The Gap, Inc.
A target is not published until the required checks pass. Recorded investments are material to equity value but have no reviewed valuation or tax treatment in this operating model. Financial investments must also be excluded from capital needed to fund sales growth.
The assessment, supporting evidence and main risks.
A target is not published until the required checks pass. Recorded investments are material to equity value but have no reviewed valuation or tax treatment in this operating model. Financial investments must also be excluded from capital needed to fund sales growth.
Outstanding checks and valuation methods ↓Year-to-date profit has improved, but capital spending changes the cash picture.
Company observations use the financial and market dates shown in the evidence. They may be newer than the published assessment.
Across 2 completed quarters since 2026-01-31, net income was 840.0m versus 409.0m in the matching prior-year periods (USD). Check whether the latest quarter changes that direction.
Operating cash covers 1.23 times profit, but cash after capital spending covers 0.77 times. Cash generation is stronger before the investment bill is paid.
Across 2 completed quarters since 2026-01-31, net income was 840.0m versus 409.0m in the matching prior-year periods (USD). Check whether the latest quarter changes that direction.
Enterprise value / EBITDA is 5.1× for GAP, versus a peer median of 8.1×. Its operating margin is 11.0% versus 10.3%. Business mix and growth expectations can explain the difference.
Over one year, the stock changed -6.1% against +16.3% for US stocks (SPY). The gap is -22.3 percentage points. These are price returns, before dividends.
Enterprise value / EBITDA is 5.1× for GAP, versus a peer median of 8.1×. Its operating margin is 11.0% versus 10.3%. Business mix and growth expectations can explain the difference.
Check the supporting chartCash after capital spending / profit: 0.8× for GAP, against 0.9× across 12 comparable peers.
Check the supporting chartOperating cash covers 1.23 times profit, but cash after capital spending covers 0.77 times. Cash generation is stronger before the investment bill is paid.
Check the supporting chartThe trailing operating margin is 11.0%, versus a 4.9% median across 5 annual results. Check whether the latest improvement is repeatable before extending it into a valuation.
Check the supporting chartOver one year, the stock changed -6.1% against +16.3% for US stocks (SPY). The gap is -22.3 percentage points. These are price returns, before dividends.
Check the supporting chartThe latest quarterly operating margin was 18.5%, +10.7 percentage points from a year earlier. Compare the sales and margin contributions below.
Check the supporting chartAcross 2 completed quarters since 2026-01-31, net income was 840.0m versus 409.0m in the matching prior-year periods (USD). Check whether the latest quarter changes that direction.
Check the supporting chartRevenue changed -2.0% from the same quarter last year, through 2026-07-31. The previous quarter’s year-on-year change was +1.0%.
Check the supporting chartNet income was 501.0m, compared with 216.0m in the same quarter last year. Amounts are in USD.
Check the supporting chartOver the latest four quarters, operating cash was 1.23 times net income. Review receivables, inventory and non-cash charges before judging the gap.
Check the supporting chartOver 1 year (2025-09-12 to 2026-09-11), price changed -6.1% and trailing EPS changed -15.8%. A wider gap changes the earnings multiple; it does not establish fair value.
Check the supporting chartDividends and buybacks totalled 853.0m versus 957.0m of cash after capital spending over four quarters. Existing cash or borrowing can fund a difference.
Check the supporting chartThe estimate for the period ending 2027-01-31 changed +24.1% over 30 days. Coverage is 6 analysts.
Check the supporting chartThe central assumptions give $31.06 per share, +44.4% against the weekly close. This is a scenario to test, not an analyst price target.
Check the supporting chartOf the latest 4 comparable quarters, 2 beat the estimate and 2 missed it. Check how price responded; a beat alone is not a reason to buy.
Check the supporting chartWeighted diluted shares changed +0.0%. Compare this with buyback spending; splits and acquisitions can also change the count.
Check the supporting chartDebt less cash was 3,617.0m at 2026-07-31. Operating profit covered interest 18.1 times.
Check the supporting chartValuation comments use the starting assumptions. Related findings can reflect the same underlying change; they are not separate votes or a probability of success.
SM Virtual Analyst is an automated review of stored company results and market data. The views below describe the available evidence and identify what to check next.
Revenue, profit, cash generation and the operating measures behind them.
Follow the operating evidence, compare results with recorded forecasts, and check what funds growth.
Sales, profitability and cash after investment, compared with the financial history.
The Gap, Inc. is a prominent global apparel retailer founded in 1969, known for its diverse portfolio of iconic brands including Gap, Banana Republic, Old Navy, and Athleta. Headquartered in San Francisco, the company services over 40 countries and prioritizes quality, value, and style for a broad customer demographic. As it navigates the dynamic retail landscape, Gap is committed to enhancing its digital transformation and sustainability efforts, aiming to bolster its e-commerce presence while pursuing innovative product offerings and strategic growth initiatives to sustain its competitive advantage.
Capital spending changes the cash picture. Operating cash covers 1.23 times profit, but cash after capital spending covers 0.77 times. Cash generation is stronger before the investment bill is paid.
The same twelve-month reporting period. Cash after capital spending is before dividends, buybacks and debt repayments.
Latest reported margin 11.0% · Annual-history median 4.9%
Compare annual results with the latest trailing period. The periods may overlap. The median describes the available history; it is not an assumed future margin.
The latest reporting periods, earnings quality and the longer financial record.
Start with the latest quarters, then check whether the longer record supports the same view.
Compare completed quarters with the same periods a year earlier. Annual year-end: 2026-01-31.
Reported revenue in USD. Growth can include acquisitions, exchange-rate changes and price changes.
Operating profit shows the business before financing and tax. Net income can also reflect asset sales and other one-off items.
Latest quarter against the same quarter last year. The sales effect holds the old margin fixed; the remaining change comes from the margin. These two amounts add up to the change in operating profit.
Cash can move sharply between quarters. Check the four-quarter comparison and working-capital changes before drawing a conclusion.
Latest four consecutive quarters. Payouts above cash generation need another source of funding, such as existing cash or borrowing.
Same quarter one year earlier. Receivables and inventory are balances at the reporting date; sales cover the quarter. Faster growth can tie up cash, but acquisitions and payment timing can also explain a change.
Year-to-date comparisons require every completed quarter since the annual year-end and a matching prior-year period. Missing periods are not treated as zero. Figures may include subsequent restatements.
Annual revenue changed +1.9% between the latest two reported years.
See the figures ↓Operating profit was 7.3% of revenue, a change of -0.1 percentage points.
See the figures ↓Operating cash flow was 1.58 times net income. Working capital and non-cash charges can explain the difference.
See the figures ↓Weighted diluted shares changed +0.0%. Compare this with buyback spending; splits and acquisitions can also change the count.
See the figures ↓Reported financial years. Amounts in USD.
The proportion of sales left as operating profit and cash after capital spending.
Cash after capital spending still has to cover debt repayments and other commitments.
Cash spent, shown as positive amounts. Compare buybacks with changes in the diluted share count.
Weighted diluted shares from the annual statements. Share splits, acquisitions and employee awards can also change the total.
Inventory and receivables as a percentage of annual sales. Increasing amounts can tie up cash; business seasonality also matters.
| Financial year | Revenue | Operating profit | Net income | Operating cash | Cash after capital spending | Diluted shares | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-02-02 ↗ | 16580000000.0 | 1362000000.0 | 1003000000.0 | 1381000000.0 | 676000000.0 | 388000000.0 | 2022-03-15 |
| 2020-02-01 ↗ | 16383000000.0 | 574000000.0 | 351000000.0 | 1411000000.0 | 709000000.0 | 378000000.0 | 2023-03-14 |
| 2021-01-30 ↗ | 13800000000.0 | -862000000.0 | -665000000.0 | 237000000.0 | -155000000.0 | 374000000.0 | 2024-03-19 |
| 2022-01-29 ↗ | 16670000000.0 | 810000000.0 | 256000000.0 | 809000000.0 | 115000000.0 | 383000000.0 | 2025-03-18 |
| 2023-01-28 ↗ | 15616000000.0 | -69000000.0 | -202000000.0 | 607000000.0 | -78000000.0 | 367000000.0 | 2026-03-17 |
| 2024-02-03 ↗ | 14889000000.0 | 560000000.0 | 502000000.0 | 1532000000.0 | 1112000000.0 | 376000000.0 | 2026-03-17 |
| 2025-02-01 ↗ | 15086000000.0 | 1112000000.0 | 844000000.0 | 1486000000.0 | 1039000000.0 | 384000000.0 | 2026-03-17 |
| 2026-01-31 ↗ | 15366000000.0 | 1115000000.0 | 816000000.0 | 1293000000.0 | 823000000.0 | 384000000.0 | 2026-03-17 |
Amounts use each statement’s reported currency. Historical figures can include later restatements. Weighted diluted shares are an annual earnings measure, not the current share count used for valuation.
Separate the operating result, financing, tax and share count. Compare the same quarter a year apart.
Its contribution was $384.00m. The bridge reconciles the two quarters; it does not by itself establish whether the change will repeat.
See the figures ↓At the old share count, current profit would produce EPS of $1.32. The changed share count contributes $+0.06 per share. This does not attribute all changes in shares to buybacks.
See the figures ↓The latest quarter reported $501.00m net income and $337.00m operating cash. The difference includes non-cash expenses and working capital; one quarter can be seasonal.
See the figures ↓USD. Components add up to the total change. Non-operating items can include interest, investment income and other gains or charges.
Reported diluted EPS is checked against profit divided by weighted diluted shares. Split periods are excluded. The share-count effect is measured after the profit change.
USD. Cash timing can differ from profit recognition. Use several quarters to check whether a difference persists.
No reviewed schedule of unusual profit items is recorded. Reported profit is not assumed to be recurring profit.
Growth from pricing, volume, acquisitions and currency is identified only when the company provides a matching breakdown. A financial bridge explains the arithmetic, not the business cause. Gains are positive and charges negative in the unusual-item schedule.
Compare the cash generated by the business with investment, acquisitions, dividends and buybacks.
Cash after capital spending is before acquisitions, dividends and buybacks. A full remaining-cash figure is shown only when all those amounts are matched; missing payments are never zero. A shortfall may be met by cash balances, borrowing or asset sales. These figures do not establish the funding source or the return on new investment.
These cash measures show funding needs. They do not calculate the return on new investment. That requires comparable invested capital, after-tax operating profit and a supported required return. Acquisitions, disposals and accounting changes need separate treatment. Check the return-on-capital comparison in Peers & sector where those inputs are available.
Performance, earnings and valuation compared with the market and other companies.
Separate the company’s move from the wider market. Then examine the change in earnings and the price paid for them.
Both series start at 100 on the same date. Completed weekly prices; dividends are excluded. A sector fund represents its own holdings and weighting, which differ from the equally weighted sector statistics above.
At the old earnings multiple, the latest trailing EPS would imply $19.28. The actual close was $21.51.
2025-09-12 to 2026-09-11. The earnings contribution holds the starting P/E fixed; the remaining change comes from the P/E. This is an accounting comparison, not a fair-value estimate or proof of why investors traded.
-26.2% from the highest weekly close; 13.2% above the lowest.
Position in the range is useful context. It does not establish whether the business is cheap or expensive.
Test what the business could be worth ↓Compare reported earnings, the market’s response and changes in expectations.
Weekly prices are matched only after a recorded results date. A reporting-week move includes other news. EPS from earnings releases may differ from statutory diluted EPS. Historical revisions can change this comparison; it is not a trading backtest.
2 beats and 2 misses across the last 4 comparable quarters. Earnings-release figures may use an adjusted basis and differ from the financial statements.
From the weekly close before the announcement to the first weekly close after it, and to approximately four weeks later. These are weekly-window returns, not a one-day reaction. Other news also affects price.
P/E is available for 157 of 157 weekly observations. There are no missing earnings observations in this displayed period. Select Trailing EPS to inspect the earnings behind the ratio.
P/E at 2026-09-11: 10.9× · Median across positive-earnings weeks: 11.2×. Loss-making weeks are excluded from this median.
Uses earnings-release EPS, which can differ from the statement EPS used in peer factors. A low multiple can reflect weaker expected earnings.
Price return excludes dividends. Earnings growth and multiple changes require positive EPS at both ends of the comparison.
Weekly prices are matched only after a recorded results date. A reporting-week move includes other news. EPS from earnings releases may differ from statutory diluted EPS. Historical revisions can change this comparison; it is not a trading backtest.
Compare the price of the business with what it earns. Then check whether the wider sector is helping.
Enterprise value / EBITDA is 5.1× for GAP, versus a peer median of 8.1×. Its operating margin is 11.0% versus 10.3%. Business mix and growth expectations can explain the difference.
GAP is the larger teal dot. Each other dot is a named peer. Move right for greater profitability; move up for a higher valuation multiple.
GAP is shown in teal. The comparison uses 12 selected peers out of 25 other covered listings in Apparel Retail.
Active US common listings in the same industry; up to 12 peers nearest in market value. Identified preferred shares, warrants, rights and units are excluded. Matching company names and labelled share classes count once, using the listing with the largest stored market value; the target's other identified classes are excluded. This metadata screen is not a complete issuer-identity check. Medians require at least three companies per measure. All use the same published week and factor universe. Financial periods can differ and are shown below. This is a comparison of current constituents, not a backtest.
These figures cover other active US listings in the same sector and publication week. Sector membership is broader than the selected industry peers.
Percentage measures from the same published week. Profitability, growth and price performance describe different things; they are not added together.
Operating marginGAP 11.0% · Sector median 6.2%394 other listings with this measure
Adjusted-price change over one yearGAP -4.1% · Sector median -9.6%404 other listings with this measure
Comparisons use stored statement-based factors. Earnings-release EPS can use a different basis from these financial statements. Missing measures and unprofitable earnings multiples are omitted. Financial periods differ across issuers; matching publication weeks does not make their businesses identical.
Compare the trade-offs across closely sized businesses in the same industry. This list is not an investment ranking.
The trade-off is less favourable ev / ebitda.
URBN financial period 2026-07-31. Published prices 2026-09-11. Differences in product mix, geography and accounting can limit comparability.
Read URBN's case ↗| Measure | GAP | URBN |
|---|---|---|
| EV / EBITDA | 5.09× | 8.42× |
| Operating margin | 10.99% | 11.33% |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 1.65× | 0.70× |
The trade-off is less favourable ev / ebitda.
ANF financial period 2026-07-31. Published prices 2026-09-11. Differences in product mix, geography and accounting can limit comparability.
Read ANF's case ↗| Measure | GAP | ANF |
|---|---|---|
| EV / EBITDA | 5.09× | 7.62× |
| Operating margin | 10.99% | 13.66% |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 1.65× | 0.74× |
The trade-off is less favourable ev / ebitda, operating margin, net debt / ebitda.
VSCO financial period 2026-04-30. Published prices 2026-09-11. Differences in product mix, geography and accounting can limit comparability.
Read VSCO's case ↗| Measure | GAP | VSCO |
|---|---|---|
| EV / EBITDA | 5.09× | 15.44× |
| Operating margin | 10.99% | 4.84% |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 1.65× | 4.69× |
Check business mix, accounting and future growth before drawing an investment conclusion.
LULU financial period 2026-07-31. Published prices 2026-09-11. Differences in product mix, geography and accounting can limit comparability.
Read LULU's case ↗| Measure | GAP | LULU |
|---|---|---|
| EV / EBITDA | 5.09× | 4.65× |
| Operating margin | 10.99% | 17.76% |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 1.65× | 0.30× |
The trade-off is less favourable ev / ebitda.
BOOT financial period 2026-06-30. Published prices 2026-09-11. Differences in product mix, geography and accounting can limit comparability.
Read BOOT's case ↗| Measure | GAP | BOOT |
|---|---|---|
| EV / EBITDA | 5.09× | 12.53× |
| Operating margin | 10.99% | 13.61% |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 1.65× | 1.66× |
The trade-off is less favourable ev / ebitda, operating margin, net debt / ebitda.
BURL financial period 2026-07-31. Published prices 2026-09-11. Differences in product mix, geography and accounting can limit comparability.
Read BURL's case ↗| Measure | GAP | BURL |
|---|---|---|
| EV / EBITDA | 5.09× | 14.08× |
| Operating margin | 10.99% | 8.06% |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 1.65× | 3.62× |
The published target, its assumptions and alternative valuation methods.
Lower valuation, stronger profitability. Year-to-date profit has improved, but capital spending changes the cash picture.
Loss periods, gaps or differences in the earnings basis make P/E less useful here. This assessment uses operating profit, capital spending and the balance sheet instead. Loss years remain in the margin history. The earnings method could not pass its required checks; the cash-flow method passed its own input checks.
The assessment checks earnings and, where suitable, an alternative cash-flow approach. It still needs current financials, complete inputs and a model suitable for automatic publication. “Not rated” means those requirements are not met; it does not mean Hold.
Across 2 completed quarters since 2026-01-31, net income was 840.0m versus 409.0m in the matching prior-year periods (USD). Check whether the latest quarter changes that direction.
Review the evidence ↓The latest quarterly operating margin was 18.5%, +10.7 percentage points from a year earlier. Compare the sales and margin contributions below.
Review the evidence ↓Operating cash covers 1.23 times profit, but cash after capital spending covers 0.77 times. Cash generation is stronger before the investment bill is paid.
Review the evidence ↓Revenue changed -2.0% from the same quarter last year, through 2026-07-31. The previous quarter’s year-on-year change was +1.0%.
Review the evidence ↓Methods are considered by business suitability and completeness of evidence. The model does not select whichever produces the highest target.
| Method | Input checks | Outstanding requirements |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings and historical valuation | Incomplete | Release EPS is $1.97; statement-derived EPS is $3.55. The difference exceeds 5%; the earnings basis needs review before a rating is issued. |
| Cash flow across the cycle · Selected | Passed | Required inputs are available. Publication safeguards apply separately. |
This method keeps both weak and strong years in view. It values cash from the operations after tax, capital spending and working capital, then deducts net debt and other ownership claims.
The central operating margin is the median of up to five annual margins plus the latest four-quarter margin, including losses. It is reached over three years. Sales growth starts at the median of four quarterly year-on-year changes.
Starting sales growth is limited to −10% to +15% and moves towards 2% by year five. Depreciation must have a matching reported period and exclude impairment charges. An unrelated EBITDA-minus-EBIT difference is not used. The spending floor moves towards the median recorded capital-spending ratio, with a floor at depreciation. This historical total does not identify maintenance separately from expansion spending. Total capital spending must also cover depreciation plus the assets needed for extra sales. Working capital is funded in proportion to extra sales; falling sales do not automatically release cash.
The central rate is 8.02%, a model estimate of the after-tax cost of debt and equity funding. It is separate from the return needed for a Buy rating.
The USD Treasury reference is 4.96% on 2026-09-11. Price-return sensitivity to US stocks is 1.17 over 156 weeks; the model moves it one-third towards 1 to reduce reliance on a noisy historical estimate. A 5% equity risk premium is an explicit SM assumption. This gives an equity funding rate of 10.51%.
Debt uses 6.46% before tax: the higher of the observed annual interest-to-debt ratio and the Treasury rate plus an assumed 1.5 percentage points. That spread is a modelling assumption, not a quoted company bond yield. Debt represents 43.1% of the combined debt and quoted equity value. Debt book value approximates market value.
The weaker case adds two percentage points to the central discount rate. The stronger case subtracts one point. Continuing growth is 0%, 2% and 2.5% respectively. Price history, assumed risk premiums and accounting debt values have limits; regional risks can differ. Official Treasury observations ↗
Cash after the target date is discounted to that date. Earlier positive cash is assumed distributed, so it is not added to the target. Any earlier deficit after debt interest increases net debt. The model holds the share count and other ownership claims constant. It does not assume future buybacks, asset sales or a refinancing.
This is a going-concern cash-flow model. It cannot establish asset sale proceeds or restructuring recoveries. A negative equity result is shown as zero, reflecting limited liability rather than a liquidation estimate.
Buy: at least 22.9% price upside (the higher of 15% or half annualised volatility), at least as much upside as the weaker-case decline, and passing cash and debt checks. Sell: at least 15% central price downside. Hold: remaining rated cases. Dividends, fees and tax are excluded.
For Buy, operating cash must cover at least 80% of statement profit and cash after capital spending must be positive. Debt must be covered by cash, or net debt / EBITDA must be no more than 3 with interest cover of at least 3. The cash-flow method uses the central longer-run operating margin for these debt tests. A loss-making company must still have positive operating cash and cash after capital spending for Buy eligibility.
Publication safeguards. Model estimates below one quarter or above four times the current price require a separate valuation review. Cash-flow estimates also require review when more than 90% of their absolute present value comes from after year five. These are SM review thresholds; they do not cap the calculated value or move it towards the market price.
This is an automated research assessment. The policy has not yet been validated against subsequent stock returns. It does not account for your portfolio, tax position or investment needs.
New data refreshes the evidence. A formal review determines whether the published assessment changes. Editing the valuation controls below changes your scenario only. Saving your case preserves this dated assessment alongside your assumptions.
| Check | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Recent price | Passed | Weekly close dated 2026-09-11. |
| Current financials | Passed | Statements through 2026-07-31; factor prices dated 2026-09-11. |
| Price risk | Passed | Risk uses the latest 52 weekly price changes. |
| Operating history | Passed | 5 annual results, retaining operating losses and unusually strong years. |
| Quarterly operating results | Passed | Four quarters through 2026-07-31. |
| Cash-flow and ownership inputs | Passed | Capital spending, depreciation estimate, operating capital, debt, cash and other ownership claims are recorded. |
| Depreciation basis | Passed | Four matching quarters of operating income and reported depreciation are required. An unrelated EBITDA-minus-EBIT difference is not treated as depreciation. |
| Matching currency | Passed | USD statements and share price. |
| Operating totals | Passed | Quarterly sales and operating profit agree with the trailing snapshot within 5%. |
| Operating discount rate | Passed | The operating cash-flow discount rate needs a current USD Treasury rate, at least two years of matching market returns, and dated debt and share inputs. An equity return hurdle is not used as the company's funding cost. |
| Continuing growth and funding cost | Passed | The funding cost must exceed continuing growth in every valuation scenario. |
| Scenario consistency | Passed | The weaker, central and stronger assumptions must give an ordered range. When growth costs more capital than it earns, a tailored operating review is required before publishing a target. |
| Target publication review | Passed | The model estimate is within SM's automatic publication range of one quarter to four times the current price. This is a review threshold, not evidence that the market price is correct. |
| Cash-flow value dependence | Passed | Cash flows beyond year five account for 77.6% of the absolute present value. This is within SM's 90% automatic publication limit. |
| Investment assets and operating capital | Review needed | Recorded investments are material to equity value but have no reviewed valuation or tax treatment in this operating model. Financial investments must also be excluded from capital needed to fund sales growth. |
Model version: sm-assessment-14-operating-capital. Published price: $21.51 on 2026-09-11. The upside above uses the latest close. Review policy and original record ↓
A current target is not published. The outstanding checks must be resolved before a price disagreement can be assessed.
| Measure | At publication | Latest | Improvement threshold | Deterioration threshold | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterly sales growth | -1.99% | -1.99% | ≥ 3.01% | ≤ -6.99% | Within starting range |
| Quarterly operating margin | 18.52% | 18.52% | ≥ 20.52% | ≤ 16.52% | Within starting range |
| Operating cash / profit | 1.23× | 1.23× | ≥ 1.43× | ≤ 1.03× | Within starting range |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 1.65× | 1.65× | ≤ 1.15× | ≥ 2.15× | Within starting range |
New results, restatements, material disclosures and unresolved share changes require review. A sustained price change can change the rating comparison without changing the target. Company evidence, risk and uncertainty must still support the classification. Dividends are assessed separately where verified.
The effect of changing growth, margins and valuation assumptions.
Discounts cash after tax and investment. Growth, capital needs and the required return all matter.
Uses current positive statement earnings and peer P/E. Different earnings definitions or growth prospects can explain the gap.
Values operating earnings before depreciation. High maintenance spending can make this look more generous than cash-flow value.
Applies the peer price of sales. It does not require this company to earn the same margin as its peers.
Uses a longer-run operating margin with no sales growth. Maintenance investment is assumed to match depreciation.
Uses recent cash after capital spending. Temporary working-capital releases can make one period unusually strong.
Uses recorded common equity. Book value can differ considerably from realisable asset value.
Current-value references using the starting inputs. The published target has a future date and its own assumptions. These references are not averaged into it. User edits in the valuation section remain separate.
Use different methods to test the price. Compare their assumptions and results before drawing a conclusion.
Compare several scenarios before drawing a conclusion.
Green values are above the current share price; red values are below it. Colours describe this model comparison, not the chance of a return.
These are modelled amounts, not company guidance or analyst forecasts. “Later value” covers the period after year five.
| Method | Starting value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $31.06 | Five-year forecasts and a continuing value; uses your growth, profitability and discount assumptions. |
| Peer price / earnings | $41.40 | Trailing statement EPS of $3.5500 × the selected P/E. The starting multiple is the median of 12 same-industry peers. |
| Peer enterprise value / EBITDA | $40.07 | Apply the median of 12 industry peers to trailing EBITDA, then deduct net debt and other ownership claims to reach a value per common share. |
| Peer enterprise value / sales | $42.38 | Apply the median of 12 industry peers to trailing revenue, then deduct net debt and other ownership claims to reach a value per common share. |
| Steady operating profit | $5.60 | Hold sales flat, start with the median operating margin from 5 annual results, tax the profit and value it as a continuing annual amount. |
| Cash-yield reference | $38.92 | Cash after capital spending per current share divided by the required yield. The starting 7% yield is an editable illustration, not a market estimate. |
| Peer price / common book | $26.53 | Reported equity less preferred stock, per current share, multiplied by the median common-book multiple of 7 peers. |
Dots mark the selected values; bars show the lower and higher illustrations. The dashed line marks the latest close. These ranges are not confidence intervals. Several methods use the same financial inputs and peers; agreement is not independent confirmation. All are shown per common share in USD.
Funding needs, adverse conditions and the effect of a holding on your portfolio.
Review borrowing and company disclosures alongside interest rates and commodity markets.
Balance-sheet figures from 2026-09-11. Cash may be needed to run the business.
Illustration: interest rates rise by 1 percentage point on the stated portion of debt. Existing fixed rates and hedges may delay or reduce the effect. This is not a debt-maturity schedule.
Each dot is one shared week. Bond and commodity funds are price proxies; their returns also reflect fund construction and expenses.
Correlation ranges from −1 to +1. A relationship can change and may reflect broader market movements. It does not prove a customer, currency or commodity exposure.
• "Financial Risks—Our business is exposed to the risks of foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations and our hedging strategies may not be effective in mitigating those risks," andRead in the filing ↗
Compare your current mix with a proposed holding in GAP. Holdings entered here are used for this calculation and are not saved.
Shows contributions to variance using shared weekly observations. A negative contribution means a holding offset some movements over this period.
Results against forecasts, your saved research, review decisions and data checks.
The published assessment is suspended. See the data checks and review record.
Understand the business. Review sales, profit and cash generation. Open the evidence link beneath each conclusion.
Test the assumptions. A valuation is a scenario. Change growth, margins and the discount rate to see how much the result depends on them.
Keep track. Save your own reasons and conditions. Revisit them after results. Figures show their observation dates. Data notes explain unavailable information.
Follow the forecasts behind the current assessment. Earlier versions remain in the full record. Price movements alone do not settle the business case.
No forecast matching the current assessment has been recorded. Earlier forecasts, if any, remain in the full record. The published assessment and its review conditions remain available below.
Forecasts are frozen when recorded. Actuals use the matching full financial year or four reported quarters, on the forecast's stated profit basis. Dated results are retained; restatements are recorded separately. Forecasts made after the period began are identified. Revisions, overlapping periods and preview records are not independent evidence of forecasting skill.
Set measurable conditions for your investment case, then compare them with new company data.
Margin and cash conditions use the latest trailing statements where available. Revenue growth compares reported annual years. Factor figures through 2026-09-11.
Through 2026-07-31. Compare the next quarter with the same period a year earlier. Check whether growth speeds up or slows down.
Through 2026-07-31. Check whether the next results retain the latest margin. Separate recurring improvements from one-off gains.
Through 2026-07-31. Check the cumulative result as each new quarter is added. Compare the same number of quarters last year.
Compare growth with the previous year and the current forecast.
Check whether operating profit keeps pace with sales.
Check whether profit is turning into operating cash.
Check whether debt is falling relative to earnings.
Check whether analysts raised or lowered the same fiscal-period estimate.
Keep a dated copy of your reasoning, valuation assumptions and conditions. New saves preserve earlier versions.
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Stored financial statements changed; the revised figures need checking. The model version changed. Current data checks do not support an active rating. The published model version has been replaced. Record the new calculation basis even if the rating is unchanged.
| Measure | At publication | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterly sales growth | -1.99% | -1.99% | Within starting range |
| Quarterly operating margin | 18.52% | 18.52% | Within starting range |
| Operating cash / profit | 1.23× | 1.23× | Within starting range |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 1.65× | 1.65× | Within starting range |
Recheck the business, assumptions and valuation. The target keeps its original end date until that horizon expires. A routine data refresh does not issue a new rating.
New results, revised financial statements, a material company disclosure, a change in the valuation method or failing cash and debt checks trigger a review. Same-period guidance revisions require at least 5% for EPS or 10% for other measures. Consensus EPS revisions require 10% and at least three analysts.
A price-only signal must persist for 14 days across separate completed weeks. Rating changes normally wait at least 30 days and must clear five-percentage-point entry and exit bands. A direct Buy-to-Sell or Sell-to-Buy change requires material company evidence.
Missing essential data, an unresolved material event or a share-basis change can suspend a call immediately. An expired target or data check more than three days overdue is not shown as an active rating. Original assessments remain in the record.
A reviewed target normally changes only by 5% or more; a rating change or an expired horizon can also require a new assessment. These are explicit research-policy thresholds, not statistically proven trading rules. Policy sm-review-2-research.
| Published | Rating | Target | Target date | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 · 3 ↗ | Not rated | Suspended / unavailable | 2027-09-16 | Stored financial statements changed; the revised figures need checking. The model version changed. Current data checks do not support an active rating. The published model version has been replaced. Record the new calculation basis even if the rating is unchanged. |
| 2026-09-16 · 2 ↗ | Hold + Reduce | $16.73 | 2027-09-16 | The model version changed. The published model version has been replaced. Record the new calculation basis even if the rating is unchanged. The central target is 22.2% below the price. The stronger case offers 53.0% upside, exceeding the central downside; the negative view is qualified. |
| 2026-09-16 · 1 ↗ | Hold + Reduce | $16.73 | 2027-09-16 | First recorded assessment. |
Current data checks do not support an active rating.
Stored financial statements changed; the revised figures need checking.
Current data checks do not support an active rating.
Stored financial statements changed; the revised figures need checking.
The model version changed.
Current data checks do not support an active rating.
The published model version has been replaced. Record the new calculation basis even if the rating is unchanged.
The model version changed.
The published model version has been replaced. Record the new calculation basis even if the rating is unchanged.
The central target is 22.2% below the price. The stronger case offers 53.0% upside, exceeding the central downside; the negative view is qualified.
First recorded assessment.
Forecast errors in sales, operating profit and cash are recorded separately from share-price outcomes. Preview records never enter live accuracy figures.
There are no completed live operating forecasts to assess yet. A useful record takes time; historical fits and preview scenarios are not substituted for it.
| Recorded / model | Period ending | Measure | Forecast (USD) | Actual (USD) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16business-forecasts-2-period-basis · live | 2027-07-31 | Sales | 15,561,920,666 | — | Waiting for results |
| 2026-09-16business-forecasts-2-period-basis · live | 2027-07-31 | Operating profit | 1,454,177,538 | — | Waiting for results |
| 2026-09-16business-forecasts-2-period-basis · live | 2027-07-31 | Cash after capital spending | 884,701,817 | — | Waiting for results |
| 2026-09-16business-forecasts-2-period-basis · live | 2028-07-31 | Sales | 15,819,394,501 | — | Waiting for results |
| 2026-09-16business-forecasts-2-period-basis · live | 2028-07-31 | Operating profit | 1,218,260,643 | — | Waiting for results |
| 2026-09-16business-forecasts-2-period-basis · live | 2028-07-31 | Cash after capital spending | 701,722,342 | — | Waiting for results |
| 2026-09-16business-forecasts-2-period-basis · live | 2027-07-31 | Sales | 15,561,920,666 | — | Waiting for results |
| 2026-09-16business-forecasts-2-period-basis · live | 2027-07-31 | Operating profit | 1,454,177,538 | — | Waiting for results |
| 2026-09-16business-forecasts-2-period-basis · live | 2027-07-31 | Cash after capital spending | 884,701,817 | — | Waiting for results |
| 2026-09-16business-forecasts-2-period-basis · live | 2028-07-31 | Sales | 15,819,394,501 | — | Waiting for results |
| 2026-09-16business-forecasts-2-period-basis · live | 2028-07-31 | Operating profit | 1,218,260,643 | — | Waiting for results |
| 2026-09-16business-forecasts-2-period-basis · live | 2028-07-31 | Cash after capital spending | 701,722,342 | — | Waiting for results |
Forecasts are frozen when recorded. Actuals use the matching full financial year or four reported quarters, on the forecast's stated profit basis. Dated results are retained; restatements are recorded separately. Forecasts made after the period began are identified. Revisions, overlapping periods and preview records are not independent evidence of forecasting skill. Read the share-price assessment record ↗
Automated checks cover dates, units and accounting relationships. A matched filing fact confirms that reported amount and basis; it does not establish recurring earnings or validate a forecast.
Value operating cash flow or comparable earnings; deduct debt and other ownership claims where appropriate.
17 of 18 checks passed. 117 financial cells have a matched filing basis; 1 other recorded cells have not been matched to a standard filing fact here. Missing company-specific measures and forecast coverage are explained in their sections.
| Check | Status | What it checks |
|---|---|---|
| Price observations | Passed | Prices must be positive, finite, in date order and have no duplicate weeks. |
| Historical price basis | Passed | No material split or distribution discontinuity was found between the two price histories. |
| Price date | Passed | The latest completed close must be no more than 14 days old. |
| Business model | Passed | Value operating cash flow or comparable earnings; deduct debt and other ownership claims where appropriate. |
| Earnings and share units | Passed | Earnings, profit and weighted shares are reconciled before per-share growth is used. No conflicting per-share comparisons were found. |
| Balance-sheet totals | Passed | Assets must reconcile to liabilities and equity, allowing separately reported minority interests and 1% rounding tolerance. No conflicting complete balance sheets were found. |
| Consolidated depreciation | Passed | Depreciation from a cash-flow reconciliation is distinguished from expense components. Conflicting amounts are excluded until the statement establishes their scope. No unresolved component-versus-total conflict was found. |
| Statement currency | Passed | Valuation cash flows and the share price must use the same currency; amounts are not silently converted. |
| Publication dates | Passed | Future financial periods and future filing dates cannot enter the assessment. |
| Known reporting dates | Passed | 0 of the latest four quarters have no stored publication date. These cannot support a point-in-time claim. |
| Cash-flow identities | Passed | Operating cash plus negative capital spending must equal cash after capital spending. All comparable stored periods reconcile within 1%. |
| Operating-profit basis | Passed | 4 of the latest four quarters have an explicit reported operating-income basis. EBIT may include non-operating items; it is not automatically treated as operating income. |
| Filed and stored totals | Review needed | 5 trailing input totals differ from the stored snapshot. The matched filed totals are used in this report; original figures remain in the reconciliation table. |
| Ownership source reconciliation | Passed | No unresolved ownership source conflicts were found. |
| Financial period | Passed | The valuation needs a financial period no more than 150 days old. |
| Corporate-action basis | Passed | A split after the financial period needs a reviewed reconciliation of shares, earnings per share and the quoted price. |
| Share count | Passed | Per-share enterprise and book values require a positive current share count. |
| Ownership and debt amounts | Passed | Debt, cash, preferred stock and minority interests cannot be negative. |
| Input | Stored snapshot | Matched filed quarters |
|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1834000000 | 1535000000 |
| Capital spending | -724000000 | -578000000 |
| Cash after capital spending | 1110000000 | 957000000 |
| Preferred stock | 0 | |
| Minority interest | 0 |
SM Virtual Analyst is an automated research report for general information. Its model ratings and price targets are not personal investment advice, an offer to trade, or a guarantee of value or return. The report does not consider your financial circumstances, objectives, tax position or capacity for loss.
Reported figures can be delayed, incomplete, corrected or restated. Source checks confirm specific reported amounts and accounting relationships; they do not audit a company, establish recurring earnings or prove that a forecast is accurate. Missing information is not assumed to be zero unless a particular illustration expressly says so.
Valuations depend on the stated business model, assumptions and available data. Scenario ranges are illustrations, not probabilities, confidence intervals or limits on loss. Ratings use the disclosed review policy; they are not an independently validated prediction of future returns. Past performance and historical comparisons do not predict future results. An investment can lose its entire value.
Prices, financial periods, publication dates, model versions and review dates are shown in the report. The dated published assessment is separate from editable valuation illustrations. Unless expressly stated otherwise, price comparisons exclude dividends, fees and taxes. Check the latest company filings and subsequent events before making a decision, and seek qualified advice when needed.
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