GEO: Not rated
Published 21 Sep 2026, 22:04 BST. This is the frozen version, not the current recommendation.
Why this assessment was issued
Stored financial statements changed; the revised figures need checking. The model version changed. Current data checks do not support an active rating. The published model version has been replaced. Record the new calculation basis even if the rating is unchanged.
A target is not published until the required checks pass. Trailing sales and operating profit must agree with the selected financial period within 5%, with valid capital and ownership amounts.
Supporting evidence
Year-to-date profit has improved
Across 2 completed quarters since 2025-12-31, net income was 85.8m versus 48.7m in the matching prior-year periods (USD). Non-operating income is material to the latest year's profit. This increase does not establish recurring earnings growth.
Compare the stock with its market
Over one year, the stock changed +45.6% against +14.8% for US stocks (SPY). The gap is +30.9 percentage points. These are price returns, before dividends.
Opposing evidence
Working capital is growing faster than sales
Receivables changed +36.5%, against sales of +15.1%, from the same quarter last year. This can tie up cash. Acquisitions, payment timing and seasonality also need checking.
Less cash remains for each dollar of profit
Cash after capital spending / profit: 0.1× for GEO, against 1.1× across 8 comparable peers.
Original assumptions and checks
Recent price · Passed. Weekly close dated 2026-09-18.
Current financials · Passed. Statements through 2026-06-30; factor prices dated 2026-09-18.
Price risk · Passed. Risk uses the latest 52 weekly price changes.
Operating history · Passed. 5 annual results, retaining operating losses and unusually strong years.
Quarterly operating results · Passed. Four quarters through 2026-06-30.
Cash-flow and ownership inputs · Passed. Capital spending, depreciation estimate, operating capital, debt, cash and other ownership claims are recorded.
Depreciation basis · Passed. Four matching quarters of operating income and reported depreciation are required. An unrelated EBITDA-minus-EBIT difference is not treated as depreciation.
Matching currency · Passed. USD statements and share price.
Operating totals · Review needed. Trailing sales and operating profit must agree with the selected financial period within 5%, with valid capital and ownership amounts.
Ownership and debt amounts · Review needed. Debt, cash, preferred stock and minority interests cannot be negative. minority interest
Policy sm-review-2-research · Model sm-assessment-14-operating-capital · Data 6eb79c1e2eec.