JBHT: Hold + Reduce
Published 15 Sep 2026, 17:22 BST. This is the frozen version, not the current recommendation.
Why this assessment was issued
A new earnings release is available. The available valuation method changed; check it at the next formal valuation review. Required data is available again; reconsider the suspended assessment. The central target is 19.8% below the price. The decline falls short of the 25% Sell requirement.
The central target is 19.8% below the price. The decline falls short of the 25% Sell requirement.
Supporting evidence
Year-to-date profit has improved
Across 2 completed quarters since 2025-12-31, net income was 322.6m versus 246.4m in the matching prior-year periods (USD). Check whether the latest quarter changes that direction.
More cash remains for each dollar of profit
Cash after capital spending / profit: 1.6× for JBHT, against 1.2× across 7 comparable peers.
Opposing evidence
Price has outpaced earnings
Over 1 year (2025-09-12 to 2026-09-11), price changed +96.1% and trailing EPS changed +28.4%. A wider gap changes the earnings multiple; it does not establish fair value.
The starting valuation is below the price
The central assumptions give $64.98 per share, -76.0% against the weekly close. This is a scenario to test, not an analyst price target.
The original scenarios
| Scenario | Sales growth | Profit margin | Model value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weaker | -2.9% | 4.9% | $157.48 |
| Central | 2.1% | 5.5% | $217.03 |
| Stronger | 7.1% | 6.1% | $289.41 |
Method: Earnings and historical valuation. A sufficiently complete, positive earnings record allows the stock's own P/E history to be used. These scenarios are not probability intervals.
Original assumptions and checks
| eps | 7.06 |
|---|---|
| cash | 4162000.0 |
| debt | 1145337000.0 |
| years | 1.2101300479123889 |
| growth | 2.0633262620512904 |
| margin | 5.310515214572355 |
| profit | 674505000.0 |
| cash_ok | True |
| debt_ok | True |
| growths | [-0.4978210145392792, -1.5803083447857635, 4.62447353864186, 19.367484455366668] |
| revenue | 12701310000.0 |
| downside | 41.77037192671082 |
| leverage | 0.6817205637161634 |
| multiple | 28.991007194244606 |
| free_cash | 1099722000.0 |
| buy_hurdle | 17.67023754033525 |
| volatility | 35.3404750806705 |
| history_end | 2026-09-11 |
| reward_risk | 0.0 |
| annual_years | 5 |
| usable_weeks | 157 |
| history_start | 2023-09-15 |
| history_weeks | 157 |
| financial_date | 2026-06-30 |
| interest_cover | 13.653384006515124 |
| operating_cash | 1595293000.0 |
| uncapped_growth | 2.0633262620512904 |
| current_multiple | 38.30736543909349 |
| projected_margin | 5.493550734971117 |
| historical_margin | 5.6765862553698785 |
Recent price · Passed. Weekly close dated 2026-09-11.
Suitable business model · Passed. Value operating cash flow or comparable earnings; deduct debt and other ownership claims where appropriate.
Four quarters · Passed. Four quarters ending 2026-06-30.
Current financials · Passed. Statements through 2026-06-30; factor prices dated 2026-09-11.
Annual record · Passed. 5 consecutive annual profit margins, including loss years.
Comparable earnings history · Passed. P/E is usable in 157 of 157 weeks. At least 52 usable weeks and 70% coverage are required; excluding too many loss or missing weeks would bias the target.
Earnings and price dates · Passed. Earnings-release EPS $7.06, for four quarters ending 2026-06-30.
Price risk · Passed. Risk uses the latest 52 weekly price changes.
Comparable sales growth · Passed. Growth uses the median of four quarterly year-on-year comparisons.
Positive statement earnings · Passed. Trailing statement profit is positive.
Earnings reconciliation · Passed. Release EPS is $7.06; statement-derived EPS is $7.18. The difference is within the 5% review threshold; this does not prove there are no unusual items.
Statement totals · Passed. The latest four quarters agree with the trailing snapshot within 5%.
Cash and borrowing · Passed. Cash generation, debt and interest-cover figures are available.
Target publication review · Passed. The model estimate is within SM's automatic publication range of one quarter to four times the current price. This is a review threshold, not evidence that the market price is correct.
Policy sm-review-2-research · Model sm-assessment-12-rating-balance · Data e6cae05fa578.