Supporting evidence
The latest quarterly operating margin was 43.9%, +8.7 percentage points from a year earlier. Compare the sales and margin contributions below.
Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR
A background review must record this assessment before a rating is published.
The assessment, supporting evidence and main risks.
A background review must record this assessment before a rating is published.
Outstanding checks and valuation methods โMore sales are becoming operating profit, but year-to-date profit is lower.
Company observations use the financial and market dates shown in the evidence. They may be newer than the published assessment.
The latest quarterly operating margin was 43.9%, +8.7 percentage points from a year earlier. Compare the sales and margin contributions below.
Across 2 completed quarters since 2025-12-31, net income was 2,317.2m versus 2,513.1m in the matching prior-year periods (CNY). Check whether the latest quarter changes that direction.
Across 2 completed quarters since 2025-12-31, net income was 2,317.2m versus 2,513.1m in the matching prior-year periods (CNY). Check whether the latest quarter changes that direction.
The latest quarterly operating margin was 43.9%, +8.7 percentage points from a year earlier. Compare the sales and margin contributions below.
Check the supporting chartAcross 2 completed quarters since 2025-12-31, net income was 2,317.2m versus 2,513.1m in the matching prior-year periods (CNY). Check whether the latest quarter changes that direction.
Check the supporting chartRevenue changed +4.1% from the same quarter last year, through 2026-06-30. The previous quarterโs year-on-year change was +5.5%.
Check the supporting chartNet income was 1,326.3m, compared with 1,244.5m in the same quarter last year. Amounts are in CNY.
Check the supporting chartOf the latest 4 comparable quarters, 3 beat the estimate and 1 missed it. Check how price responded; a beat alone is not a reason to buy.
Check the supporting chartWeighted diluted shares changed +0.1%. Compare this with buyback spending; splits and acquisitions can also change the count.
Check the supporting chartDebt less cash was -6,868.1m at 2026-09-18.
Check the supporting chartValuation comments use the starting assumptions. Related findings can reflect the same underlying change; they are not separate votes or a probability of success.
SM Virtual Analyst is an automated review of stored company results and market data. The views below describe the available evidence and identify what to check next.
Revenue, profit, cash generation and the operating measures behind them.
Follow the operating evidence, compare results with recorded forecasts, and check what funds growth.
The latest reporting periods, earnings quality and the longer financial record.
Start with the latest quarters, then check whether the longer record supports the same view.
Compare completed quarters with the same periods a year earlier. Annual year-end: 2025-12-31.
Reported revenue in CNY. Growth can include acquisitions, exchange-rate changes and price changes.
Operating profit shows the business before financing and tax. Net income can also reflect asset sales and other one-off items.
Latest quarter against the same quarter last year. The sales effect holds the old margin fixed; the remaining change comes from the margin. These two amounts add up to the change in operating profit.
Cash can move sharply between quarters. Check the four-quarter comparison and working-capital changes before drawing a conclusion.
Same quarter one year earlier. Receivables and inventory are balances at the reporting date; sales cover the quarter. Faster growth can tie up cash, but acquisitions and payment timing can also explain a change.
Year-to-date comparisons require every completed quarter since the annual year-end and a matching prior-year period. Missing periods are not treated as zero. Figures may include subsequent restatements.
Annual revenue changed +11.1% between the latest two reported years.
See the figures โOperating profit was 33.2% of revenue, a change of +11.2 percentage points.
See the figures โOperating cash flow was 1.05 times net income. Working capital and non-cash charges can explain the difference.
See the figures โWeighted diluted shares changed +0.1%. Compare this with buyback spending; splits and acquisitions can also change the count.
See the figures โReported financial years. Amounts in CNY.
The proportion of sales left as operating profit and cash after capital spending.
Cash after capital spending still has to cover debt repayments and other commitments.
Cash spent, shown as positive amounts. Compare buybacks with changes in the diluted share count.
Weighted diluted shares from the annual statements. Share splits, acquisitions and employee awards can also change the total.
Inventory and receivables as a percentage of annual sales. Increasing amounts can tie up cash; business seasonality also matters.
| Financial year | Revenue | Operating profit | Net income | Operating cash | Cash after capital spending | Diluted shares | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-12-31 | 2473061000.0 | -1020602000.0 | -1523657000.0 | -923965000.0 | -934383000.0 | โ | Date unavailable |
| 2020-12-31 | 2580820000.0 | -3614603000.0 | -3470932000.0 | 574742000.0 | 521678000.0 | โ | Date unavailable |
| 2021-12-31 | 4657019000.0 | -3795943000.0 | -3654528000.0 | -211419000.0 | -254639000.0 | โ | 2022-03-01 |
| 2022-12-31 | 6733644000.0 | -162002000.0 | 406762000.0 | -15520000.0 | -101206000.0 | โ | 2023-03-08 |
| 2023-12-31 | 8436159000.0 | 997429000.0 | 2212888000.0 | 2269646000.0 | 2169302000.0 | 1058117573.0 | 2024-03-07 |
| 2024-12-31 | 11238638000.0 | 2474980000.0 | 3069849000.0 | 2970125000.0 | 2895158000.0 | 1045111102.0 | 2025-03-05 |
| 2025-12-31 | 12489859000.0 | 4146198000.0 | 4408169000.0 | 4626880000.0 | 4497166000.0 | 1046408634.0 | 2026-03-12 |
Amounts use each statementโs reported currency. Historical figures can include later restatements. Weighted diluted shares are an annual earnings measure, not the current share count used for valuation.
Performance, earnings and valuation compared with the market and other companies.
Compare reported earnings, the marketโs response and changes in expectations.
3 beats and 1 misses across the last 4 comparable quarters. Earnings-release figures may use an adjusted basis and differ from the financial statements.
Weekly prices are matched only after a recorded results date. A reporting-week move includes other news. EPS from earnings releases may differ from statutory diluted EPS. Historical revisions can change this comparison; it is not a trading backtest.
The published target, its assumptions and alternative valuation methods.
More sales are becoming operating profit, but year-to-date profit is lower. More sales are becoming operating profit, but year-to-date profit is lower.
Loss periods, gaps or differences in the earnings basis make P/E less useful here. This assessment uses operating profit, capital spending and the balance sheet instead. Loss years remain in the margin history.
The assessment checks earnings and, where suitable, an alternative cash-flow approach. It still needs current financials, complete inputs and a model suitable for automatic publication. โNot ratedโ means those requirements are not met; it does not mean Hold.
The latest quarterly operating margin was 43.9%, +8.7 percentage points from a year earlier. Compare the sales and margin contributions below.
Review the evidence โRevenue changed +4.1% from the same quarter last year, through 2026-06-30. The previous quarterโs year-on-year change was +5.5%.
Review the evidence โAcross 2 completed quarters since 2025-12-31, net income was 2,317.2m versus 2,513.1m in the matching prior-year periods (CNY). Check whether the latest quarter changes that direction.
Review the evidence โMethods are considered by business suitability and completeness of evidence. The model does not select whichever produces the highest target.
| Method | Input checks | Outstanding requirements |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings and historical valuation | Incomplete | A positive weekly close from the last 14 days is required. Four consecutive quarters of revenue and profit in USD are required, matching the share-price currency. The latest quarter and financial snapshot must agree, with statements no more than 150 days old and factor prices no more than 14 days old. At least three consecutive annual results in USD are needed to check whether recent profit margins are repeatable. P/E is usable in 0 of 0 weeks. At least 52 usable weeks and 70% coverage are required; excluding too many loss or missing weeks would bias the target. Positive trailing earnings-release EPS must cover the same four quarters as the statements and be available at the latest weekly close. 52 consecutive weekly price changes are required. Each of the latest four quarters needs a comparable revenue figure from a year earlier. |
| Cash flow across the cycle ยท Selected | Incomplete | A positive weekly close from the last 14 days is required. The latest quarter and financial snapshot must agree, with statements no more than 150 days old and factor prices no more than 14 days old. 52 consecutive weekly price changes are required. At least three consecutive annual USD results with sales, operating profit and capital spending are required. Four consecutive quarters of operating profit and sales, with year-on-year revenue comparisons, are needed. Recorded cash-flow, investment, debt, cash, preferred stock, minority interests and share-count inputs are required; missing amounts are not assumed to be zero. Missing: revenue (trailing twelve months), ebit (trailing twelve months), ebitda (trailing twelve months), capital expenditure (trailing twelve months), interest expense (trailing twelve months), operating cash flow (trailing twelve months), fcf (trailing twelve months). Four matching quarters of operating income and reported depreciation are required. An unrelated EBITDA-minus-EBIT difference is not treated as depreciation. |
This method keeps both weak and strong years in view. It values cash from the operations after tax, capital spending and working capital, then deducts net debt and other ownership claims.
The central operating margin is the median of up to five annual margins plus the latest four-quarter margin, including losses. It is reached over three years. Sales growth starts at the median of four quarterly year-on-year changes.
Starting sales growth is limited to โ10% to +15% and moves towards 2% by year five. Depreciation must have a matching reported period and exclude impairment charges. An unrelated EBITDA-minus-EBIT difference is not used. The spending floor moves towards the median recorded capital-spending ratio, with a floor at depreciation. This historical total does not identify maintenance separately from expansion spending. Total capital spending must also cover depreciation plus the assets needed for extra sales. Working capital is funded in proportion to extra sales; falling sales do not automatically release cash.
The central required return is 12%, an SM assumption rather than a measured cost of capital. The weaker case uses 14% with no continuing growth; the stronger case uses 10% with 2.5% continuing growth. Recovery margins, growth and spending also change in each scenario.
Cash after the target date is discounted to that date. Earlier positive cash is assumed distributed, so it is not added to the target. Any earlier deficit after debt interest increases net debt. The model holds the share count and other ownership claims constant. It does not assume future buybacks, asset sales or a refinancing.
This is a going-concern cash-flow model. It cannot establish asset sale proceeds or restructuring recoveries. A negative equity result is shown as zero, reflecting limited liability rather than a liquidation estimate.
Buy requires at least 15% upside, a higher threshold for volatile stocks, and satisfactory cash, debt and weaker-case checks. Sell requires at least 15% central price downside. Hold covers the remaining rated cases. Failed data checks produce โNot ratedโ.
For Buy, operating cash must cover at least 80% of statement profit and cash after capital spending must be positive. Debt must be covered by cash, or net debt / EBITDA must be no more than 3 with interest cover of at least 3. The cash-flow method uses the central longer-run operating margin for these debt tests. A loss-making company must still have positive operating cash and cash after capital spending for Buy eligibility.
Publication safeguards. Model estimates below one quarter or above four times the current price require a separate valuation review. Cash-flow estimates also require review when more than 90% of their absolute present value comes from after year five. These are SM review thresholds; they do not cap the calculated value or move it towards the market price.
This is an automated research assessment. The policy has not yet been validated against subsequent stock returns. It does not account for your portfolio, tax position or investment needs.
New data refreshes the evidence. A formal review determines whether the published assessment changes. Editing the valuation controls below changes your scenario only. Saving your case preserves this dated assessment alongside your assumptions.
| Check | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Recent price | Review needed | A positive weekly close from the last 14 days is required. |
| Current financials | Review needed | The latest quarter and financial snapshot must agree, with statements no more than 150 days old and factor prices no more than 14 days old. |
| Price risk | Review needed | 52 consecutive weekly price changes are required. |
| Operating history | Review needed | At least three consecutive annual USD results with sales, operating profit and capital spending are required. |
| Quarterly operating results | Review needed | Four consecutive quarters of operating profit and sales, with year-on-year revenue comparisons, are needed. |
| Cash-flow and ownership inputs | Review needed | Recorded cash-flow, investment, debt, cash, preferred stock, minority interests and share-count inputs are required; missing amounts are not assumed to be zero. Missing: revenue (trailing twelve months), ebit (trailing twelve months), ebitda (trailing twelve months), capital expenditure (trailing twelve months), interest expense (trailing twelve months), operating cash flow (trailing twelve months), fcf (trailing twelve months). |
| Depreciation basis | Review needed | Four matching quarters of operating income and reported depreciation are required. An unrelated EBITDA-minus-EBIT difference is not treated as depreciation. |
| Matching currency | Passed | USD statements and share price. |
| Price observations | Review needed | Prices must be positive, finite, in date order and have no duplicate weeks. |
| Price date | Review needed | The latest completed close must be no more than 14 days old. |
| Statement currency | Review needed | Valuation cash flows and the share price must use the same currency; amounts are not silently converted. |
| Depositary share basis | Review needed | An ADR or ADS needs a sourced conversion between ordinary shares and the quoted depositary shares. A plausible price or P/E alone does not verify that conversion. |
| Financial period | Review needed | The valuation needs a financial period no more than 150 days old. |
Model version: sm-assessment-14-operating-capital. Published price: $ on . The upside above uses the latest close. Review policy and original record โ
A current target is not published. The outstanding checks must be resolved before a price disagreement can be assessed.
Numerical review thresholds have not been recorded for this assessment.
New results, restatements, material disclosures and unresolved share changes require review. A sustained price change can change the rating comparison without changing the target. Company evidence, risk and uncertainty must still support the classification. Dividends are assessed separately where verified.
Funding needs, adverse conditions and the effect of a holding on your portfolio.
Review borrowing and company disclosures alongside interest rates and commodity markets.
Balance-sheet figures from 2026-09-18. Cash may be needed to run the business.
Illustration: interest rates rise by 1 percentage point on the stated portion of debt. Existing fixed rates and hedges may delay or reduce the effect. This is not a debt-maturity schedule.
Compare your current mix with a proposed holding in YMM. Holdings entered here are used for this calculation and are not saved.
Shows contributions to variance using shared weekly observations. A negative contribution means a holding offset some movements over this period.
Results against forecasts, your saved research, review decisions and data checks.
A background review must record this assessment before a rating is published.
Understand the business. Review sales, profit and cash generation. Open the evidence link beneath each conclusion.
Test the assumptions. A valuation is a scenario. Change growth, margins and the discount rate to see how much the result depends on them.
Keep track. Save your own reasons and conditions. Revisit them after results. Figures show their observation dates. Data notes explain unavailable information.
Follow the forecasts behind the current assessment. Earlier versions remain in the full record. Price movements alone do not settle the business case.
No forecast matching the current assessment has been recorded. Earlier forecasts, if any, remain in the full record. The published assessment and its review conditions remain available below.
Forecasts are frozen when recorded. Actuals use the matching full financial year or four reported quarters, on the forecast's stated profit basis. Dated results are retained; restatements are recorded separately. Forecasts made after the period began are identified. Revisions, overlapping periods and preview records are not independent evidence of forecasting skill.
Set measurable conditions for your investment case, then compare them with new company data.
Margin and cash conditions use the latest trailing statements where available. Revenue growth compares reported annual years. Factor figures through 2026-09-18.
Through 2026-06-30. Compare the next quarter with the same period a year earlier. Check whether growth speeds up or slows down.
Through 2026-06-30. Check whether the next results retain the latest margin. Separate recurring improvements from one-off gains.
Through 2026-06-30. Check the cumulative result as each new quarter is added. Compare the same number of quarters last year.
Compare growth with the previous year and the current forecast.
Check whether operating profit keeps pace with sales.
Check whether profit is turning into operating cash.
Keep a dated copy of your reasoning, valuation assumptions and conditions. New saves preserve earlier versions.
Conditions are checked against the latest available figures when you open this report. This does not place trades or send email alerts.
Sign in to keep your research and review changes over time.
The report can be explored now. A formal background review records the first rating and its reasons.
Recheck the business, assumptions and valuation. The target keeps its original end date until that horizon expires. A routine data refresh does not issue a new rating.
New results, revised financial statements, a material company disclosure, a change in the valuation method or failing cash and debt checks trigger a review. Same-period guidance revisions require at least 5% for EPS or 10% for other measures. Consensus EPS revisions require 10% and at least three analysts.
A price-only signal must persist for 14 days across separate completed weeks. Rating changes normally wait at least 30 days and must clear five-percentage-point entry and exit bands. A direct Buy-to-Sell or Sell-to-Buy change requires material company evidence.
Missing essential data, an unresolved material event or a share-basis change can suspend a call immediately. An expired target or data check more than three days overdue is not shown as an active rating. Original assessments remain in the record.
A reviewed target normally changes only by 5% or more; a rating change or an expired horizon can also require a new assessment. These are explicit research-policy thresholds, not statistically proven trading rules. Policy sm-review-2-research.
Forecast errors in sales, operating profit and cash are recorded separately from share-price outcomes. Preview records never enter live accuracy figures.
There are no completed live operating forecasts to assess yet. A useful record takes time; historical fits and preview scenarios are not substituted for it.
Forecasts are frozen when recorded. Actuals use the matching full financial year or four reported quarters, on the forecast's stated profit basis. Dated results are retained; restatements are recorded separately. Forecasts made after the period began are identified. Revisions, overlapping periods and preview records are not independent evidence of forecasting skill. Read the share-price assessment record โ
Automated checks cover dates, units and accounting relationships. A matched filing fact confirms that reported amount and basis; it does not establish recurring earnings or validate a forecast.
Value operating cash flow or comparable earnings; deduct debt and other ownership claims where appropriate.
11 of 19 checks passed. 0 financial cells have a matched filing basis; 93 other recorded cells have not been matched to a standard filing fact here. Missing company-specific measures and forecast coverage are explained in their sections.
| Check | Status | What it checks |
|---|---|---|
| Price observations | Review needed | Prices must be positive, finite, in date order and have no duplicate weeks. |
| Historical price basis | Passed | No material split or distribution discontinuity was found between the two price histories. |
| Price date | Review needed | The latest completed close must be no more than 14 days old. |
| Business model | Passed | Value operating cash flow or comparable earnings; deduct debt and other ownership claims where appropriate. |
| Earnings and share units | Review needed | Earnings, profit and weighted shares are reconciled before per-share growth is used. Unverified comparisons are omitted for 2022-12-31, 2025-09-30, 2025-12-31, 2026-03-31, 2026-06-30. |
| Balance-sheet totals | Review needed | Assets must reconcile to liabilities and equity, allowing separately reported minority interests and 1% rounding tolerance. Check 2024-06-30, 2024-09-30, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31, 2026-03-31. |
| Consolidated depreciation | Passed | Depreciation from a cash-flow reconciliation is distinguished from expense components. Conflicting amounts are excluded until the statement establishes their scope. No unresolved component-versus-total conflict was found. |
| Statement currency | Review needed | Valuation cash flows and the share price must use the same currency; amounts are not silently converted. |
| Publication dates | Passed | Future financial periods and future filing dates cannot enter the assessment. |
| Known reporting dates | Passed | 0 of the latest four quarters have no stored publication date. These cannot support a point-in-time claim. |
| Cash-flow identities | Passed | Operating cash plus negative capital spending must equal cash after capital spending. All comparable stored periods reconcile within 1%. |
| Depositary share basis | Review needed | An ADR or ADS needs a sourced conversion between ordinary shares and the quoted depositary shares. A plausible price or P/E alone does not verify that conversion. |
| Operating-profit basis | Passed | 4 of the latest four quarters have an explicit reported operating-income basis. EBIT may include non-operating items; it is not automatically treated as operating income. |
| Filed and stored totals | Review needed | 7 trailing input totals differ from the stored snapshot. The matched filed totals are used in this report; original figures remain in the reconciliation table. |
| Ownership source reconciliation | Passed | No unresolved ownership source conflicts were found. |
| Financial period | Review needed | The valuation needs a financial period no more than 150 days old. |
| Corporate-action basis | Passed | A split after the financial period needs a reviewed reconciliation of shares, earnings per share and the quoted price. |
| Share count | Passed | Per-share enterprise and book values require a positive current share count. |
| Ownership and debt amounts | Passed | Debt, cash, preferred stock and minority interests cannot be negative. |
| Input | Stored snapshot | Matched filed quarters |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 12727182461 | |
| Gross profit ttm | 8404980408 | |
| Operating income | 4272035759 | |
| Ebitda ttm | 4715322746 | |
| Net income | 4198650293 | |
| Capital spending | -68169000 | |
| Interest expense | 0 |
SM Virtual Analyst is an automated research report for general information. Its model ratings and price targets are not personal investment advice, an offer to trade, or a guarantee of value or return. The report does not consider your financial circumstances, objectives, tax position or capacity for loss.
Reported figures can be delayed, incomplete, corrected or restated. Source checks confirm specific reported amounts and accounting relationships; they do not audit a company, establish recurring earnings or prove that a forecast is accurate. Missing information is not assumed to be zero unless a particular illustration expressly says so.
Valuations depend on the stated business model, assumptions and available data. Scenario ranges are illustrations, not probabilities, confidence intervals or limits on loss. Ratings use the disclosed review policy; they are not an independently validated prediction of future returns. Past performance and historical comparisons do not predict future results. An investment can lose its entire value.
Prices, financial periods, publication dates, model versions and review dates are shown in the report. The dated published assessment is separate from editable valuation illustrations. Unless expressly stated otherwise, price comparisons exclude dividends, fees and taxes. Check the latest company filings and subsequent events before making a decision, and seek qualified advice when needed.
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