DUK: Hold
Published 15 Sep 2026, 14:28 BST. This is the frozen version, not the current recommendation.
Why this assessment was issued
Stored financial statements changed; the revised figures need checking. The model version changed. The published model version has been replaced. Record the new calculation basis even if the rating is unchanged. Neither a positive nor a negative classification meets the stated requirements. Review price and return, downside balance, cash generation, borrowing, business evidence, earnings support.
Neither a positive nor a negative classification meets the stated requirements. Review price and return, downside balance, cash generation, borrowing, business evidence, earnings support.
Supporting evidence
Year-to-date profit has improved
Across 2 completed quarters since 2025-12-31, net income was 2,642.0m versus 2,363.0m in the matching prior-year periods (USD). Check whether the latest quarter changes that direction.
Borrowing is lower relative to earnings
Net debt / EBITDA: 5.3× for DUK, against 6.0× across 12 comparable peers.
Opposing evidence
Capital spending changes the cash picture
Operating cash covers 2.20 times profit, but cash after capital spending covers -1.59 times. Cash generation is stronger before the investment bill is paid.
The starting valuation is below the price
The central assumptions give $9.80 per share, -91.8% against the weekly close. This is a scenario to test, not an analyst price target.
The original scenarios
| Scenario | Sales growth | Profit margin | Model value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weaker | 4.1% | 13.7% | $103.85 |
| Central | 7.1% | 15.3% | $132.66 |
| Stronger | 10.1% | 16.8% | $165.92 |
Method: Earnings and historical valuation. A sufficiently complete, positive earnings record allows the stock's own P/E history to be used. These scenarios are not probability intervals.
Original assumptions and checks
| eps | 6.67 |
|---|---|
| cash | 673000000.0 |
| debt | 91238000000.0 |
| years | 1.1991786447638604 |
| growth | 7.084589718569701 |
| margin | 15.720406267789198 |
| profit | 5247000000.0 |
| cash_ok | False |
| debt_ok | False |
| growths | [6.315918567574186, 7.853260869565215, 11.261971148017945, 1.1188066062866264] |
| revenue | 33377000000.0 |
| downside | 13.03582802097707 |
| leverage | 5.335513137740073 |
| multiple | 18.884244372990352 |
| free_cash | -8362000000.0 |
| buy_hurdle | 15 |
| volatility | 16.694731023093908 |
| history_end | 2026-09-11 |
| reward_risk | 0.8503181930191626 |
| annual_years | 5 |
| usable_weeks | 157 |
| history_start | 2023-09-15 |
| history_weeks | 157 |
| financial_date | 2026-06-30 |
| interest_cover | 2.4455340577789557 |
| operating_cash | 11562000000.0 |
| uncapped_growth | 7.084589718569701 |
| current_multiple | 17.904047976011995 |
| projected_margin | 15.251806712697077 |
| historical_margin | 14.783207157604956 |
Recent price · Passed. Weekly close dated 2026-09-11.
Suitable business model · Passed. Capital spending and funding matter. Use operating cash flow with explicit reinvestment; this does not replace a regulated rate-base review.
Four quarters · Passed. Four quarters ending 2026-06-30.
Current financials · Passed. Statements through 2026-06-30; factor prices dated 2026-09-11.
Annual record · Passed. 5 consecutive annual profit margins, including loss years.
Comparable earnings history · Passed. P/E is usable in 157 of 157 weeks. At least 52 usable weeks and 70% coverage are required; excluding too many loss or missing weeks would bias the target.
Earnings and price dates · Passed. Earnings-release EPS $6.67, for four quarters ending 2026-06-30.
Price risk · Passed. Risk uses the latest 52 weekly price changes.
Comparable sales growth · Passed. Growth uses the median of four quarterly year-on-year comparisons.
Positive statement earnings · Passed. Trailing statement profit is positive.
Earnings reconciliation · Passed. Release EPS is $6.67; statement-derived EPS is $6.73. The difference is within the 5% review threshold; this does not prove there are no unusual items.
Statement totals · Passed. The latest four quarters agree with the trailing snapshot within 5%.
Cash and borrowing · Passed. Cash generation, debt and interest-cover figures are available.
Target publication review · Passed. The model estimate is within SM's automatic publication range of one quarter to four times the current price. This is a review threshold, not evidence that the market price is correct.
Policy sm-review-2-research · Model sm-assessment-12-rating-balance · Data 66b662ede1d9.