AIT: Hold
Published 17 Sep 2026, 18:53 BST. This is the frozen version, not the current recommendation.
Why this assessment was issued
Stored financial statements changed; the revised figures need checking. The model version changed. Required data is available again; reconsider the suspended assessment. The published model version has been replaced. Record the new calculation basis even if the rating is unchanged. Neither a positive nor a negative classification meets the stated requirements. Review price and return, downside balance.
Neither a positive nor a negative classification meets the stated requirements. Review price and return, downside balance.
Supporting evidence
Quarterly sales are growing
Revenue changed +10.4% from the same quarter last year, through 2026-06-30. The previous quarter’s year-on-year change was +7.3%.
Borrowing is lower relative to earnings
Net debt / EBITDA: 0.6× for AIT, against 2.6× across 12 comparable peers.
Opposing evidence
Price has outpaced earnings
Over 1 year (2025-09-12 to 2026-09-11), price changed +23.0% and trailing EPS changed +8.3%. A wider gap changes the earnings multiple; it does not establish fair value.
Less cash remains for each dollar of profit
Cash after capital spending / profit: 1.1× for AIT, against 1.3× across 9 comparable peers.
The original scenarios
| Scenario | Sales growth | Profit margin | Model value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weaker | 3.8% | 7.5% | $218.92 |
| Central | 8.8% | 8.3% | $292.71 |
| Stronger | 13.8% | 9.2% | $380.83 |
Method: Earnings and historical valuation. A sufficiently complete, positive earnings record allows the stock's own P/E history to be used. These scenarios are not probability intervals.
Original assumptions and checks
| eps | 10.96 |
|---|---|
| cash | 127130000.0 |
| debt | 483444000.0 |
| years | 1.1991786447638604 |
| growth | 8.771036121536357 |
| margin | 8.34610845138992 |
| profit | 414525000.0 |
| cash_ok | True |
| debt_ok | True |
| growths | [9.152331692970716, 8.389740550101997, 7.259830520531829, 10.447772162027547] |
| revenue | 4966686000.0 |
| downside | 32.38509063579931 |
| leverage | 0.5789807219831788 |
| multiple | 24.145575642245483 |
| free_cash | 460517000.0 |
| buy_hurdle | 15 |
| volatility | 25.139327563942803 |
| history_end | 2026-09-11 |
| reward_risk | 0.0 |
| annual_years | 5 |
| usable_weeks | 157 |
| history_start | 2023-09-15 |
| history_weeks | 157 |
| financial_date | 2026-06-30 |
| interest_cover | 31.60410675255953 |
| operating_cash | 484082000.0 |
| uncapped_growth | 8.771036121536357 |
| current_multiple | 29.541970802919703 |
| projected_margin | 8.34610845138992 |
| historical_margin | 8.34610845138992 |
Recent price · Passed. Weekly close dated 2026-09-11.
Suitable business model · Passed. Value operating cash flow or comparable earnings; deduct debt and other ownership claims where appropriate.
Four quarters · Passed. Four quarters ending 2026-06-30.
Current financials · Passed. Statements through 2026-06-30; factor prices dated 2026-09-11.
Annual record · Passed. 5 consecutive annual profit margins, including loss years.
Comparable earnings history · Passed. P/E is usable in 157 of 157 weeks. At least 52 usable weeks and 70% coverage are required; excluding too many loss or missing weeks would bias the target.
Earnings and price dates · Passed. Earnings-release EPS $10.96, for four quarters ending 2026-06-30.
Price risk · Passed. Risk uses the latest 52 weekly price changes.
Comparable sales growth · Passed. Growth uses the median of four quarterly year-on-year comparisons.
Positive statement earnings · Passed. Trailing statement profit is positive.
Earnings reconciliation · Passed. Release EPS is $10.96; statement-derived EPS is $11.30. The difference is within the 5% review threshold; this does not prove there are no unusual items.
Statement totals · Passed. The latest four quarters agree with the trailing snapshot within 5%.
Cash and borrowing · Passed. Cash generation, debt and interest-cover figures are available.
Target publication review · Passed. The model estimate is within SM's automatic publication range of one quarter to four times the current price. This is a review threshold, not evidence that the market price is correct.
Policy sm-review-2-research · Model sm-assessment-14-operating-capital · Data 9cea438d1c84.