The dossier uses completed daily and weekly index observations to describe price architecture, Activity alignment, Trend, Fair Value, relative leadership, momentum, risk and historical state behaviour. It uses only completed observations, does not predict the next move and does not issue an investment instruction. Exchange holidays and legitimate one-session publication lags are retained; feeds more than two weeks behind the current universe are excluded until they recover.