LNG: Not rated
Published 16 Sep 2026, 16:40 BST. This is the frozen version, not the current recommendation.
Why this assessment was issued
Stored financial statements changed; the revised figures need checking. The model version changed. Current data checks do not support an active rating. The published model version has been replaced. Record the new calculation basis even if the rating is unchanged.
A target is not published until the required checks pass. Conflicting dated amounts need reconciliation before a target can be published: net ppe.
Supporting evidence
More cash remains for each dollar of profit
Cash after capital spending / profit: 1.0× for LNG, against 0.7× across 12 comparable peers.
Borrowing is lower relative to earnings
Net debt / EBITDA: 3.2× for LNG, against 3.8× across 12 comparable peers.
Opposing evidence
Capital spending changes the cash picture
Operating cash covers 2.10 times profit, but cash after capital spending covers 0.96 times. Cash generation is stronger before the investment bill is paid.
Year-to-date profit is lower
Across 2 completed quarters since 2025-12-31, net income was -434.0m versus 1,979.0m in the matching prior-year periods (USD). Check whether the latest quarter changes that direction.
Original assumptions and checks
| tax | 17.806451612903228 |
|---|---|
| price | 278.34 |
| years | 1.212867898699521 |
| claims | 5299000000.0 |
| growth | 15 |
| margin | 29.285974831296734 |
| profit | 2917000000.0 |
| shares | 206534158.0 |
| cash_ok | True |
| debt_ok | True |
| growths | [16.562584849307637, 20.326841280501462, 24.541501228965767, 25.959618371422224] |
| revenue | 21932000000.0 |
| discount | 6.489939763497612 |
| downside | 72.01127983932643 |
| interest | 1024000000.0 |
| leverage | 2.817998182597294 |
| net_debt | 25037000000.0 |
| terminal | 2 |
| free_cash | 2791000000.0 |
| ppe_ratio | 1.8087725697610797 |
| buy_hurdle | 16.080267292487733 |
| extra_debt | 359222851.474216 |
| volatility | 32.160534584975466 |
| basis_notes | [] |
| capex_ratio | 0.152608061280321 |
| cash_profit | 2917000000.0 |
| share_ratio | Not available |
| annual_years | 5 |
| capital_cost | {'tax': 17.806451612903228, 'beta': 0.12254507635036824, 'debt': 26556000000.0, 'beta_end': '2026-09-11', 'discount': 6.489939763497612, 'debt_cost': 6.46, 'risk_free': 4.96, 'beta_start': '2023-09-22', 'beta_weeks': 156, 'source_url': 'https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates', 'debt_weight': 31.598216690317223, 'equity_cost': 7.035150254501227, 'equity_value': 57486717537.71999, 'adjusted_beta': 0.4150300509002455, 'credit_spread': 1.5, 'equity_premium': 5.0, 'risk_free_date': '2026-09-11', 'observed_interest': 3.8560024100015062} |
| depreciation | 6.5703082254240375 |
| normal_capex | 12.620839295777278 |
| tax_measured | True |
| current_capex | 15.260806128032101 |
| working_ratio | 0.0 |
| financial_date | 2026-06-30 |
| interest_cover | 7.3937013556061055 |
| operating_cash | 6138000000.0 |
| terminal_share | 88.52399704560871 |
| reporting_basis | quarterly |
| uncapped_growth | 22.434171254733613 |
| projected_margin | 34.5210203727004 |
| capital_inventory | {'date': '2026-06-30', 'values': {'total_current_assets': 4112000000.0, 'total_current_liabilities': 4723000000.0}, 'version': 'capital-scope-3', 'currency': 'USD', 'evidence': {'total_current_assets': [{'end': '2026-06-30', 'unit': 'USD', 'value': 4112000000.0, 'financial_period_id': 5863401}], 'total_current_liabilities': [{'end': '2026-06-30', 'unit': 'USD', 'value': 4723000000.0, 'financial_period_id': 5863401}]}, 'conflicts': []} |
| cash_profit_basis | Reported net profit |
| historical_margin | 34.5210203727004 |
| year5_value_share | 88.52399704560871 |
| depreciation_ratio | 0.06570308225424037 |
| net_debt_at_target | 25396222851.474216 |
| non_operating_assets | 0 |
| non_operating_profit_material | False |
Recent price · Passed. Weekly close dated 2026-09-11.
Current financials · Passed. Statements through 2026-06-30; factor prices dated 2026-09-11.
Price risk · Passed. Risk uses the latest 52 weekly price changes.
Operating history · Passed. 5 annual results, retaining operating losses and unusually strong years.
Quarterly operating results · Passed. Four quarters through 2026-06-30.
Cash-flow and ownership inputs · Passed. Capital spending, depreciation estimate, operating capital, debt, cash and other ownership claims are recorded.
Depreciation basis · Passed. Four matching quarters of operating income and reported depreciation are required. An unrelated EBITDA-minus-EBIT difference is not treated as depreciation.
Matching currency · Passed. USD statements and share price.
Operating totals · Passed. Quarterly sales and operating profit agree with the trailing snapshot within 5%.
Operating discount rate · Passed. The operating cash-flow discount rate needs a current USD Treasury rate, at least two years of matching market returns, and dated debt and share inputs. An equity return hurdle is not used as the company's funding cost.
Continuing growth and funding cost · Passed. The funding cost must exceed continuing growth in every valuation scenario.
Scenario consistency · Passed. The weaker, central and stronger assumptions must give an ordered range. When growth costs more capital than it earns, a tailored operating review is required before publishing a target.
Ownership source reconciliation · Review needed. Conflicting dated amounts need reconciliation before a target can be published: net ppe.
Policy sm-review-2-research · Model sm-assessment-14-operating-capital · Data 101dfb652fd3.