SSD: Hold
Published 21 Sep 2026, 03:03 BST. This is the frozen version, not the current recommendation.
Why this assessment was issued
Stored financial statements changed; the revised figures need checking. The model version changed. Required data is available again; reconsider the suspended assessment. The published model version has been replaced. Record the new calculation basis even if the rating is unchanged. Neither a positive nor a negative classification meets the stated requirements. Review business evidence.
Neither a positive nor a negative classification meets the stated requirements. Review business evidence.
Supporting evidence
Year-to-date profit has improved
Across 2 completed quarters since 2025-12-31, net income was 215.3m versus 181.4m in the matching prior-year periods (USD). Check whether the latest quarter changes that direction.
More sales are becoming operating profit
The latest quarterly operating margin was 25.2%, +3.0 percentage points from a year earlier. Compare the sales and margin contributions below.
Opposing evidence
The starting valuation is below the price
The central assumptions give $123.36 per share, -28.0% against the weekly close. This is a scenario to test, not an analyst price target.
Borrowing is higher relative to earnings
Net debt / EBITDA: -0.0× for SSD, against -0.4× across 4 comparable peers.
The original scenarios
| Scenario | Sales growth | Profit margin | Model value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weaker | 1.3% | 14.1% | $158.34 |
| Central | 6.3% | 15.7% | $207.24 |
| Stronger | 11.3% | 17.3% | $265.14 |
Method: Earnings and historical valuation. A sufficiently complete, positive earnings record allows the stock's own P/E history to be used. These scenarios are not probability intervals.
Original assumptions and checks
| eps | 8.89 |
|---|---|
| cash | 450526000.0 |
| debt | 423761000.0 |
| years | 1.212867898699521 |
| growth | 6.267256618642614 |
| margin | 15.645415289991568 |
| profit | 378916000.0 |
| cash_ok | True |
| debt_ok | True |
| growths | [6.192593753246589, 4.235556955640285, 9.105484370795791, 6.341919484038638] |
| revenue | 2421898000.0 |
| downside | 7.530605277653146 |
| leverage | -0.04465812714510012 |
| multiple | 21.55976331360947 |
| free_cash | 468370000.0 |
| buy_hurdle | 15 |
| volatility | 28.93131082268584 |
| history_end | 2026-09-18 |
| reward_risk | 2.792818933214326 |
| annual_years | 5 |
| usable_weeks | 157 |
| history_start | 2023-09-22 |
| history_weeks | 157 |
| financial_date | 2026-06-30 |
| interest_cover | Not available |
| operating_cash | 574364000.0 |
| uncapped_growth | 6.267256618642614 |
| current_multiple | 19.260967379077613 |
| projected_margin | 15.714514550855515 |
| historical_margin | 15.78361381171946 |
Recent price · Passed. Weekly close dated 2026-09-18.
Suitable business model · Passed. Value operating cash flow or comparable earnings; deduct debt and other ownership claims where appropriate.
Four quarters · Passed. Four quarters ending 2026-06-30.
Current financials · Passed. Statements through 2026-06-30; factor prices dated 2026-09-11.
Annual record · Passed. 5 consecutive annual profit margins, including loss years.
Comparable earnings history · Passed. P/E is usable in 157 of 157 weeks. At least 52 usable weeks and 70% coverage are required; excluding too many loss or missing weeks would bias the target.
Earnings and price dates · Passed. Earnings-release EPS $8.89, for four quarters ending 2026-06-30.
Price risk · Passed. Risk uses the latest 52 weekly price changes.
Comparable sales growth · Passed. Growth uses the median of four quarterly year-on-year comparisons.
Positive statement earnings · Passed. Trailing statement profit is positive.
Earnings reconciliation · Passed. Release EPS is $8.89; statement-derived EPS is $9.25. The difference is within the 5% review threshold; this does not prove there are no unusual items.
Statement totals · Passed. The latest four quarters agree with the trailing snapshot within 5%.
Cash and borrowing · Passed. Cash generation, debt and interest-cover figures are available.
Target publication review · Passed. The model estimate is within SM's automatic publication range of one quarter to four times the current price. This is a review threshold, not evidence that the market price is correct.
Policy sm-review-2-research · Model sm-assessment-14-operating-capital · Data 19210e50e6d4.